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000
FXUS63 KDLH 221729
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1229 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CLOUDY
SKIES COVER MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE CLEAR
SKIES HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE KINL AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOUTH. MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CIGS OR VSBYS FROM -RA AND BR...AT KDLH/KBRD/KHYR WILL GENERALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE CIGS LIFT AND THEN CLEAR OUT. EXPECT NE WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR MOST OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN SOME WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT KDLH DUE THE STRONG WINDS COMING
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND GUSTS SHOULD BE UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF WIND SHEAR AT KDLH/KBRD/KHYR THROUGH TONIGHT
DUE TO STRONG NE WINDS ALOFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY COVER AND RIBBON OF -RA/DZ
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. THE REGION OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE WIS ZONES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LATEST HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MUCH DRIER AIR SINKS
INTO THE NRN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT 1030 AM...VIS SAT
IMAGERY DEPICTED THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAD PUSHED INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MN...AND REACHED A LINE FROM CRANE LAKE..TO BEMIDJI. BASED
ON RH FIELDS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS...EXPECTING THE CLEARING LINE TO
REACH THE RANGE CITIES BY NOON...REACHING A KBRD TO KDLH LINE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON /AROUND 4-5 PM/...THEN PASSING OVER THE WIS ZONES
THROUGH THE EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NW WI AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WHERE A RIDGE OF DRIER AIR IS PUSHING INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TODAY ENDING THE
PRECIP NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS OFF TO THE
EAST BY TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING IS
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY UP FOR NOW AS RIVERS AND
CREEKS ARE HIGH BUT SOME ARE CRESTING NOW. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES
DUE TO THE LATEST RAINS BUT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH.

TONIGHT...THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL SPREAD INTO NW WI BY
THIS EVENING WITH ALL RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN PRICE COUNTY BY 06Z
THU. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE FLOW AROUND THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL PUSH VERY
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP
MIXING WHICH WILL DRY OUT THE COLUMN. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOWEST VALUES IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE 30S. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME 20S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI AND THE MN
ARROWHEAD...WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS TO
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW FOR NOW. WE DO NOT START FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME FRAME BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD
FROST IF NOT A FREEZE. THE WEATHER THEN STARTS TO GET A LITTLE MORE
QUESTIONABLE STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED...AS HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE BATTLES EMERGING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE ONLY REAL BATTLEGROUND
SHOULD BE IN THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NE HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS POPS FOR
NOW...WHICH FAVOR THE SW HALF WITH SOME SMALL POPS. IN ALL IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE A VERY WET PERIOD...JUST PERIODIC CHANCES OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY SW. BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
START IN THE 60S AND RECOVER TO THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  57  36  63 /  10   0   0   0
INL  30  62  34  67 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  39  65  37  66 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  36  61  32  66 /  40   0   0   0
ASX  37  54  32  63 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI