Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 220845
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PUSHING FROM SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHWEST MANITOBA WHILE COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA STRETCHING JUST TO THE WEST OF A LINE
FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA INTO WESTERN WYOMING WITH RIDGE
OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS IS BRINGING ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
OUR AREA WITH A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES SLIDING THROUGH AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TODAY...TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SLIDING
OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS...COMBINED WITH PROGRESSING COLD
FRONT...WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES COMING LATER TODAY MAINLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS MAIN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BRINGING QUIET CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS BROAD
RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CONTINUED WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AS MODELS TRY TO BRING A BROAD TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION.
MOST MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH KISN AND KDIK AS OF 06Z WEDNESDAY.
REST OF THE TERMINALS HAVE SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN
AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS NOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL SHIFT
TOWARD KISN/KDIK BY 13Z WEDNESDAY...AND INTO KMOT BY 18Z. THERE
COULD BE INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT THESE TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH A VCSH OVER THE
AERODROMES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KJMS
WHERE PREDOMINANT -SHRA IS FORECAST BETWEEN 15Z AND 23Z WEDNESDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS






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