Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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AZZ001>003-036-CAZ519>527-NVZ014-022-100700-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1100 PM PST FRI NOV 18 2016

...EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
SAN BERNARDINO AND WESTERN INYO COUNTIES...

SYNOPSIS...

NOVEMBER HAS STARTED OUT VERY WARM AND VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA.
MCCARRAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN LAS VEGAS HAS RECORDED THREE
RECORD HIGHS, TWO RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, AND SEVEN DAYS
AT OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES THIS MONTH (ONE DAY SHORT OF THE RECORD). THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH IS 66.8 DEGREES (THROUGH NOVEMBER
17), WHICH IS 10.4 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.  THE OBSERVATION STATION
IN NEEDLES HAS RECORDED TWO RECORD HIGHS AND TWO RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THIS MONTH, WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 10.6 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MONTH. IN GENERAL, TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 6
TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THIS MONTH ACROSS THE AREA...AND OUTSIDE
OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN SIERRA...NO PRECIPITATION
HAS FALLEN SO FAR. HOWEVER...A STORM SYSTEM IS POISED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY
BRING MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE MOST RECENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATED THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA REMAIN IN D4, OR EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT.
EXTREME DROUGHT, OR D3 CONDITIONS, EXISTS ACROSS THE OWENS VALLEY,
WHITE MOUNTAINS, AND WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY, CALIFORNIA.
SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS, OR D2, EXIST ACROSS MOST OF ESMERALDA
COUNTY, CENTRAL INYO COUNTY, AND CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. THE
REST OF ESMERALDA COUNTY, SOUTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY, EASTERN INYO
COUNTY, MOST OF EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY, AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTY ARE IN D1, OR MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE REST OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS COUNTY WARNING AREA, EXCEPT
FOR NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY AND NORTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY, IS
IN D0, OR ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DUE TO THE SEVERITY OF THE ONGOING DROUGHT, DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

THE LATEST SEASONAL FORECAST (DECEMBER 2016 TO FEBRUARY 2017) ISSUED
BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SHOWS THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE
IN BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THERE IS ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS THREE-MONTH PERIOD ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... AGRICULTURAL

PER EXECUTIVE ORDER, THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA NOW REQUIRES IRRIGATION
DISTRICTS SERVING 10,000 ACRES OR MORE TO FILE WATER MANAGEMENT
PLANS. ORIGINALLY, THIS WAS REQUIRED FOR DISTRICTS SERVING 25,000 OR
MORE ACRES. THE STATE`S DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES WILL ASSESS
THESE PLANS IN AN EFFORT TO DETERMINE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF
CONSERVATION EFFORTS AND WATER SHORTAGE CONTINGENCIES.

LADWP AND INYO COUNTY SUPERVISORS COULD NOT AGREE ON A PLAN OR
PROPOSED REDUCTIONS TO AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS, WHICH MEANS THERE
WILL BE NO CHANGE AND AGRICULTURAL LEASES WILL GET 45,000 ACRE-FEET
FOR IRRIGATION. POTENTIAL AGRICULTURAL LOSERS COULD BE THOSE LEASES
DEPENDENT ON SURFACE WATER.

ON FEBRUARY 25, 2016, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SECRETARIAL DROUGHT
DESIGNATIONS WERE ANNOUNCED. THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
DESIGNATED ALL COUNTIES IN THE LAS VEGAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COUNTY WARNING AREA.

ON DECEMBER 23, 2015, INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES IN CALIFORNIA
WERE DECLARED AS PRIMARY NATURAL DISASTER AREAS DUE TO THE ONGOING
DROUGHT. ALL FARM AND RANCH OPERATORS IN THOSE COUNTIES ARE ELIGIBLE
FOR LOW INTEREST EMERGENCY LOANS FROM THE USDA FARM SERVICE AGENCY,
PROVIDED ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS ARE MET.

