000
FXUS63 KDLH 191748
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1248 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers today (20-40%) Coverage will increase in the
  afternoon. The primary impacts will be occasional heavy bursts
  of snow with gusty winds reducing visibilities to less then a
  half a mile at times. Accumulations will remain less then an
  inch

- Elevated fire weather concerns for the weekend due to low RHs
  and gusty winds

- Next weather system will enter from the west early next week.
  Current guidance suggests rain will be the primary
  precipitation type with some snow mixing in during the
  overnight and morning hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Current conditions/Today:

An upper level low was moving into central Ontario this morning.
Satellite and radar showcase a stratus deck engulfing the region
with some light snow and flurries being reported at times. Cloud
cover is expected to persist through the day. While we don`t have a
good gulf connection the aforementioned low is still carrying a fair
amount of wrap around moisture highlighted well in the advected
precipitable water. Cold air aloft (850mb temps of -8C to -10C)
mixed with the broad scale forcing from vorticity in the area will
promote additional snow showers today. This shower activity will
increase as we head into the afternoon hours as low level lapse
rates steepen to 8C/km. CAMs support the scattered and convective
nature of these showers. The primary impacts will be occasional
heavy bursts of snow with gusty winds reducing visibilities to less
then a half a mile at times. Accumulations will still be limited as
we have a higher sun angle in time of year with temperatures
climbing into 40s this afternoon. Expect accumulations to remain
less then an inch.

Weekend:

The weekend will be quiet and dry as surface high pressure builds
over the Great Plains. We will still endure some breezy conditions
but mostly sunny to clear skies will see temperatures rebound into
the 50s by Sunday. There will be some elevated concerns for fire
weather due to dry conditions and gusty winds. Based on the latest
forecast package the area of most concern would be the Arrowhead on
Sunday. A Fire Weather Watch may be issued in later shifts.

Early Next Week:

Another weather system is projected to sink southeast out of
Saskatchewan early next week. Details with system still remain in
flux as both the GEFS and Euro ensembles show a decent amount of
spread and timing with the forecasted low positions. The GEFS are a
little faster and take a more northerly track when compared to the
Euro. With cooler air still in place precipitation type will be
largely dependent on the low track. If the low manages to track
farther south it will draw in cooler air from the north allowing for
increased snow chances. For now, the mean low position favors a
mostly rain brew with some rain/snow mix in the overnight and early
morning timeframes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Scattered showers of snow or mixed snow/graupel/rain will
increase in coverage this afternoon. Visibilities are expected
to be up and down this afternoon between VFR and MVFR, and IFR
can`t be ruled out a time or two if a heavier shower happens to
track over a terminal briefly with visibilities as low as 1/2 to
1/4SM. Predictability is expected to be quite low for timing,
but this was generally handled with tempos when the showers are
expected to be the heaviest and most widespread from 20Z and
00Z. Coverage of showers is expected to gradually diminish
around and after sunset.

Otherwise, expect MVFR to VFR ceilings with some terminals
seeing lowering ceilings tonight, then improving Saturday
morning. Breezy northwest winds will prevail through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1002 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Updated to add Chequamegon Bay to a Small Craft Advisory through
tonight. Expect to see some gusts to 25 knots at times. The only
other feature to mention is that wind gusts have been trending a
bit downward for the Saturday evening into Sunday period, so
there is some possibility that Small Craft Advisories may be
allowed to end early for some places, but we will continue to
monitor the forecast before making any changes to current
headlines.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ121.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Sunday for LSZ140>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS