Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000 FXUS65 KPUB 190525 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1125 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1125 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Tweaked low temperatures across the area, as some valley locales are seeing good radiational cooling with the dry airmass in place. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 406 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017 ...Generally Warm & Dry Next 24 Hours... Upper ridge and dry westerly flow will continue over the forecast area tonight. On Thursday, the weather pattern will start to modify a little as a weak disturbance over southern Nevada this afternoon shifts northeastward into the area. The disturbance will bring a gradual increase in mid and upper level moisture to the region overnight. On Thursday, moisture may thicken enough to bring a few spotty showers to the mountains by late in the day. However, nothing too widespread or intense is expected. Temperatures will continue above average with afternoon highs on Thursday generally 5 or more degrees above normals. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 406 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Overall, low-grade to nil pops in combination with basically near to above mid to latter October climatological average temperatures are anticipated over the forecast district during the longer term. In addition, localized elevated fire weather concerns and gusty winds are also meteorological concerns at times. Initially, a weak upper disturbance(capable of generating light precipitation(under .05")...over primarily higher terrain western locations) should impact the forecast district Thursday night. Then, basically dry and gusty southwesterly upper flow should be noted from Friday into Friday evening in advance of next potentially stronger upper system from later Friday evening into Saturday. In addition, a north-northeasterly surface surge moves across eastern sections of the CWA by Saturday morning. At this time, total precipitation amounts under .35" may be noted over a few locations with snow amounts under 3 inches possible over select central mountain locations from later Friday evening into later Saturday. Please note that many lower elevations may not receive any measurable precipitation with this event. Also, localized elevated fire weather concerns will be a possibility Saturday afternoon over portions of the San Luis Valley. As always, WFO Pueblo will monitor closely and issue meteorological highlights as needed/warranted. Then, a return to a basically dry northwesterly upper flow meteorological pattern is anticipated over the forecast district from Saturday night into next Wednesday in combination with another north-northeasterly surface surge by Monday evening. Overall, gusty winds at times as well as near to above seasonal temperatures should be experienced over the forecast district during this time-frame. At this time, it appears that the warmest temperatures during the longer term over the forecast district should be realized Friday, Monday and Wednesday with Friday expected to be the warmest day, while coolest temperature readings should be experienced Saturday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1117 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017 VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hrs at KCOS, KPUB and KALS, with mainly high level clouds covering the area. Diurnally driven winds are expected at the forecast sites. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MW AVIATION...28

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