Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000 FXUS65 KPUB 151720 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1020 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 343 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2017 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating drier air embedded within moderate northerly flow aloft moving across south central and southeast Colorado, with a large upper ridge in place across the West Coast through the Intermountain West. Water vapor imagery is also indicating Pacific moisture topping the ridge ahead of system moving onshore across the Pac NW at this time. At the surface, late night low clouds and patchy fog had developed across portions of the Pikes Peak Region, the San Luis Valley and the Mid Arkansas River Valley, though the drier air mixing across the area has helped to dissipate some of the stratus, with the GOES16/East fog product still indicating stratus/fog along and north of Highway 50, between Pueblo and the Otero/Crowley County line. Today and Tonight...Northerly flow aloft moderates through the day and becomes more westerly into tonight, as Pac Northwest system flattens the upper ridge as it translates into the Great Basin Region overnight. Dry weather is expected today, with warming aloft under the west to northwest flow aloft helping to boast temperatures back to above seasonal levels, with highs in the 50s to lower 60s expected across the the lower elevations, and mainly in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain. Will see some breezy westerly winds over and near the higher terrain today and tonight, leading warmer overnight lows across the area tonight. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 343 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2017 ...Roller coaster temperatures with a couple chances for light freezing/frozen precipitation... Upper trof will be approaching CO from the west on Saturday. Still a nice day ahead of the system but cold front will moving through the plains during the morning. Initially front is dry, but overnight as the upper trof shifts eastward, low levels start to saturate as shallow upslope flow develops. With majority of the forcing with the incoming trof dropping southward as an upper low closes off and drops into southern AZ and northern Mexico, precipitation along the lower eastern slopes of the southeast mts/adjacent plains will be forced by shallow upslope. Depending on depth of saturation, portions of the I-25 corridor and southeast plains could see some light freezing drizzle late Saturday night into Sunday morning. For now, most likely area will be Palmer Divide and perhaps Kiowa county where cold saturated airmass may saturate the deepest. Even for these areas any ice accumulation looks spotty and very light at this point so not anticipating any highlights. Temperatures on Sunday will remain around or below climo. There will be some snow showers across the mountains through the day, but with energy splitting as it moves across the area, accumulations will remain light. Skies clear out behind the system Sunday night though NW flow may start to spread mid/high cloudiness back into northern sections of the area towards dawn. Guidance is quite cold and given dry cold airmass over the area, have dropped back temperatures quite a bit over model blends, putting MinTs in the cold valley areas closer in line with guidance. It dries out and warms up into next week. Will have to watch Wednesday for a potential critical fire weather day as southwest flow aloft increases ahead of the next upper trof dropping in from the northwest. ECMWF is a little faster than GFS though both suggest a similar scenario with a quick hitting chance for snow Wednesday night/Thursday along with much colder air. H7 temperatures on Friday will be around -10C which would will put highs potentially in the 30s for most areas. This could be just a taste of what`s to come as GFS suggests another system will drop in from the north sending our first really cold spell into the area on Saturday. ECMWF is much warmer and thus confidence is low at this point, so will have to see how the models trend over the next several days. -KT && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1018 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2017 VFR conditions can be expected at KCOS, KPUB and KALS thru the next 24 hrs. Winds at the terminal forecast sites should generally be under 12 kts.
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&& .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...28

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