Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 291823
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
223 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH LIFT
APPEARS WEAK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA WITH RESULTING WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
REGIONAL RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. HI-RESOLUTION MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE WEST AND SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR EAST. PWAT
VALUES SOUTH AND WEST ARE JUST OVER 2.0 INCHES THUS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. AIR MASS IS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -2 TO -6. HAVE
CONTINUED MAINLY CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE WEST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PULL A LITTLE
FARTHER EASTWARD ALLOWING THE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. ECMWF IS ABOUT
6HRS SLOWER THEN THE NAM OR GFS. HAVE TRENDED WITH THE NAM/GFS IN
LOWERING POPS THIS PERIOD. NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
90-95 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL AN ISSUE AS THE
GFS MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT
TO OUR SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF STALLS THE
FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF OUR FA. GULF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. TOOK A BLEND OF MOS
OUTPUT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
SO WILL KEEP DAY TIME TEMPS IN THE MID 90...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
70S WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

18Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCLUDE VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20/02Z AND HAVE ADDED
TEMPO GROUPS AT AGS/DNL TO HANDLE THE STORMS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THOSE SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
30/06Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
RESTRICTIONS IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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