Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 241204
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
604 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

After some collaboration with WFO DDC and recent trends, I
updated to lower maxes along our common border.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 406 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Main forecast issues will be ongoing precipitation event and how
cool to make temperatures, especially the low temperatures.
Satellite showing an amplified and slow moving pattern from the
Pacific into the western Atlantic. Analysis and satellite showing
deep moisture over the area and continuing to stream in from the
south. Slow moving upper low is currently along the Utah and Arizona
border. Hard to tell for sure with the rainfall/storms going on but
initial front looks draped over the southeast fringe the area with a
secondary surge of cooler air to our north.

At jet level...models were not doing well on the jet segment on the
front side of the western trough. They tended to not have it far
enough west. The Nam and Canadian were doing the best with this. At
mid levels...models were fairly close. Overall the Ukmet, Nam,
Canadian, and Ecmwf were doing the best.

Today/tonight...For hydro concerns through tomorrow night, refer to
the hydro section below. Right rear quadrant starts over the western
half of the area this morning and then moves little through the
middle of the day with it affecting the northwest half of the area.
The jet develops or moves back to the west in the afternoon. Also
mid level lift decreases some by late morning. So by late this
morning to early this afternoon there will be a brief lull in
precipitation/heavier precipitation until the next significant batch
comes in.

And as the models have shown the previous two nights, a right rear
quadrant or coupled jet structure affects the area through the
night. The mid level lift along with the upper level lift
increases through the night. So expect a gradual increase in pops
through the night. The precipitable water values start decreasing
through this period but will still be above normal through this
time, especially in the eastern half. That is where the moderate
to heavy rainfall will be confined.

Considering the ongoing clouds and rainfall along with a secondary
cool surge, lowered maxes for the day close to the best performing
guidance.

Monday/Monday night...A right rear quadrant or coupled jet setup
continues to affect the area through the day as it moves slowly
toward the east. Also the mid level lift remains strong through at
least the middle of the day with some continued but slight drying of
the air mass. Felt that the blend pops I was given for the
morning were too low considering the amount of mid and upper level
present. So raised them a little. What is a little disturbing is
most numerical guidance is much higher than the blend and am
concerned that it may be ending the higher pops too early. At this
time am only anticipating light to occasional moderate rain.

During the evening the right rear quadrant moves little with it
affecting the entire area. During the overnight hours a rather
strong southern jet develops and puts the area in good lift from a
coupled jet. Air mass dries out more so model/wpc qpf is less. But
considering the lift the pops may need to be raised a little. Very
cool conditions remain for high temperatures.

Tuesday/Tuesday night...Upper jet moves little during the day with
either a coupled jet setup or right rear quadrant remaining over the
southeast portion of the area. In fact a model or two even pulls the
jet back a little further to the west. Upper jet continues to not
move or move little during the night and remains over or just
southeast of the area.

There looks to be some lingering rainfall, according to the
blend, in the far south in the morning. At the very least the
above mentioned lift may keep clouds around with the worst case
scenario of lingering light rainfall over more of the area. Since
there appears we may some sun, temperatures should be a little
warmer.

Of minor concern is the low temperatures for this night. Winds
become light. However models do keep some mid and high level cloud
cover around per the jet being in the area. The moist levels and
this cloud cover should keep the temperatures from dropping too
much. However, if there is less cloud cover, there is potential
that some locations could get into the upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 231 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Strong model disagreement for this period. Most global models depict
an upper low and trough near the Four Corners region on Wednesday.
The latest ECMWF run has the low meandering over the Four Corners
region through the period, leaving the CWA in zonal/NW flow aloft
and dry conditions. The latest GFS is much more progressive taking
the upper low into Wyoming. With copious amounts of moisture at
700mb and decent lift, GFS shows precip and QPF Wednesday night
through Friday morning. Due to this, there is lower confidence in
the forecast for this period. As for temperatures, expect to see
values below to near normal for the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 521 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

For KMCK and KGLD... Rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms
will continue throughout the region for today and tonight.
Expecting varying times of IFR and LIFR throughout the period.
Models are hinting at possible VLIFR tomorrow morning with FG but
chose to omit since it was at the end of the period and
confidence was low that this would occur with ongoing showers.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 406 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

In regards for the hydro concerns. Some rather high rainfall amounts
have occurred as seen through surface observations and MRMS
estimates. However, due to the previous dry conditions and the rain
coming at a reasonable rate as not to cause excessive runoff, no
reports of flooding have been received. Also river gages have shown
no rapid rise and remain well below flood stage at this time.
Imagine the main problem will be some minor flooding and ponding.
So do not anticipate issuing a flash flood watch at this time.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...SME
HYDROLOGY...BULLER



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