Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 072037
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
137 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BORDERLAND WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
THE LOWLANDS WITH NO SIGN OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH SENSIBLE WEATHER TO WORRY ABOUT OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH EL NINO PATTERN DISAPPEARING FOR AT LEAST NEXT 10 DAYS.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK PUSH FROM THE EAST TONIGHT OF COOLER AIR
WHICH MAY DROP HIGHS TOMORROW A FEW DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO SOME E TO
NE WINDS AND SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS CWA AT THIS TIME.
AFTER MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BE
SHIFTING EASTWARD AND BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 70 FOR THE LOWLANDS WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
AN ISSUE AT ANYTIME DURING THE PERIOD...BUT DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN
LOW AND ALLOW FOR 30 TO 40 DEGREE DIURNAL SPREADS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 07/00Z-08/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN250 THRU PD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH
AT SPEEDS BELOW 10 KTS. LOOK FOR A WEAK FRONT TO TURN WINDS MORE
EASTERLY BY 12Z WITH WINDS APPROACHING 12 KTS AT KELP. WEST SLOPE
LOCATIONS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE GUSTY CONDITIONS 09Z THRU 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND ALLOWING FOR A STEADY WARMING
TREND. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOW THE WARMING TREND
BRIEFLY MONDAY AND WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER EAST
WINDS MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK
AHEAD. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE TRENDING DOWN AS THE TEMP RISES.
DESPITE RH VALUES FALLING TO CRITICAL LEVELS...LIGHTER WINDS WILL
PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LOW SIDE IN THE DAYS AHEAD DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS DUE IN PART TO
FAIRLY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER TRANSPORT WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 32  61  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           28  57  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              29  60  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              27  59  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              24  45  20  46 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   28  59  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             27  57  26  58 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  26  62  25  62 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               25  63  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      33  60  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               25  58  24  63 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            30  61  29  64 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              30  56  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  28  61  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            31  60  26  62 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          29  60  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           18  60  15  62 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   27  62  26  63 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                28  61  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               29  59  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 26  57  23  56 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               25  53  21  53 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                24  51  21  52 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 24  55  24  58 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               25  57  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               25  60  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            18  60  21  57 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  23  57  22  60 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   20  64  19  65 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              15  65  17  63 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 24  60  23  60 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  24  64  26  63 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 25  62  24  63 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          23  62  22  61 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              26  60  25  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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