Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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308 FXUS63 KBIS 100910 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 410 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and mild conditions expected today. Breezy northwest winds could gust to around 35 MPH today, mainly in the south, central, and east. - Warm temperatures continue through the weekend. Dry conditions expected for Saturday, with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible on Sunday. Breezy west winds could continue for Saturday. - Near to slightly above normal temperatures expected next week, as well as near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Clipper system looks to push across eastern portions of the state today, and bring a weak and mainly dry frontal passage. The main result of this will be some breezy northwest winds to much of southern, central, and eastern portions. The strongest winds aloft look to pass through during the morning hours, while pressure falls are generally found this afternoon. Thus stronger winds are not expected today, although gusts of 35 to perhaps 40 MPH are possible. Influence from the ridge to our east and poor jet dynamics aloft should maintain a mainly dry forecast today as well as generally clear to partly cloudy skies. This ridge may also be enough to maintain mild temperatures today, with little cooling expected from the mentioned frontal passage. With warm temperatures in the 70s, RH dropping into the 20s, and breezy conditions some increased fire weather concerns are possible today. Fuels still look green, and rate of spread looks on the modest side. Thus the overall fire weather threat should remain limited for today. An interesting note for tonight...the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has issued a rare G4 Geomagnetic Storm Watch due to an active sun ejecting multiple Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) towards earth. This goes into effect tonight into Saturday. Timing will be key if northern lights are viewable during this event. However the forecast for tonight is mainly clear with diminishing winds and low temperatures in the 40s. This combined with a favorable moon phase will make ideal conditions for any sky gazers looking to catch a glimpse of northern lights. Those looking to do so should check the latest space weather conditions on the SWPC`s website, and weather.gov for the latest weather conditions. A surface low then looks to move across southern Canada on Saturday. This puts ND in the warm sector with perhaps some breezy westerly winds. Temperatures could warm to near 80 degrees for some areas. As the day and evening progresses a weak front could enter into the north. This could bring an isolated shower or thunderstorm, although dry air in place will make it difficult for precipitation to reach the ground. Thus limited PoPs on Saturday to less than 15 percent. There could be some more fire weather concerns on Saturday, although the green fuels will once again limit the overall fire weather threat. The weak front fully moves through Sunday with a return to northwest flow. Winds will diminish and become northerly, and temperatures will slightly cool yet remain mild. The northwest flow could open the door for a weak disturbance to move through during the afternoon and nighttime hours. Thus slight chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible Sunday through Sunday night. Clusters for next week still showing either a zonal flow or a northern trough flow aloft. The end result is near to perhaps slightly above normal temperatures, yet near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Deterministic models showing a surface low followed by this northern trough moving through earlier in the week. Depending how this setup perhaps more increased chances for precipitation are warranted, with even an isolated stronger storm possible as indicated by the CSU-MLP. Perhaps mid week a break in precipitation will be found before the next trough pattern sets up, although the different timing scenarios of this keeps near daily PoP chances in the forecast. Temperature spreads still remain large in this pattern, although still favor near to perhaps slightly above normal. This keeps highs in the 60s to perhaps lower 70s, and lows generally above freezing and in the 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Some sites may see a SCT to BKN layer of clouds tonight, mainly at VFR levels. A steady northwest wind could also be found tonight. Mainly clear skies and breezy to windy northwest winds are then expected for Friday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Anglin AVIATION...Anglin