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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS65 KVEF 100302
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
802 PM PDT Tue Apr 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry conditions with a warming trend are expected
through the remainder of the workweek. Increasing southerly winds
are expected Friday afternoon which will last through the weekend as
a weather disturbance moves through. Temperatures cool over the
weekend with light showers possible...especially in the higher
terrain.
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&&

.UPDATE...
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Winds across the region are finally settling down with
light winds expected overnight and Wednesday. The exception will
be in the Colorado River Valley where gusty winds 25-30 mph are
expected to develop Wednesday morning. Otherwise, expect a clear
night with seasonably cool temperatures in the morning. A forecast
update for tonight and Wednesday is out.
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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
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140 PM PDT Tue Apr 9 2024...

.DISCUSSION...Winds have started to weaken within the lower CRV so
am going to cancel the Lake Wind Advisory early. However, north
winds will persist into Wednesday with gusts of 20-30 mph. Elsewhere
tomorrow, those north winds for the most part will be less than 15
mph.

As the ridge moves over the region we are looking at the the warmest
temperatures this year so far. Probability of Las Vegas exceeding 80
degrees stands at 85% tomorrow. Probability of Las Vegas exceeding
85 degrees Thursday is 76% and Friday stands at 88%.

Our Spring roller coaster continues as ensemble simulations show the
next deep trough digging south from the Gulf of Alaska off the West
Coast Thursday and Friday. Initial affect from the trough will be
surface winds shifting out of the southeast to south Thursday.
Strongest winds preceding this trough will occur Friday and
Saturday. Highest confidence in the need for a wind headline would
be Friday, but Saturday can not be ruled out.

Consensus in the ensembles based on the latest cluster analysis is
for a slower trough arrival into the region. That puts the area of
heaviest precipitation through central California and into the
southern Sierra Saturday into Saturday night. Although, some light
showers may extend as far east as the Spring Mountains and south
central Nevada. Trough will be weakening as it moves inland over the
area Sunday and Monday. There will be at least a slight chance of
showers for the higher terrain. Based on the last two systems that
moved through the NBM did a poor job capturing the chance of showers
several days out. Imagine the NBM will start capturing that risk
better in the coming days.

Following the late week warm up, temperatures will hover closer to
normal Saturday-Tuesday.
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&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will favor a northerly direction
through approximately 03Z, varying between 330 and 030. 15 to 20
knot wind gusts will drop off during the afternoon with 8 to 12 knot
northerly winds continuing into the early evening hours. Winds will
swing around to the west-southwest after sunset in a typical diurnal
fashion before becoming light and variable during the early morning
hours on Wednesday. Light northeasterly winds will return around 18Z
on Wednesday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...The remaining Las Vegas Valley TAF sites will favor a
northerly direction through the early evening hours with wind gusts
dropping off during the afternoon hours. Winds will become
relatively light, 10 knots or less, and will follow typical diurnal
trends after approximately 03Z. Light northwesterly winds will
prevail at KBIH through Wednesday morning. Winds at KDAG will remain
relatively light, 10 knots or less, and will follow typical diurnal
directional trends with light and variable winds as they transition.
Winds at the Colorado River Valley TAF sites will continue to favor
a northerly direction (330 to 030) with 20 to 30 knot wind gusts
into the early afternoon hours. After sunset winds at KEED will
shift to a more northwesterly direction while KIFP becomes more
northeasterly through the overnight hours. 15 to 25 knot northerly
wind gusts will return to the Colorado River Valley TAF sites on
Wednesday morning.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Salmen

DISCUSSION...Pierce
AVIATION...Stessman

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