Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 041615
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1215 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARDS
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER THE ARE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...ALONG WITH SEA-
BREEZE...SHOULD BE THE ONLY FOCUS AREAS FOR ANY CONVECTION. PWAT
VALUES STILL BETWEEN 1.6-1.8 INCHES...SO MARGINAL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO FORM. EXPECT GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...MAINLY DUE TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID
90S LOOKING ON TRACK.

LATER TONIGHT THE MODELS BEGIN TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AND MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING BACK
DOOR FRONT. EXPECT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS RATHER LOW...BUT FEEL
THAT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION.  MOISTURE LIKELY TO BE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH
PWAT VALUES JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
A POSSIBLE WEAK DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL WARRANT HIGH CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.  ABUNDANT CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION AND RESULT IN
COOLER...NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH.  COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY IN
THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH A PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE REGION BETWEEN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.  PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
TO WARRANT AT LEAST DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MERGES WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...SUPPRESSING THE UPPER LOW INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT GENERALLY LESS CONVECTION WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT TO BKN CU. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$


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