WATER SUPPLY

THE CURRENT LAKE MEAD WATER ELEVATION HAS RISEN SLIGHTLY FROM ITS
RECORD LOW LEVELS EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THE CURRENT LEVEL IS NEAR
1078 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL, AROUND SEVEN FEET HIGHER THAN OBSERVED IN
LATE JUNE. THE LAKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE TO AROUND 1080
FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL BY THE END OF THE YEAR.

THE LATEST U.S. BUREAU OF RECLAMATION GIVES LAKE MEAD 0 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FALLING INTO SHORTAGE - 1ST LEVEL NEXT YEAR (MEAD
ELEVATION 1075-1050 FEET), BUT THAT CHANCE RISES TO 48 PERCENT IN
2018 AND 60 PERCENT IN 2019. THE U.S. BUREAU OF RECLAMATION DECLARES
A SHORTAGE WHENEVER AN ANNUAL STUDY PROJECTS THE RESERVOIR LEVEL
WILL BE LESS THAN 1075 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL ON JANUARY 1. A SHORTAGE
COULD FORCE ARIZONA, NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA TO IMPLEMENT WATER
RESTRICTIONS, AND SOME ARIZONA FARMERS WOULD LOSE THE WATER THAT
FLOWS TO THEM THROUGH THE CENTRAL ARIZONA PROJECT CANAL. THERE IS
LESS THAN A 15 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SURPLUS (OF ANY AMOUNT ABOVE
1145 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL) WILL OCCUR WITH LAKE MEAD`S WATER SUPPLY
THROUGH 2021.

THE NEVADA DROUGHT FORUM, A STATEWIDE PANEL, HAS RECOMMENDED
STATEWIDE WATER METERING, WATER EFFICIENCY STANDARDS FOR NEW
DEVELOPMENT AND ADOPTING TIER RATE STRUCTURES TO PROMOTE
CONSERVATION. THE STATE`S BIGGEST WATER USER, AGRICULTURE, WOULD BE
ENCOURAGED TO USE DRIP IRRIGATION, CROP COVERING AND CONVERT
PLANTINGS TO LESS THIRSTY VARIETIES. THE REPORT ALSO ASKS LOCAL
GOVERNMENTS TO ADDRESS THE ISSUE OF THIRSTY LANDSCAPING REQUIREMENTS
SET BY MANY HOMEOWNERS ASSOCIATIONS. THE SOUTHERN NEVADA WATER
AUTHORITY`S CASH FOR GRASS PROGRAM HAS BEEN VERY SUCCESSFUL AND HAS
REPLACED MORE THAN 173 MILLION SQUARE FEET OF TURF GRASS (MORE THAN
3,000 FOOTBALL FIELDS) WITH LANDSCAPING THAT`S A BETTER FIT FOR
NEVADA`S CLIMATE.

SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY UPDATED THEIR WATERING SCHEDULE AND ORDINANCE
RESTRICTIONS IN AUGUST 2016 AS A RESULT OF THE STATE WATER RESOURCES
CONTROL BOARD`S NEW EMERGENCY WATER CONSERVATION REGULATIONS. THE
COUNTY FOUND THAT THERE IS SUFFICIENT WATER SUPPLY TO MEET DEMAND
OVER THE NEXT THREE YEARS...HOWEVER...IT STRONGLY STRESSED WATER
CONSERVATION EFFORTS SHOULD CONTINUE. THE SCHEDULE AND RESTRICTIONS
INCLUDE FOUR-DAY-PER-WEEK OUTDOOR IRRIGATION ALLOWANCES AND WATERING
HOUR REGULATIONS.

