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857
FXUS61 KILN 131948
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
348 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A low pressure system will slowly track across the Ohio Valley
through Wednesday, brining unsettled weather to the region. Dry
weather returns Thursday with high pressure.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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For tonight, a mid level low pressure system will slowly move
from western Missouri to central Missouri. However, a mid level
disturbance will eject northeast ahead of this main low into our
region. This disturbance will be located in a regime of
increasing deeper moisture and some low level forcing associated
with a modest low level jet. This will result in numerous to
widespread shower activity as it pivots northeast through the
region. An isolated thunderstorm may occur as well. Clouds,
higher humidity, and southerly flow will keep temperatures warm
in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Lead mid level disturbance will rotate northeast out of our
area Tuesday morning. This will then be followed by the main low
pressure system as it slowly moves east into Indiana. We may
get a brief respite in pcpn chances from about mid morning into
early afternoon. Then, large scale ascent, diurnal instability,
and weak low level lift will bring high chances for showers and
thunderstorms from west to east from mid afternoon into the
evening hours. MLCAPEs will be just under 1000 J/kg, and overall
deep layer shear will be weak, so not much is expected in the
way of severe storms. However, locally gusty winds and small
hail can not be ruled out. In addition, with PWATs approaching
1.50 inches, and with the prospect of slower moving
storms/training, there will be some threat of localized
flooding. Will continue to mention that in the HWO. Highs will
be kept down due to clouds and pcpn. They will range from the
lower 70s northwest to the mid/upper 70s southeast.

For Tuesday night, the mid level low will move into the middle
Ohio Valley. Showers and storms are forecast, but storms should
dwindle in probability as the night wanes as overall instability
decreases. Again, localized heavy rain will be possible which
could lead to some flooding issues. Lows will range from the mid
50s north to the lower 60s south.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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On Wednesday morning, a slowly-moving upper low will be
centered over the Ohio Valley, moving east through the area.
This upper low will also have an associated surface low, which
will generally remain stacked with the upper low. Surface flow
will be shifting to the north behind a front, though as the low
levels are cooling, the upper levels will also have some colder
air moving into the region. That may allow for some low-end
instability, and chances for thunder will be kept in the
forecast through Wednesday evening. Overall forcing is largely
expected to be associated with any remaining vorticity rotating
around the departing upper low, but chances will gradually
diminish from northwest to southeast in a general sense.

A very narrow ridge is expected to move into the area Thursday,
bringing drier conditions to the area. However, the forecast
has trended a little less pronounced with this ridge, indicating
that clouds and even some very low end precipitation chances
may remain for Thursday. Confidence is low in the pattern for
Friday and Saturday, as there remains model disagreement in the
amplitude and timing of the next upstream trough. Friday looks
quite likely to have rain in the area, but by Saturday, there
are conflicting signals on whether or not the system will be
pulling east, or if the deep-layer moisture transport in the
area ahead of the trough will still be in place.

As the pattern changes to something pseudo-zonal, weather may
remain somewhat unsettled heading into Sunday and Monday. The
forecast will contain low-end PoPs for both days.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be the coolest of the extended
forecast period, with highs in the lower 70s. This is near
normal. For the rest of the extended, temperatures will be on
the increase, with values reaching the 80s by Sunday and Monday.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid and high level clouds will increase from the west/southwest
for the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening. Some
SCT diurnal cumulus clouds will occur as well. South winds
around 10 knots will gust up to 20 knots at times.

For tonight, a mid level low pressure system will slowly move
from western Missouri to central Missouri. However, a mid level
disturbance will eject northeast ahead of this main low into our
region. This disturbance will be located in a regime of
increasing deeper moisture and some low level forcing associated
with a modest low level jet. This will result in numerous to
widespread shower activity as it pivots northeast through the
region. An isolated thunderstorm may occur as well. Ceilings
will lower overnight as the atmosphere saturates. Eventually
MVFR and IFR ceilings will be common between 06Z and 12Z. VFR to
MVFR visibilities can be expected in showers with isolated IFR
visibilities possible in heavier showers/storms.

On Tuesday, region may get a brief respite in pcpn activity in
the wake of the disturbance during the mid morning/early
afternoon. However, showers and thunderstorms will increase once
again during the latter part of the afternoon and into the
evening as the main mid level low slowly propagates east into
the lower Ohio Valley. Large scale ascent, diurnal instability
and weak low level forcing will cause the pcpn to occur.
Although main ceilings outside of pcpn will rise to low VFR
(3500 to 4000 feet), lower conditions, MVFR and IFR, can be
expected in heavier showers and storms. Winds will back more to
the southeast as a surface low approaches the region from the
west.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities likely along
with thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday. MVFR ceilings
and visibilities possible with thunderstorms Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...Hickman