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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 250504
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
104 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front is moving through early this afternoon
which will cause falling temperatures. Skies clear this
evening, leading to a cold night with lows falling into the 20s
for much of the area. High pressure will be in control with dry
weather Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 am update...

Lingering clouds have allowed us to cool down a bit slower than
previously forecasted. Satellite imagery shows clouds
dissipating soon allowing for the forecast to get back on
track. Therefore updated near term temperatures with current
observations to reflect this. Also updated sky cover to show the
transition, no other changes needed at this time.

615 pm update...

Forecast remains mostly on-track this evening and made only some
minor tweaks to cloud cover based on latest METSAT and
observations. Cold front has pushed through the region with high
pressure building in behind. Skies will clear over the next few
hours and the clear skies overnight and light winds will send
temperatures into the low to mid 20s by early Thursday morning.

1230 pm update...

A cold front is moving southeast through the Catskills and NEPA
now. Some rain showers are with and behind it. So far no thunder
and lightning has been observed. Instability and shear is weak.
Lapse rates are good with surface temperatures around 60. Still
a chance of a thunderstorm in the next 3 hours along the front.

Clear skies and dry air just north of Lake Ontario will move in
late today and this evening to clear our area and push showers
south. Rainfall amounts will be light and have no affect on
streams and rivers.

This cool dry air is ahead of a large area of high pressure
that will be centered over CNY/NEPA Thursday night. Skies will
be clear late tonight into Friday. Temperatures will fall into
the 20s tonight as winds become calm late. High temperatures
will be below average from the upper 40s to the 50s. Thursday
night will again be below freezing with lows from the mid 20s to
around 30. Again winds will be light or calm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update

After a cold start early Friday morning, temperatures look to rise
into the upper 50s to mid-60s by afternoon. This is right on target
for late April. Expect mainly sunny skies, with perhaps just a few
stray clouds and light southerly winds for Friday. The area will
remain firmly under the influence of a 1030mb surface high centered
over New England through the day time hours. By Friday night it
remains dry, with gradually increasing high clouds. Southerly winds
will be 5 to 15 mph and this may help to keep overnight lows
slightly milder, very close to average in the mid-30s to low 40s.

By Saturday, a warm frontal system pushed into the region in the
afternoon. There remain model differences on just how much moisture
and rainfall this system could produce for our forecast area. The
front will be running into mid and upper level ridging, along with
some pretty dry air in the mid-levels. Clouds should increase and
there will be at least some scattered rain showers around during the
afternoon hours; rainfall amounts should be light generally one to
two tenths of an inch or less. There is no instability present on
Saturday, so thunderstorms are not expected. South winds continue to
increase between 10-20 mph, with some higher gusts by
afternoon/evening. With the clouds and showers around, temperatures
look to stay cooler/below average with highs in the 50s to low 60s.

Showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm continue Saturday night as
some elevated instability works in from the west. Look for steady
temperatures between 45-55 much of the night. The southerly winds
begin to decrease overnight, falling back to 8 to 15 mph after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM Update

This period starts off with yet another warm front pushing through
the area on Sunday. This front will come through as upper level
heights continue to rise over the area. At this time, model guidance
is limiting the surface based instability to generally the Finger
Lakes and Central Southern Tier of NY regions. As the front lifts
north there will still be a chance for scattered showers around,
with a few thunderstorms also possible along/west of I-81 in NY and
northern tier of PA. Winds turn southwesterly after the frontal
passage and dew points rise into the mid-50s to low 60s. Afternoon
highs look to reach well into the 70s areawide.

Upper level ridge and deep southwesterly flow continue over the area
for Monday. Overall it looks partly sunny and mainly dry, with
temperatures surging 15-20 degrees above average levels; these
readings will be close to record highs for the date. There will
certainly be some instability around, but it could be mostly capped
by the upper level ridge overhead. With dew points in the lower 60s
did leave in a mention for a chance of rain showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. Overall, it seems the next cold front is
slowing down slightly in the latest model guidance. This could open
the door for warmer temperatures on Tuesday, but also thunderstorms.
Stuck close to the NBM data for the official forecast (but limited
PoPs to likely category)...with high temperatures now progged to be
well into the 70s once again. Will have to watch the timing of this
front closely; if it holds off until afternoon that would allow for
higher levels of instability to build along with deep layer shear of
25-40 kts possible. After this it looks to cool down midweek, closer
to average with partly sunny skies and a chance for a few rain
showers. Winds turn west-northwest 10-20 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in control for this period with VFR
conditions expected at all terminals. Northerly winds will
continue to decrease overnight and winds Thursday will likely
stay below 10 kts at all sites.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Monday...Restrictions possible in rain
showers, especially in the afternoon and evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/TAC
NEAR TERM...ES/MPK/TAC
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...ES