477
FXZS60 NSTU 140103
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
203 PM SST Mon May 13 2024

.Short term...

The front, that produced 14.63 inches of rain from this past
Wednesday through Sunday, has finally moved south of American
Samoa. A strong ridge from the southeast is now over the region
giving the territory a mix of sun and clouds with the occasional
passing shower and an easterly breeze of around 15 mph. These
conditions will continue through the rest of the afternoon and
through the overnight hours. However, we are monitoring a trough,
about 325 miles to the east of Ta`u as of early this afternoon,
moving towards the territory. The trough is expected to arrive
around mid morning on Tuesday. Showers may be consistent at times
during the day, but the atmospheric conditions does not show that
the trough will be strong enough to produce flash flooding in the
region. As the trough moves through, expect easterlies to increase
up to around 25 mph with higher gusts at times throughout the
day. By Tuesday evening, showers will become less frequent.

The trough will move west overnight Tuesday and the ridge will
move back over the region through Thursday. Easterlies only
decrease to around 20 mph. The likelihood of showers decreases to
scattered showers (50% chance). If showers occur, it will be in
the passing form. Otherwise, a mix of sun and clouds are expected
throughout the day.

.Long term...

By Friday and the weekend, a weak ridge will move over the region
from the southwest. Easterly winds will decrease to around 10 to
15 mph. If any showers occur, it will be in the passing form and
severe weather is not anticipated during this time.

&&

.Marine...

Seas remained hazardous this morning and early this afternoon as
the moderate to fresh easterly breeze mixes in with the long
period southerly swell moving through the American Samoa coastal
waters. Seas of 10 to 11 feet were recorded over the waters this
morning from a passing POES satellite. Seas of 9 to 12 feet will
continue on Tuesday due to the easterly breeze becoming a fresh
to strong breeze. Seas will only ease slightly to around 7 to 9
feet by Wednesday and Thursday as easterlies become a moderate to
fresh strength and southerly swell continues to move through.

Surf heights are on the higher end of the High Surf Advisory
criteria as of Monday afternoon. The advisory will continue
through Thursday. The Small Craft Advisory will continue until at
least Thursday and possibly into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

A High Surf Advisory remains in effect.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

&&

$$

LaPlante