Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 220626
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
226 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region will bring warm and
dry conditions through Sunday. A cold front will approach from
the west on Monday...then slowly push through the local area on
Tuesday. High pressure builds across the Gulf of Mexico
Wednesday and Thursday...as low pressure lingers from the Great
Lakes to New England.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Near 1028 mb sfc hi pres centered invof srn NJ attm w/ upper
level ridge axis aligned N-S invof ern seaboard. A fair amount
of CI now streaming into the region from the WSW...and
conditions overall are mild and near calm. Will once again have
patchy FG early this morning...coverage may end up a little more
than the past couple of mornings. After that...another
dry/seasonably warm day. Issue of partly sunny vs mostly sunny
dependent on coverage of clouds (mainly CI)...w/ highs in the
m-u70s...l70s at the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight with lows mainly in the
50s. During Mon...low pres deepens over the deep South/lower MS
Valley while a strong upper ridge remains in place just off the
East Coast. Still warm/mainly dry through Mon...increasing PoPs
limited to (well) W of I 95 toward evening. Highs in the u70s
E to the l-m70s W (where clouds begin to thicken in the
afternoon).

Latest 00Z/22 GFS/NAM/ECMWF have trended a bit slower w/ the
overall timing of the next cold front...now depicting the best
lift/forcing for likely to categorical PoPs (60-80%) from about
09Z/Tue through 19Z/Tue. Strong low level jet and sfc dew pts in
the 60s...won`t rule out ISOLD tstms late Mon night/Tue
morning...mainly for SE VA/NE NC. Partial clearing expected Tue
by late morning W and by late aftn E...and have continued w/
lowering PoP trend W-E. Still mild through Tue w/ lows Mon night
in the 60s...then highs Tues in the 70s as cold air lags well
behind off to the NW of the local area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold front reaches the coast early Tue night and is expected
to exit the coast by daybreak Wed morning. Any RA tapers
off/ends near the coast early Tue evening. Temperatures falling
from the 60s in the evening to 45-50F inland and 50-55F closer
to the coast by Wed morning. Dewpoints also fall from the lower
50s NW to lower 60s SE in the evening to 40-45F inland and 45F
to around 50F by morning. Conditions generally dry thereafter
(Wed- Sat) as sfc high pressure builds back into the region Wed
night through Thu night. Sfc high slides off the Mid Atlantic
Coast Fri and then up off the New England Coast Fri night.

Temperatures at to slightly below normal for Wed/Wed night
with highs in the 60s areawide and lows in the 40s. Temps slow
to rebound on Thu as upper trough swings through and more
stable NW flow aloft develops over the area. Highs 60-64F. High
pressure slides overhead Thu night and then temperatures slowly
moderate. Lows Thu night in the 40s (around 50F beaches).
Seasonal normal highs Fri in the upper 60s to around 70F. Lows
Fri night in the upper 40s inland to 50-56F immediate coast.
Highs Sat in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sfc hi pres is situated immediately off the Mid-Atlantic coast
attm. Winds remain light/VRB while BKN-OVC CI spreads over the
region from the WSw. Another round of fog is expected into early
this morning...w/ a potential for IFR/LIFR conditions...mainly
at SBY/PHF/ECG. Otherwise...VFR conditions through the 06Z TAF
forecast period...though w/ continue BKN- OVC CI...and a light
SE wind of 4-8kt as hi pres remains off the Mid- Atlantic coast.
A cold front is forecast to track through the region Mon night
through Tue morning. This will bring the potential for MVFR/IFR
conditions in rain and low CIGs. Mainly VFR Tue aftn/eve through
Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines in the short term tonight thru Mon. A large area
of high pressure was cntrd right over the Mid Atlantic region
late this aftn. Winds were generally E 5 to 10 kt with Waves
1 foot and Seas 2 to 3 feet.

The next chance for significant weather over the waters will
come later Mon thru Tue, as a strong cold front approaches fm
the west and slowly crosses the waters. The pressure gradient
will lead to increasing southerly flow ahead of the front later
Mon thru Tue, shifting to the WNW behind the front later Tue
night thru Wed. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed
for most or all of the area Mon night/Tue, as the pressure
gradient should be strong enough for winds of 15-25 kt with
higher gusts. Coastal seas will build to 5-9 ft with waves of
3-4 ft in the Bay likely. A fair amount of uncertainty remains
Tue night/Wed regarding how strong the pressure gradient will be
as the models tend to keep the cold air and strong winds off to
our NW over the Great Lakes until Thu.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...TMG



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