Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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000 FXUS61 KCLE 221152 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 652 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION TODAY AS IT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THAT TIME. A NOTICEABLY COLDER AIRMASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION TODAY. SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWING QUITE A CONTRAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN 2/3 OF FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED TO GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS IN WEST WITH TEMPS DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WHILE LOWER 40S HANGING ON IN EAST. GIVEN CURRENT OBS MOST LOCATIONS HAVING VISIBILITIES RANGING BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES. MENTIONED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN FORECAST THIS MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY SINCE QUARTER MILE OR LESS CONDITIONS ARE NOT PREDOMINATE. EASTERLY FLOW SLOWLY DRIFTING CLOUDS EASTWARD THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL TREND FOR TODAY WILL SHOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING THROUGH THE MORNING BUT FOR FAR EASTERN SPOTS SUCH AS IN NW PA CAN SEE CLOUDS HOLDING ON THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUNNY BREAKS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TEMPS WILL CLIMB QUICKLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST WITH SUNNY SKIES. MEANWHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE...BUT THEY ARE ALSO STARTING OFF MUCH WARMER. BASICALLY BY END OF THE AFTERNOON MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP IN MID 50S GENERALLY. WENT LOWER 50S FOR NW PA WITH THE SLOWER CLEARING AND UPPER 50S FAR WEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MET AND MAV GUIDANCE. BOTH GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF WEAK INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA BUT THINKING ANY INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT ANY RADIATING LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SEEM REASONABLE. CLOUDS ADVANCING THROUGH AREA ON MONDAY BUT WENT A BIT SLOWER IN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE TO NORTHEAST WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP MID LEVELS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY SO HELD BACK POPS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY INCREASING COME MONDAY NIGHT SO RAMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR THEN. FOR NOW STILL WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE WITH CONCERNS ABOUT PRECIP COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AREAS. TEMPS WARMER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT. KEPT POPS LOW ON TUESDAY AS IT APPEARS TO BE THE DAY WITH A BREAK IN BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. DID NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATE POPS WITH WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW. MOS GUIDANCE SIMILAR WITH POPS THEN JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SLGT CHC. GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE WITH SOLUTION OF BRINGING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TO HIGH CHC. ECMWF NOT QUITE AS ROBUST ON BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BIT MORE SIMILARITY BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS WHICH ARE ADVERTISED BY GFS. THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE THE TRANSITIONAL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR THE REGION. TRANSITIONED TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND THEN TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR BECOMING EVEN MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. LEANED ON COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TEMPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE BIG TROUGH PROGGED TO ROLL ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST AS IT CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW. THE ECMWF TAKES WELL INTO THE WEEKEND TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST. GFS CUTS OFF THE SYSTEM BUT KEEPS IT MOVING. GEM IS FARTHER NORTH AND FASTER BUT SEEMS TO BE MISSING THE STRONG JET THAT THE OTHER MODELS PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH. A COMPROMISE IN SPEED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH WOULD SEEM CLIMATOLOGICALLY REASONABLE. THIS WILL PUT THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW VEERS MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND PROBABLY PERSIST INTO THE DAY SATURDAY ALTHOUGH ALL THE MODELS SHOW WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AIR MASS IS NOT PROGGED TO BE UNUSUALLY COLD BUT WITH ENOUGH DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THERE COULD BE SOME DECENT SHOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NOT A CLASSIC SET UP FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WOULD EXPECT THE AIRMASS TO DRY OUT BY SATURDAY. FORECAST TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DEW DEGREES BELOW MAX TEMP GUIDANCE ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AS CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR/IFR FOG IS WIDESPREAD BUT DENSE IN LIMITED AREAS... MAINLY WEST OF I-77. THE FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING. MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOMINATE EAST OF I-77 AND ACROSS WESTERN PA. FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE EAST SO THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK MAY DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND WILL LIKELY BRUSH KCLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL LINGER AT KYNG AND KERI INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE BEFORE THEY CAN GET TO OTHER TAF SITES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. INCREASED EAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE FOG TO A MINIMUM SUNDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK...MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .MARINE... THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OFF TO THE EAST AND THE FLOW WILL VEER MORE FROM THE EAST BUT THE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH THAT THE WIND/WAVES WILL NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY. SOUTH FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BY MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SOME TIME WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOON AFTER AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WINDS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE BY LATE IN THE WEEK. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ABE NEAR TERM...ABE SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...KOSARIK
