Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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958
FXUS62 KCAE 051021
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
621 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
WITH US TODAY AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
MIDLANDS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS AROUND -25C. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. THE
PREDOMINANT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST. 0-3KM LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO BECOME
VERY STEEP BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AROUND 8-10C/KM
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALLING TO AROUND -2C. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6
INCHES...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO
PROVIDE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
REPORTS DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT AND STRONGER WIND
GUSTS WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND A BIT OF AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING NEAR THE SURFACE.
POPS RANGE FROM CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDLAND AND CSRA.

SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS HEATING
DIMINISHES AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE. COULD SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AND BETTER FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND COOL AIR MASS AND SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
THIS WILL WARRANT KEEPING A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE PEE
DEE REGION AND MIDLANDS...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEWBERRY
TO COLUMBIA TO LAKE MARION. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR...THUS ENDING THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP CLOSED LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL
SET UP A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TO TRACK OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE MODELS REGARDING MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND HOW THAT MAY RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA SO WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AND INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...THEN WARM ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY AND
SHOULD RESULT IN BROKEN VFR LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS AT THE TERMINALS FROM
ABOUT 17-23Z. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR...WITH GUSTS
EXPECTED TO PEAK UPWARDS OF AROUND 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



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