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000
FXUS65 KVEF 231918
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1218 PM PDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy conditions are expected much of the week along
with a gradual cooling trend as two low pressure systems move
through the region. The strongest winds are expected to be in
western San Bernardino County and a Wind Advisory has been issued
for that area. By Friday and Saturday, temperatures will fall below
late April normals, and there will be a chance of showers mainly
along and north of I-40.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Friday.

A low pressure system, currently in the Eastern Pacific near
California, will track eastward over the next few days and enter the
Southwest United States. Another system, currently located in the
eastern Gulf of Alaska, will follow shortly behind the first system
and dive south into the Great Basin by Friday. The orientation of
the low pressure systems and enhancement of a low level jet will
result in increased southwesterly to westerly winds across most of
the forecast area from Wednesday through Friday. The strongest winds
are expected to be in western San Bernardino County, where there is
a greater than 90 percent chance of wind gusts in excess of 40 mph.
For this reason, a Wind Advisory has been issued from 5 PM Wednesday
to 11 PM PDT Friday for western San Bernardino County. Strong winds
and reduced visibility due to blowing dust may create hazardous
travel conditions on Interstates 15 and 40. Other sections of the
forecast area may reach Wind Advisory criteria, but these winds
should be mainly confined to high terrain and have few impacts.

Another point of interest in the short term is the return of
precipitation potential. There is a low end chance of seeing showers
in Esmeralda County this afternoon. However, increased moisture and
instability associated with the low brings greater chances for snow
showers in the mountains and rain showers and thunderstorms in lower
terrain tomorrow for Inyo and Esmeralda Counties. By Thursday and
Friday, PWATs rise to around half an inch for most of the area,
which is over 140 percent of normal for this time of year. POPs
become most widespread on Friday as the trough axis moves through
with the greatest chances in the southern Great Basin and northern
Mohave County, generally north of Las Vegas. Las Vegas itself has a
37 percent chance of receiving at least 0.01 inch of rain on Friday.

Lastly, temperatures will decrease through Friday as heights fall
aloft with the approaching low pressure systems. Today`s highs are
forecast to be above average, decreasing to near average by
Thursday, then several degrees below average by Friday. For Las
Vegas, this means highs in the mid 70s by Friday.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.

The low pressure system exits to the east on Saturday, clearing out
all precipitation potential for the area except for some lingering
showers in northern Lincoln and Mohave Counties. PWATs should return
to near seasonal averages. Heights rise as ridging develops early
next week, resulting in increasing temperatures through next
Wednesday. Discrepancies remain between models about how much
temperatures will rise as it depends upon the intensity of the
ridging and how the timing and location of a low over the Pacific
Northwest will affect ridge development.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Breezy southerly winds with gusts to
around 20 knots will persist today before easing somewhat late in
the overnight hours. Gusts will resume tomorrow morning with peak
gusts again in the 20 knot range that will continue through sundown.
Skies will be mostly clear through the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Breezy south or southwesterly winds will be the primary
focus for most of the regional TAF sites, with afternoon gusts of 20
to 25 knots that persist through the early evening. Strongest gusts
will be focused near KDAG where gusts may approach 30 knots. Similar
conditions expected tomorrow though increasing shower activity is
expected around KBIH and the Sierra vicinity with possible mountain
obscuration possible late in the afternoon and evening and isolated
thunderstorm activity.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meltzer
AVIATION...Outler

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