GROUND WATER

THE ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES (ADWR) APPROVED A REQUEST
BY THE MOHAVE COUNTY BOARD OF SUPERVISORS TO HAVE THE NORTHWEST
BASIN PLANNING AREA (A REGION ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF MOHAVE COUNTY IN
ARIZONA`S STRATEGIC VISION FOR WATER SUPPLY) LISTED AS A TOP
PRIORITY, AS THE REGION CONTAINS SOME OF THE LARGEST GROUNDWATER
SUPPLIES IN THE STATE. THE ADWR HELD A MEETING WITH LOCAL
STAKEHOLDERS IN THE SUMMER TO DISCUSS THE CURRENT GROUNDWATER SUPPLY
AND METHODS TO MEET FUTURE WATER DEMANDS. TWO MAIN CONCERNS HELD BY
THE ADWR ARE THE LARGE INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE FARMING IN THE REGION
AND THE STATE`S LACK OF REGULATORY POWER REGARDING MOHAVE COUNTY`S
WATER SUPPLY.

THE LOS ANGELES DEPARTMENT OF WATER AND POWER IS PLANNING FOUR NEW
PRODUCTION WELLS IN INYO COUNTY. ONE WILL REPLACE A WELL IN LAWS,
TWO IN BISHOP AND ONE IN BELL CANYON WEST OF BIG PINE.

THE NEVADA LEGISLATIVE COMMISSION`S SUBCOMMITTEE TO STUDY WATER HAS
DRAFTED A SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS, WHICH ARE NOW FORWARDED TO THE
LEGISLATIVE COMMISSION FOR TRANSMITTAL TO THE NEVADA LEGISLATURE IN
2017. SOME OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS INCLUDE THE DRAFTING OF A BILL
REQUIRING CLAIMANTS OF PRE-STATUTORY WATER RIGHTS TO SUBMIT PROOF OF
THE CLAIM AND THE DRAFTING OF A BILL LIMITING WITHDRAWALS FROM NEW
DOMESTIC WELLS TO 0.5 ACRE-FEET ANNUALLY IN SEVERELY OVER-
APPROPRIATED BASINS AND DESIGNATED CRITICAL MANAGEMENT AREAS.

INYO COUNTY SUPERVISORS PASSED A THREE-PAGE DROUGHT PROCLAMATION FOR
INYO COUNTY. THEY NOTED THE SERIOUSNESS OF THE SITUATION BY
POINTING OUT THE VERY LOW SNOWPACK IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA, DRY WELLS
AROUND BISHOP AND CONCERNS ABOUT USE OF WATER ON THE DRY LAKE AND
THE NEED FOR LOS ANGELES DEPARTMENT OF WATER AND POWER AND INYO
COUNTY TO PLAN FOR DRY TIMES.

RECREATION/TOURISM

THE LOW LAKE LEVELS IN LAKE MEAD CONTINUE TO IMPACT RECREATIONAL
BOATING CHANNELS BY REDUCING AREAS THAT BOATS CAN PASS THROUGH. THE
FALLING LAKE LEVEL HAS RESULTED IN THE CONTINUED CLOSURE OF THE ECHO
BAY MARINA AND BOAT LAUNCH RAMP AT ECHO BAY.

NATURAL SPRINGS IN THE SHEEP MOUNTAIN RANGE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA HAVE
RUN DRY IN SOME INSTANCES FORCING HIKERS TO HAVE TO BRING WATER WITH
THEM.

FIRE WEATHER

THE LATEST SIGNIFICANT WILDLAND FIRE POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER
THROUGH FEBRUARY CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL POTENTIAL IN SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.

ACCORDING TO CAL FIRE, THE NUMBER OF FIRES THIS YEAR IN THE STATE OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH NOVEMBER 12, 2016, IS 5636 (ABOVE THE 4544
AVERAGE IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS) COVERING 147,327 ACRES (BELOW THE
163,924 ACRE AVERAGE IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS).

