Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 250525
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1125 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 227 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Temperatures have soared in central Kansas this afternoon, and
wind speeds have increased greater than anticipated behind the
cold front across central Kansas. The Grassland Fire Danger Index
has moved up into the extreme category for Barton, Lincoln and
Russell counties. A large fire was reported along the Ellis and
Russell county line which additionally helped prompt the issuance
of a Red Flag Warning until 6 PM this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 149 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

After record setting warmth this afternoon, temperatures will
remain unseasonably mild over the weekend as the air behind the
cold frontal passage tonight will be of modified Pacific origin.
Winds will be relatively light on Saturday as the surface high
pressure settles across the area. The upper ridge will amplify
across the western CONUS and into the Rockies by Saturday
night/Sunday with more of a westerly downslope component to the
low level flow developing on Sunday from western into central
Kansas. A significant upper trof over the eastern Pacific will
move inland along the West Coast Sunday night, where a stronger
vorticity maximum looks to move across California into southern
Nevada during Monday. The downstream upper ridge will translate
east across the Plains and central CONUS with record warmth
looking more likely again across parts of Kansas on Monday along
with stronger south winds over the area.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 149 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

The ECMWF/GFS are somewhat more similar now, though the GFS a
bit further south, in moving a rather compact/vigorous shortwave
upper trof across the central/southern Rockies during Tuesday and
into the central Plains Tuesday night. While mainly a light
precip/rain event, it could become marginally cold enough Tuesday
night for a wintry mix in central Kansas. This is in the spirit of
the going forecast. Otherwise, temperatures look to trend closer
to seasonal climo for Wednesday and Thursday. Some potential
exists for colder air to invade the Plains late next week.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Aviation concerns are expected to remain nil through the next 24
hours.

Cold front currently stretches from central MO into the TX
Panhandle. Some mid level returns are showing up on radar across
the area with only a sprinkle or two expected over the next few
hours from this VFR cloud deck. Surface high will continue to sink
south tonight into Sat and will provide light winds and clear
skies Sat. So confidence is high that VFR conditions will remain
in place through this TAF period and likely beyond.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 149 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Very high to marginally extreme grassland fire danger will exist
into early this evening behind a pre-frontal surface trof across
central Kansas.

Only moderate grassland fire danger is expected over the weekend
due to slightly cooler air and light to modest wind speeds.

Stronger south winds and unseasonably warm air will return on
Monday which will elevate the grassland fire danger across the
area. Very high fire danger is expected during Monday afternoon.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    42  62  36  66 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      40  62  36  67 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          40  61  36  66 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        42  61  36  65 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   44  62  36  65 /  10   0   0   0
Russell         37  61  36  69 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      37  61  36  69 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          39  62  37  68 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       39  61  36  67 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     44  62  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         42  61  35  64 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            41  60  35  63 /  10   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    43  60  34  64 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VJP
SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...KED


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