Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 050805
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INLAND TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONT
MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE BEEN THE RULE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND AT DAWN
HOWEVER A STRONG CAP WILL PRECLUDE ANY RISK FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS.

THE PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS WILL
SETUP TODAY WHILE BERMUDA HIGH PRES EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW ATLC
INTO FLORIDA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WARM INTO THE LOWER
90S MANY AREAS AROUND NOON WITH READINGS ON THEIR WAY TO THE UPPER
90S ACROSS OUR NW TIER OF ZONES BORDERING THE CSRA AND SE MIDLANDS
TO THE SOLID MID 90S ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR. SURFACE DEW
POINTS WELL INLAND TO THE NORTH OF I-16 ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO 105 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN CLOSER TO THE COAST...SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
SUBTLE MIXING TRENDS WILL OCCUR AND WE ARE STILL NOT EXPECTING
EXCESSIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 110 DEGREES TODAY.

DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT INVADED MUCH OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA ON
TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING DEEPER
LAYERED MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. MAINLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SLIGHT BETTER LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES ACROSS SE
GEORGIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16 WHERE SOME 2 INCH
PWATS RETURN. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW STRONG PULSE TSTMS IN
THIS REGION BUT OVERALL THERE STILL SEEMS TO BE A LINGERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN 12 KFT AND 15 KFT WHICH WILL TEMPER
UPDRAFT STRENGTH POTENTIAL.

ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND TRENDED
DRY OVERNIGHT DESPITE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LINGERING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOW TEMPS TYPICAL FOR
THE SEASON...MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOK FAIRLY ACTIVE DUE TO A SERIES OF STRONG
SHORTWAVES DROPPING INTO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ADVECT 2"+
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO THE REGION. ON THURSDAY THE INITIAL
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE TRIGGERED BY BOTH THE SEA BREEZE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH. THURSDAY NIGHT THERE IS FAIRLY
STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER VORTICITY ENERGY.

FRIDAY...THE BRUNT OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST
BUT SEVERAL MODELS SHOW A CONTINUED STREAM OF VORT ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING. PWATS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2" FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY.
THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...
REDUCING RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN AREAS THOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND TSTM COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS AND INCREASES MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW TUESDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL MUCH TOO LOW FOR ANY TAF
INCLUSION CONSIDERATIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAIN CONCERNS ARE OCCASIONAL
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND/OR CEILING DUE TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL MARINE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. TYPICAL WARM-SEASON SURGES ARE EXPECTED
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15G20KT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WHILE THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DOWN TO GRAY
REEF NMS SEE A SIMILAR SURGE INITIATE LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE EBBING LATE. SEAS IN THE 2-3
FT RANGE TODAY WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20
NM.

A PERSISTENT SW FLOW CONTINUES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL A
COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. FAIRLY WEAK WIND
FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN.

RIP CURRENTS...WE MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK ALONG CHARLESTON
COUNTY BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL


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