AERIAL SURVEYS IN THE PAST YEAR CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH MORTALITY
RATES WITH TREES IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA OWING TO THE COMBINATION OF
DROUGHT AND A BARK BEETLE EPIDEMIC. SOME AREAS OF THE SIERRA TO THE
WEST OF INYO COUNTY WERE REPORTED TO HAVE MORE THAN 35 DEAD TREES
PER ACRE WITH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FEATURING AT
LEAST TEN DEAD TREES PER ACRE IN MAY 2016.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

DATA BELOW IS OCTOBER 1 2016 THROUGH NOVEMBER 17 2016

 ARIZONA            PCPN     NORMAL     PER

BEAVER DAM          0.72      1.05       69%
PIPE SPRING NM      0.33      1.57       21%
KINGMAN             0.50      1.08       46%
WIKIEUP             0.05      1.14        4%

 CALIFORNIA

BISHOP              0.09      0.58       16%
DEATH VALLEY NP     0.04      0.17       24%
BARSTOW-DAGGETT     0.49      0.34      144%
NEEDLES                T      0.47        0%
JOSHUA TREE         0.33      0.58       57%

 NEVADA

LAS VEGAS           0.23      0.47       49%
MT CHARLESTON       2.91      2.61      111%
PAHRUMP             1.13      0.45      251%
MESQUITE            0.00      0.98        0%
CALIENTE            0.90      1.27       71%
DYER                0.20      0.60       33%

 PCPN   - 2016 WATER YEAR PRECIPITATION
 NORMAL - WATER YEAR NORMAL (STARTS OCT 1)
 PER    - PERCENT OF NORMAL

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE LATEST SEASONAL FORECAST (NOVEMBER 2016 THROUGH JANUARY 2017)
ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SHOWS THERE ARE EQUAL
CHANCES OF BELOW, NEAR, OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MOJAVE DESERT. THERE IS ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS THREE-MONTH PERIOD ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

TOTAL INFLOWS INTO LAKE POWELL DURING THE APRIL-JULY PERIOD WERE
AROUND 6.6 MAF OR 92% OF AVERAGE. DURING THE RUNOFF SEASON, LAKE
POWELL OBSERVED A RISE IN WATER ELEVATION OF AROUND 30 FEET.

AS OF NOVEMBER 14, 2016, LAKE MEAD`S ELEVATION WAS 1078.50 FEET OR
38 PERCENT CAPACITY. LAKE MEAD HAS NOT SEEN LAKE ELEVATIONS THIS LOW
SINCE THE RESERVOIR WAS BEING FILLED IN 1937. THE OUTLOOK IS FOR THE
WATER ELEVATION TO SLOWLY RISE TO 1080 FEET BY JANUARY 2017.

LAKE POWELL`S CURRENT ELEVATION IS 3606.53 OR 51 PERCENT CAPACITY.

DATA FOR RESERVOIRS ACROSS THE REGION (AS OF 11/14/2016)

RESERVOIR                   PERCENT FULL

LAKE MEAD                        38
LAKE MOHAVE                      82
LAKE HAVASU                      89

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENTS ARE NORMALLY
ISSUED ON THE THIRD THURSDAY OF EACH MONTH IN WHICH EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS EXIST IN ANY PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
MOJAVE DESERT. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE IS THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15,
2016. IF A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE DROUGHT CONDITION IS
ANTICIPATED...OR OCCURS PRIOR TO THIS DATE...AN UPDATED STATEMENT
WILL BE ISSUED.
&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING WEB SITES:

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM
WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE     WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS
USGS                         WATER.USGS.GOV/
COLORADO BASIN RFC           WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV
CALIFORNIA-NEVADA RFC        WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV

ADDITIONAL SITES:

NEVADA DIVISION OF WATER RESOURCES   WATER.NV.GOV
CALIFORNIA DEPT OF WATER RESOURCES   WWW.WATER.CA.GOV
ARIZONA DEPT OF WATER RESOURCES      WWW.AZWATER.GOV

NEVADA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE          WWW.CLIMATE.UNR.EDU
CALIFORNIA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE      WWW.CLIMATE.WATER.CA.GOV
ARIZONA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE         AZCLIMATE.ASU.EDU
WESTERN REGION CLIMATE CENTER        WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU

NWS FORECAST OFFICE LAS VEGAS        WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL AND WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATIC
DATA CENTERS...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS
AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - LAS VEGAS
PHONE...702-263-9744
W-VEF.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

CMS/BP



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