Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 221623
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1123 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure near Florida will keep onshore flow over the
area with low chances of showers through Thursday. A cold front
with limited moisture will cross the region Saturday with dry
high pressure building into the region for Sunday into next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure off the Delmarva coast and low pressure near
Florida will direct a moist onshore flow into the forecast area
through tonight. Deeper moisture and greater instability will
remain south and east of the forecast area ahead of an upper low
over the northeast Gulf and Florida. Showers associated with
the low-level flow should remain limited because of shallow
moisture. The high-resolution models display little coverage.
The moisture combined with nighttime cooling may result in fog
development late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Remains of the low pressure will become further disorganized as
it moves from the FL Peninsula off the eastern coast and toward
the Bahamas. This will allow weak high pressure to build into
the forecast area with onshore flow subsiding. Pwat values will
drop below one inch and with drier air moving into the upper
levels for Thursday afternoon through Friday night chances of
showers will end Thursday afternoon. Skies will be mostly
cloudy Thursday then become mostly sunny Friday as direr air
moves into the lower levels. The situation will begin changing
late Friday night as strong low pressure moves into the western
Great Lakes and pushes a cold front eastward from the Ohio
Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Temperatures will be in the
middle 70s to around 80 for daytime highs with overnight lows in
the middle to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure will move into the Great Lakes with the cold front
moving into Upstate SC Saturday around sunrise and into the
Midlands during the late morning. Moisture with the front
remains limited so have kept pops limited to chance or lower.
Cold front will quickly move offshore Saturday afternoon with
dry high pressure moving in for Saturday night through Sunday
night. High pressure will move east of the area Monday with
unsettled weather returning to the region for Monday night and
Tuesday. Temperatures through the long term will remain above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure off the Delmarva coast and low pressure near
Florida will direct a moist onshore flow into the forecast area
through tonight. Deeper moisture and greater instability will
remain south and east of the forecast area ahead of an upper low
over the northeast Gulf and Florida. Showers associated with
the low-level flow should remain limited because of shallow
moisture. The high-resolution models display little coverage.
The shower chance was too low in include in the terminal
forecasts at this time. The moisture combined with nighttime
cooling may result in fog development late tonight. Followed the
GFS LAMP guidance and forecasted MVFR conditions developing at
CAE, CUB, and OGB, and IFR conditions at AGS and DNL. Higher
low-level moisture supported the greater restrictions at the
southern terminals.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible mainly in late
night and early morning stratus and fog.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99


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