Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 121147
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
647 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry cold front will cross the forecast area late this morning
with high pressure and reinforcing cold air moving into the
region this afternoon and tonight. High pressure will control
the region for Wednesday through Thursday with unsettled weather
for Friday through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry cold front currently moving into the Upstate will cross the
forecast area late this morning into early this afternoon then
offshore by late afternoon. High pressure along with drier air
and cold air advection will begin building back into the
forecast area this afternoon along with strong and gusty winds.
Temperatures will warm through the early afternoon hours then
begin cooling by mid afternoon as the cold air advection
becomes dominant and temperatures dropping rapidly with sunset.
Winds on area lakes will be around 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph
from this afternoon through the early morning hours Wednesday
resulting in issuance of a lake wind advisory. High temperatures
this afternoon will range from the mid 50s over the western
Midlands to the upper 50s to low 60s in the eastern Midlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be over the region for Wednesday through
Thursday with the next system moving into the region Thursday
night. Expect some increasing clouds Thursday night as some Gulf
moisture begins returning northward while low pressure digs into
the mid MS Valley. Models continue to depict the moisture return
as a split stream with much of the Gulf moisture remaining south
of the area Thursday night with the northern stream only
reaching the TN Valley and remaining north of the area. With the
split stream and dry air to overcome have remained without
mention of rain Thursday night. High temperatures Wednesday
afternoon will only reach the mid to upper 40s and moderating
to the mid and upper 50s on Thursday afternoon. Overnight lows
will be in the low 30s Wednesday night and the mid to upper 30s
Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weather for Friday through Monday remains unsettled with models
continuing to make run to run changes and differences in timing
and intensity of features between models. Models do agree upper
level trough swinging through the forecast area Friday night
with much of the moisture associated with the system maintaining
a split flow around the area. Have remained with slight chance
pops for Friday due to low confidence and pops quickly exiting
the area Friday night as the system ejects from the region. High
pressure will quickly build back into the region Saturday and
with the upper level pattern becoming less amplified systems
will begin quickly crossing the area. On Sunday the high
pressure will move away from the region as the next low pressure
system develops over the southern Plains region and ushers Gulf
moisture northward. Models differ with timing and intensity of
this system however agree on rain returning to the forecast area
Sunday afternoon through Monday. Temperatures through the long
term will be below normal Friday and Saturday with near normal
for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF
period. Low-level wind shear through 14z this morning.

An approaching cold front will move through the area by midday
Ridging along the Gulf Coast will limit moisture recovery ahead
of the front. Expect mainly mid and high level clouds ahead of
the front...and strato cu behind the front. Based on vad wind
profile will continue low level wind shear until mixing develops
around 14z. Strong downward vertical motion/moderately strong cold
advection behind the front this afternoon and evening. Winds
will shift from west-southwest ahead of the front to west-
northwest 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. A few stronger gusts
possible especially in the CSRA and southeast Midlands where
surface pressure gradient will be tighter. Gusty winds will
continue into the evening then diminish by 06z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
     Wednesday for GAZ040-063>065-077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
     Wednesday for SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$


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