Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 221353
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
953 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Post-Tropical cyclone Jose will continue to weaken and drift
off the southeast New England coastline through the weekend.
Closer to home, high pressure will be centered to our north and
west through early next week. A cold front is expected to sweep
east through the Ohio Valley Wednesday and our region on
Thursday which will take Hurricane Maria northward then
northeast out to sea.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
This morning`s forecast is on track with just some minor tweaks
to note. H8 temps suggest afternoon highs should top out in the
lower to middle 80s across much of the forecast area. I shaved
a degree off of today`s highs in response. As noted earlier,
humidity levels will be lower today. It`s already noticeable
with some lower dewpoints compared to yesterday. We continue to
think that any shower activity from here on out today will
remain off the coast. So we didn`t make any changes there.
Models to do trend more clouds across the eastern half of the
CWA versus the western half. All-in-all, a dry day, a bit of a
breeze especially east of the Delaware Valley, and temps running
5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Previous discussion...
The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose will remain about 275
miles east of the New Jersey coast today. An area of rain
showers associated with the system was making a pass over the
waters off southern New Jersey and Delaware early this morning.
It should be the closest approach of any precipitation to our
region today. Any additional showers will likely remain farther
offshore.

Jose will continue to throw mainly high and mid level clouds
back over our region today. However, the clouds should not
prevent the sky from being partly to mostly sunny.

The wind should be from the north today increasing around 10
MPH. Occasional gusts near 20 MPH are expected, mainly in the
afternoon from the Interstate 95 corridor eastward. The
northerly flow is forecast to bring lowering humidity levels to
our region for today. Dew point readings are anticipated to drop
into the 50s.

Maximum temperatures will be mostly in the 80s as we greet the
arrival of autumn. The season changes at 4:02 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
Jose is forecast to begin drifting southeastward tonight as it
continues to weaken. The mid level ridge over the eastern half
of the country will bring dry conditions to our region for
tonight.

We are expecting a light northerly wind with temperatures
dropping into the middle and upper 50s in our northern counties
and into the lower and middle 60s in the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Saturday through Monday:

With high pressure centered to our northwest sunshine will be
ample each day. Mid-level temperatures are still likely to be
quite warm for mid/late-September would would yield highs in the
80`s for a good portion of the region after starting warm in
the 60`s. Some locations are still looking to have a fairly good
shot at 90 Sunday and/or Monday. MAV/MET along with the
ensemble guidance sets are starting to catch on to the degree of
the anomalous warmth thanks to a PNA which will be near four
standard deviations below normal. Some previous indications in
modeling had Jose surviving a westward trip back toward the
region. However, this forecast follows the NHC forecast to keep
a much weaker Jose well away from our region.

Tuesday through Thursday:

Will continue with the slight shower chances for Tuesday
through Thursday as a small amount of moisture from Maria may
move into the region along with an approaching cold front by
Thursday.

Stayed closer but still at or just a bit warmer than the mean
of the ensemble guidance for Tuesday and Wednesday given some
uncertainty with Maria. NHC/WPC forecast guidance currently
shows Maria remaining to our southeast and staying offshore
through the middle of next week. A cold front is likely to help
Steer Maria out to sea by the later part of next week. However,
trends should be watched because a slower approach of this front
could allow Maria to track closer to the coast. Stay tuned to
the latest advisories and forecasts from the National Hurricane
forecast for more information on Jose and Maria.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

A northerly wind is expected to increase around 10 knots for
today with occasional gusts in the upper teens in the late
morning and afternoon. Wind speeds will likely diminish to 8
knots or less for tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday: VFR. Winds generally 10 knots or
less.

&&

.MARINE...
A north to northwest wind is expected on our waters for today
and tonight. Speeds are anticipated to favor the 10 to 18 knot
range. There may be local gusts of 20 to 25 knots, especially on
our northern coastal waters.

Wave heights on our ocean waters will likely remain in the 4 to
7 foot range. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect there for today and tonight. Waves on Delaware Bay are
forecast to be 1 to 3 feet, perhaps around 4 feet near the mouth
of the bay.


Outlook...

Seas are expected to remain above five feet throughout the
outlook period and the SCA was extended till 10z Sunday.
Wavewatch is likely being too aggressive in reducing swells and
wave heights from Jose. Additional swell and increased wave
heights are likely by early next week in association with Maria.
Wind gusts are expected to be under 25 knots.

Rip Currents...

Long period swells of 4 to 6 feet emanating from Post-Tropical
Cyclone Jose will continue to reach the coasts of Delaware and
New Jersey today. As a result, we will carry a high risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents.

Outlook:

Saturday...At least a moderate risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents and a good chance of high risk as Maria`s
se swell of 15 seconds builds to 2 or possibly 3 feet and those
swells are on a collision course with the leftover 9 or 10
second ne swell from Jose. Its probably going to be rough water
and bit chaotic in the surf zone.

Sunday through Thursday are outlooked high risk days with the
greatest risk Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, due to leftover
Jose swells combined with building arriving southeast swells of
15 seconds to between 8 and 10 feet Tuesday and Wednesday.
Breaking surf along the beach surf zone play area will probably
reach 7 feet, if not a little higher. That should be almost
double the size of the breakers that occurred yesterday
afternoon.

So despite the very warm weather and still rather warm ocean
water temps (low-mid 70s), I wouldnt be swimming out there
unless you`re a certified lifeguard. The waters are going to get
rougher again, even with the distant passage of Maria next
week. Best practice: ankle deep at most and please dont put
would be rescuers at risk just because it might look safe.
Hopefully the sound of the surf will be enough notification of
its danger.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Based off of the current observations and trends, we decided to
issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for Atlantic, Cape May and
Sussex counties. A low end event is expected with this morning`s
high tide. High water could persist into the early afternoon
hours across the back bays and into lower Delaware Bay. Spotty
minor flooding could also occur along the shores of Kent county.
With this northerly flow, tides should be a bit higher on the
DE side of the bay.

Previous discussion...
Water levels remain a bit high due to the effects of Post-
Tropical Cyclone Jose and the recent new moon. There is the
potential for localized minor flooding along the coasts of
Delaware and New Jersey with this morning`s high tide. However,
the flooding should not be widespread or impactful enough to
warrant a Coastal Flood Advisory.

&&

.CLIMATE...
With high temperatures making a run at 90 Sunday and Monday
across the region, some record high temperatures may be tied or
broken. The highest chances are on Monday where all locations
but Georgetown are expected to be within three degrees of a
record.

Here are the records for both days.

Sunday

ACY-92(2010)
PHL 95(1970)
ILG-92(2010)
ABE-92(1970)
TTN-92(1970)
GED-97(2010)
RDG-95(1970)
MPO-85(2010)

Monday

ACY-91(1970)
PHL-92(1970)
ILG-93(1970)
ABE-92(1970)
TTN-92(1970)
GED-92(2010 and 1970)
RDG-92(1970)
MPO-85(1970)

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NJZ014-024>026.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NJZ022>025.
DE...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for DEZ004.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     DEZ003-004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Gaines
Near Term...Iovino/Kruzdlo
Short Term...Iovino
Long Term...Gaines
Aviation...Gaines/Iovino
Marine...Gaines/Iovino
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Iovino/Kruzdlo
Climate...Gaines


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