Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 180030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
730 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

High pressure will continue southeast of the area through
Tuesday. Low pressure will approach Tuesday night and move
through on Wednesday. High pressure builds back in for Thursday.
A warm front will lift through the area late in the week. A
weakening cold front will move into the region next weekend.


As of 730 PM Sunday...Updated to increase pops for the next few
hours across the area based on latest radar trends and some obs
showing -RA. A weakening shortwave will cross this evening.
Expect clouds to thicken in lower by early evening and may see
some very light showers or sprinkles cross thru mid to late
evening. Deeper moisture will begin to move SE of region late
with decreasing clouds from NW to SE. Milder than past few
nights with lows upr 30s N where skies will clear first to
low/mid 40s S and E.


As of 215 PM Sunday...Deeper moisture pushes well to the S with
PC to msunny skies expected over region. Increasing thicknesses
support mild highs mostly in the 60 to 65 dgr range.


As of 330 AM Sun...The long term period will feature above
normal temps, with a rainy period centered around mid week, then
another chance of showers late in the work week through next
weekend as an arctic cold front approaches the region.

Monday Night through Tuesday...Maintained the dry forecast, as
zonal flow will be in place along with mild conditions due to
heights/thicknesses above normal for late Dec. The dampening
short wave will be moisture starved as low levels will be quite
dry, so only expected occasional clouds streaming through, esp
southern half of the FA. Highs should warm further into the
upper 60s/lower 70s on Tuesday per low lvl thicknesses and MOS

Tuesday Night through Thursday...17/00Z operational global model
suite of ECMWF/CMC/GFS all in good agreement with southern
stream system ejecting out of the SW CONUS and sliding through
the SE CONUS mid week. Despite the system dampening as it
approaches and moves through, jet dynamics remain favorable for
widespread rain as area is under right entrance region of
subtropical jet on Wed. Best UVV will be from Wed morning
through early Thur evening, and thus have corresponding highest
pops (50-70%), highest southern half during this time frame.
UKMET/ECMWF are most bullish on QPF amounts and indicate around
an inch or so of rain. The system will be exiting the region Wed
night, though have hung on to a small POP mainly early Thur due
to some ensemble spread indicating rain holding on during the
first part of the day. Temps during this period held down a bit
into the 50s due to the clouds/rain. Mild temps continue
overnight with lows generally in the 40s.

Friday through Saturday...A pattern change is in store for much
of the country late in the week, as amplifying ridge across the
East Coast takes briefly takes hold due to arctic air mass
diving into the Upper Midwest/High Plains. This will spell a
return southerly flow across E NC with warm front potentially
bringing some showers as early as Friday, then area in warm
sector early in the weekend with shower chances ahead of slowly
approaching arctic cold front.

While good ensemble agreement is apparent with the synoptic
regime late in the week, timing and amplitude details will have
to be worked out onto when the potential arctic air arrives into
E NC if it does at all, as spread is quite large next weekend
with regards to height fields.


Short Term /through Monday/...
As of 630 PM Sunday...VFR conditions currently across the area,
with broken to overcast mid clouds. Mid clouds will lower this
evening as weak shortwave crosses. A sprinkle or two poss this
evening but no impact to vsbys expected. Confidence is low at
this time but there is potential for MVFR ceilings to develop
across the southernmost TAF sites (EWN/ISO/OAJ) early Mon and
persist through the day. Will keep VFR but there is potential
for tempo periods of MVFR. Clouds should limit any fog
potential overnight.

Long Term /Monday Night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...High pressure ridges in early in the week
with dry conditions through Tuesday. Rain chances increase
dramatically Tue night and esp Wednesday as quick moving low
pressure moves through. Along with the rain will come a chance
of sub VFR conditions for a time. FG/BR is also possible Monday
night as dewpoints will be on the rise and skies mostly clear
with light winds.


Short Term /Tonight and Monday/...
As of 630 PM Sunday...Latest obs show variable light winds and
seas across the waters this evening, generally W/S 10 kt or less
and seas 1-2 ft. Excellent boating conditions cont as high
pressure slowly move SE of region. This will lead to mainly SW
to W flow below 15 kts and seas 1 to 3 feet.

Long Term /Monday Night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Winds will be generally W to SW 5-15 kt
through Tue as zonal flow takes hold. Seas will be 1-3 ft.
SW winds increase to 10-20 kt Tue night ahead of low pressure
that will move through on Wed. Seas will increase to 2-4 ft
with locally higher seas by Tue night into Wed. Behind the
departing low late Wed night through Thur, chance of SCA
conditions develop as winds turn NE and increase to 15-25 kt
with building seas around 6 ft.




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