Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 020526
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1226 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING THE SURFACE BASED POOL OF
COLD AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE MADE THIS ADDITION TO
THE FORECAST. POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODEL LI FIELDS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA MONDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH THE
WIND TURNING MORE FROM THE NORTH. AT 850 MB THE WIND GOES FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEGINNING OF ANOTHER WEDGE SETTING UP AND POPS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY DAYS END. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET
TEMPS MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN THESE ARE TOO HIGH UNLESS
WE GET SOME SUN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COOL WEDGE AND WARRANT INCREASED POPS
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE SOME OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE CSRA CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A
COLD AIR DAMMING EPISODE MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN SO HAVE SCALED BACK DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE LURKING NEAR ANOTHER STALLED FRONT ALONG
THE GULF COAST...BUT WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A STRONG GRADIENT
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHERN MIDLANDS
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH AN ERODING CAD
WEDGE. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR. COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIFR/IFR VSBYS
AND CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END
MVFR CIGS BY 21Z AND DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. THE IMPROVED
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AGAIN
AND YET ANOTHER WEDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT
EXPECTED MAINLY BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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