Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 271556
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1056 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL
FINALLY CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN. A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BEGIN
TO MOISTEN THIS EVENING. PWAT LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH WILL
INCREASE BETWEEN 1.O AND 1.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT.

THE LATEST MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE RETURN. LATEST TRENDS INDICATE A
DRY FORECAST TODAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OVERNIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ANY RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT.

WENT WITH PERSISTENCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TODAY.
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
SUNDAY...THEN INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN DECREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND PWAT DECREASES.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
COOL TO THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...GRADUALLY BUILDING EAST
INTO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF
FORECAST 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE TEMPERATURES LIKELY
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS PUSHING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
LOWER CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
ONLY ALLOWS FOR INCLUSION OF VCSH FROM 28/08Z ONWARD ATTM. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ030.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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