Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 301151
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
651 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ADDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO WATCH WARNING ADVISORY SECTION
BELOW. VERY STRONG WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WILL BE
EVEN STRONGER OVER THE LAKE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS
AND GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE MAY NEED
A GALE WARNING TONIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WE NEED AT LEAST A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. INCREASED THE SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS BASED ON THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND ISSUED A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR IRON COUNTY FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WERE NEAR SE SOUTH DAKOTA AND NE
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MOVING TO THE SE. A SUBTLE TROUGH
WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THIS TROUGH...AND A LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND NORTH OF THE LOW...WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE NOT MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE. THE

COLD NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER AND COULD HELP
PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REAL BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL COME LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
DUE TO THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS COLD AIR MASS LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE THE COLDEST THE NORTHLAND HAS SEEN THIS FALL. THE
850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS COLD AS -9 TO -12 DEGREES CELSIUS
BY LATE THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ON THE RAP13/NAM12/GFS
INDICATE THAT A RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING LAYER...WHICH WILL LAST
WELL INTO TONIGHT...COULD BRING WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. THE
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS BY LATE THIS
EVENING.

THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NW WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS EVENING WITH THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES. SNOWFALL INTENSITY SHOULD PEAK LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE WEE HOURS OF FRIDAY MORNING. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING. LEANED ON THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS FOR PCPN AND SNOWFALL. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES SHOULD BE NEAR AND ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON
COUNTY. THERE COULD BE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN THE HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS...SO TRAVEL COULD BE DIFFICULT ALONG
HIGHWAY 2 IN IRON AND ASHLAND COUNTIES.

WHILE PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN CAN EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT...MOST OF THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL SEE
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST. HALLOWEEN WILL
BE A SUNNY DAY...BUT ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS THIS FALL SO FAR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SO PARENTS MIGHT WANT TO CONSIDER ENSURING
THEIR CHILDREN TRICK-OR-TREATING WEAR APPROPRIATE CLOTHING TO STAY
WARM.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT SO FAR
THIS FALL...WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW
20S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. WE SHOULD BE CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...STILL TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL HAVE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TEENS. SO...WHILE IT WILL BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT IT WONT BE PERFECT. THUS...HAVE GONE ON THE COLD END OF
GUIDANCE...BUT NOT BELOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THOUGH TO SEE
SOME MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR OUR COLD SPOTS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS LEAVES A VERY CHILLY EVENING FOR OUR TRICK-
OR-TREATERS...HOPEFULLY THE WINTER COATS FIT INTO THE COSTUME.

CONDITIONS REMAIN COOL AND QUIET THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD THOUGH...SO EXPECT THINGS TO REMAIN
QUIET WITH MAINLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HIGHS TO GRADUALLY
WARM BACK INTO THE 40S BY SUNDAY...WITH MINS IN THE LOW 30S SUNDAY
NIGHT. OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OUT IN THE PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WILL MOVE EAST TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND UP INTO
MANITOBA AND ON TO ONTARIO. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE UP INTO THE 40S
TO LOW 50S. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL
BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS
NOT A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 40S. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT VERY HIGH AND HAVE LEFT POPS PRETTY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS A
WAVE BRINGS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BRING CLEARING SKIES AND A WIND SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST. WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 25 KTS
OR HIGHER FOR SEVERAL HOURS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY AFFECT KHIB...KDLH AND KHYR BEHIND
THE FRONT AS COLD AIR STRATUS WRAPS AROUND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  23  37  20 /  30  10   0   0
INL  36  21  37  17 /  30  10   0   0
BRD  42  22  38  20 /  30  10   0   0
HYR  45  24  38  16 /  30  20   0   0
ASX  44  29  38  21 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CDT
     FRIDAY FOR WIZ004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE








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