Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 232138
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
138 PM PST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...23/137 PM.

The breezy winds will end this evening. The temperatures will be
below normal into next week except on Sunday, when they may warm
to around normal in high pressure. A low should arrive with
possible precipitation from Monday to Tuesday night. Another low
may bring possible precipitation for Thursday night to Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...23/126 PM.

Trough moved through earlier this morning and now we`re firmly in
the north/northwest flow behind it. Advisory level winds have been
fairly isolated so far but should see speeds increasing as we
move into the later part of the afternoon so will leave them be
for now. Otherwise we`ll transition to a weak offshore flow
pattern over the weekend with warming temps. Still another chilly
night tonight with a series of freeze/frost hazards in effect.
Like the highs, overnight lows should warm up a couple degrees
each night through early next week. Offshore gradients peak Sunday
morning, and Sunday should be our warmest day, however without
much in the way of upper support winds should remain below
advisory levels.

Gradients turn onshore Monday ahead of the next trough dropping
south along the west coast. This will cool temps off a few
degrees, especially closer to the coast. That trough, though a
little farther west than the recent troughs, still has a
significant over land component and thus has limited moisture
available to it and really no southerly flow to help it survive
the turn around Pt Conception. So while chances for rain to the
north are reasonably high, southern areas may get shutout again or
at most get a few hundredths Monday night. And pretty cold air
with it as well so low snow levels again for the mountains and
possibly another inch or two of snow, especially north facing
slopes.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...23/134 PM.

Cool and breezy again Tuesday behind the Monday trough but dry
through at least Wednesday and likely Thursday as well. Might have
another round of frost/freeze hazards for Tuesday morning in wind
protected areas. The last few model runs of the GFS and now the
latest ECMWF have trended much weaker with the weather system for
the end of next week. Both now push the low east into Montana
rather than drop it south off the California coast as they once
did. So while there`s still a chance of rain the amounts are a
small fraction of what they were at one time. In fact some of the
ensemble members don`t have any rain over the area, though most
support at least some light rain on Friday and a few are still
even holding out for the bigger rain producer that earlier
operational runs supported. Since our Friday pops were already
pretty conservative those have been left alone and we`ll see how
this evolves over the next few days. Given the pattern this season
it`s hard not to favor the drier scenario now offered by a
majority of the solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1755Z.

At 1730Z, there was no inversion present at KLAX.

Generally hi confidence in the 18Z TAFs. VFR conditions are expected
at all the airfields through Sat morning. There will be gusty NW to
N winds at many airfields this afternoon into the evening, with a 20
percent chance of low level wind shear at times this evening at KSBA
due to gusty N canyon winds in the vicinity.

KLAX...Generally hi confidence in the 18Z TAF with VFR conditions
expected through Sat afternoon. There will also be gusty N winds
this morning to 20 knots switching to NW to W to 26 knots this
afternoon into the early evening.

KBUR...Generally hi confidence in the 18Z TAF with VFR conditions
expected through Sat morning. There will also be gusty N winds
up to 22 knots thru early this evening.

&&

.MARINE...23/1234 PM.

For the Outer Waters, generally good confidence in current
forecast. Minimal gale force winds will continue through this
evening. At least Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will
prevail Saturday afternoon through Wednesday, with a 70% chance
of Gale force winds Saturday night and again Monday night and
Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters, generally good confidence in current
forecast. For the waters north of Point Sal, there is an 80%
chance of SCA level winds each afternoon/evening through Saturday,
and again Monday through Wednesday. For the waters south of Point
Conception, SCA level winds will continue through this evening
with a 70% chance of SCA level winds Saturday afternoon/evening.
For Monday through Wednesday, there is a 70% chance of a repeat of
SCA level winds mainly in the afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones
      34-35-53-54-59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Freeze Warning in effect from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Saturday for
      zones 34-35-44-46. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Hard Freeze Warning in effect from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Saturday
      for zone 36. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for
      zones 39-52. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Frost Advisory in effect from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Saturday for
      zones 39-40-45-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zones 645-650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (MON-FRI).

Low elevation snow possible Monday night into Tuesday creating
hazardous driving conditions in the mountains, especially across
the Interstate 5 corridor.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Sirard
MARINE...Sirard
SYNOPSIS...STu

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