Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 250020
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
520 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

A cold front is currently moving across the area early this
afternoon with north winds gusting 30 to 40 mph. Winds will
quickly subside to around 10 mph by sunset then remain northerly
through early Saturday morning before backing to the west or
becoming light and variable. A weather disturbance is moving onto
the Colorado front range from Wyoming at present time and is
forecast to slide southeast across the western/southwestern 1/3 or
so of the area this evening. Have added some sprinkles and light
rain showers to the forecast for this area. Wouldnt be surprised
to see a lightning strike or two as their is some elevated
instability with limited inhibition. Low temperatures should drop
into the upper 20s to low 30s.

For Saturday dry with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds
become southwest at 5 to perhaps 15 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 155 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

For this long-term forecast cycle, anticipate quiet weather to
prevail for the most part. However, there are a couple periods to
monitor.

Beginning with Sunday and Monday, the well-above normal temperatures
look to return once again. For Sunday, high temperatures should
climb into the low to mid 70s. Goodland, KS and Yuma, Colorado may
see records but the other sites would require temperatures to climb
into the upper 70s. Even warmer temperatures are forecast Monday
with southwest winds bringing in warmer air. Afternoon highs in the
mid 70s to near 80 would approach or exceed record levels for all
sites.

In addition to the warm weather, attention will need to be paid to
the potential for fire weather conditions. On both Sunday and
Monday, relative humidity should drop into the 10-20% range for many
locations. Winds on Sunday appear to be pretty meager so am not
concerned about critical fire weather conditions developing. On
Monday, daytime mixing may allow some stronger gusts to reach the
surface, particularly along and west of the Colorado border. Wind
fields aloft still aren`t too impressive so a few factors would need
to align/increase for a larger fire weather threat to emerge.

A strong cold front is expected to move through Monday Night ahead
of an upper level trough. Pressure rises immediately behind the
front of 12-14 mb indicate potential for windy conditions. Am unsure
how strong wind gusts may get but wouldn`t rule out gusts as high as
45 mph. Did not go that high for this forecast but did collaborate
with neighbors and we agreed to increase winds. Wind speeds should
trend up as we approach the cold front passage.

Behind the cold front, much cooler temperatures and breezy
conditions should be observed for Tuesday. The passage of an upper
level trough should bring our next chance for precipitation in the
cooler air. Disagreement remains within model solutions so
confidence is low on precipitation chances and amounts. It does
appear as though the system will be on a weakening trend as it
passes so that lowers confidence in heavier precipitation. If
precipitation were to materialize Tuesday night, there could be a
transition to snow as the snow exits the region. Am not anticipating
much in the way of accumulation due to the light nature of the
precipitation and the warm ground temps, a direct result of our
recent well-above normal warmth.

Beyond the disturbance passing through Tuesday night, cooler weather
will prevail for Wednesday and Thursday. The pattern shifts once
again Friday and should allow for a warming trend this weekend.
Before that pattern shift, another weak disturbance may bring some
precipitation to east Colorado. However, given the layout of this
one, would anticipate most, if not all, of the precipitation to
remain confined to the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 441 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period.
Some light showers are expected in the early part of the TAF
period. There will be lower ceilings but flight categories and
visibilities will be unaffected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 205 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

Record high temperatures are possible at the following locations
November 26:

Goodland..........72 degrees in 1998 and previous years
Burlington........77 degrees in 1960
Yuma..............73 degrees in 1960

Record high temperatures are possible at the following locations
November 27:

Goodland..........75 degrees in 1949
Hill City.........76 degrees in 2009
McCook............73 degrees in 1960
Burlington........77 degrees in 1949
Colby.............78 degrees in 1904
Tribune...........78 degrees in 1995
Yuma..............74 degrees in 1998

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...EV
CLIMATE...99



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