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000
FXUS65 KVEF 151634
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
934 AM PDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY WITH LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS. A PACIFIC TROUGH MAY
PRODUCE INCREASED WINDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER GRIDS THIS MORNING AS
CLOUDS DECREASED OVER MOHAVE COUNTY AND THERE WAS A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES THAN FORECAST.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN AZ WILL REMAIN EAST OF
MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
255 AM PDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A GENERALLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE CWA. HOWEVER A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN OVER MOHAVE COUNTY THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST
IR SAT PICT. THE LATEST HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A LIGHT
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP THROUGH SUNRISE HOWEVER THIS MOISTURE/
INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
THUS PLACING THE MAIN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO THE EAST OF THE CWA
BEFORE THE DAYTIME HEATING TAKES PLACE. HOWEVER CURRENT GHOST
POPS...NON MENTION IN THE FORECAST...OVER PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY
STILL LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY. LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOON/
EVENINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OR ADVISORY
LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED...DEPICTING AND UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MINIMAL
DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL MEANDER RIGHT AROUND
CLIMO NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE OVERALL DEPTH OF THE FEATURE
HAS LESSENED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO HAVE DECREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE ANY FIRE WX
CONCERNS LOOK MARGINAL...BUT NOT CERTAINLY OUT OF THE QUESTION STILL
BEING 5 DAYS OUT AND A LOT OF ROOM FOR CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND START OUT INITIALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST...THEN
BECOMING SOLID OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING THIS TRANSITION...AS THERE LOOKS TO BE JUST
ENOUGH OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO FORCE CONFIG#4 BEFORE WINDS SWING
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE THE PAST COUPLE
MONTHS...AND THE BEST OPTION IS TO SHOOT FOR MID AFTERNOON AND
CLOSELY MONITOR ACARS DATA AND PERIODICALLY GET LIDAR DATA FROM KLAS
TO TRY AND CATCH THE TRANSITION BEGINNING ALOFT SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE
SUFFICIENT LEAD TIME FOR A LOW IMPACT CONFIG CHANGE. ONCE DIRECTION
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY THOUGH...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND
15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS UP TO 25 KTS ON AVERAGE. SKIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CLEAR A FEW CU POPPING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
INCREASED AFTERNOON WINDS MAY BE SEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE DISTRICT AND WILL BE
MONITORING THIS CLOSELY AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK.

REFERENCING THE LAST DISCUSSION...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS BEEN SEEN OVER MOHAVE COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND ALTHOUGH A
LIGHT SHOWER MAY BE SEEN BEFORE MORNING...EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TO BE
EAST OF THE DISTRICT BY MID MORNING/AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MOJAVE COUNTY FOR TODAY.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HARRISON
PREV DISCUSSION...JENSEN/KENNEDY

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