Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 292056
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
256 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE WILL BE COMING TO THE BORDERLAND ON SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT FROM THE EAST WILL PUSH WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE
LINE BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
BY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREADING WESTWARD TO THE REST OF
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE WITH POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WITH
LESS INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST INTO THE UPPER 90S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS/FORECASTS APPEAR TO STILL BE ON TRACK FOR A CHANGE IN THE WX
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL DROP DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS IT PLUNGES INTO THE GT PLAINS (CLIPPER
FASHION) A CPL AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW INTO THE PLAINS WITH THIS AIR
MASS PUSHING IN TO OUR CWA IN A BACKDOOR STYLE AS WE CONTINUE OUR
UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR SPRING. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
MORE EASTERLY IN PREFONTAL MODE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN PICK UP
MORE FROM THE EAST AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND PASSES MAY SEE SOME GUSTS IN TO THE 25 TO 30 MPH
RANGE.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AND THEN SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE
REST OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL BLENDS SHOW CAPES
OF ABOUT 500-2000 J/KG (HIGHEST EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY) AND
LI`S OF ABOUT -2 TO -6. THE DIRECTIONAL WILL NOT BE CLASSICAL
UNIFORM BACKING FROM THE LOW SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER WEST
SOUTHWESTERLIES SATURDAY BUT RATHER AND ESE FLOW OF 10-20 KNOTS
FROM THE SURFACE TO 750 MB THEN WNW FLOW ABOVE TO ABOUT 45 KNOTS.
EVEN THOUGH NOT CLASSICAL THIS JUXTAPOSITION OF NW FLOW ALOFT
(ESPECIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE EMBEDDED IMPULSE) OVER LOW LEVEL MOIST
EASTERLIES IS A KNOW SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCER IN OUR CWA.

THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
OF AROUND 13,000 MSL (EVEN THOUGH JUST A TAD HIGH) SHOULD STILL BE
ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LARGER HAIL. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREATS FOR SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ETA FORECAST
PW`S TO INCREASE TO THE .8 TO 1.1 INCH RANGE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AGAIN HIGHEST EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THUS...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. NOT
LOOKING (ATTM) FOR REAL WIDESPREAD AND REAL INTENSE CONVECTION BUT
AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED SCALE SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER AT THIS TIME PUTS MOST OF NEW MEXICO
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE IN A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE ADVECTS IN WARMER AIR ALOFT
OVER NEW MEXICO AND LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE PERSISTS AS THERE
IS YET NO REAL MECHANISM IN PLACE TO FLUSH IT OUT CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE ON SUNDAY ON A LESSER SCALE AND WEAKEN EVEN MORE ON
MONDAY. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY ON
TUESDAY BUT THE TREND IS DEFINITELY DOWNWARD.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW T.S. ANDRES HAVING NO
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER MID WEEK. BOTH MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE NEXT
TROPICAL FEATURE (BLANCA). THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE NORTHWARD
TRAJECTORY SPREADING MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS  WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT MUCH FURTHER WEST...WEST OF THE
BAJA.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/00Z-31/00Z.
A FEW CU/TCU BUILD-UPS OVER THE BLACK RANGE AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
MAY YIELD AN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BEFORE
SUNSET. OTHERWISE... EXPECT LIGHT AND GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS TO
PREVAIL MOST OF THE EVENING. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...SNEAKING INTO SIERRA COUNTY
BY 12Z...A DMN-ELP LINE BY 15Z...AND REACHING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AROUND 18Z. INCREASING MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AND AIRMASS
RECOVERY WILL LEAD TO DESTABILIZATION WITH ISO TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE BEST COVERAGE
WILL GENERALLY BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN.
A FEW STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MAY HELP POP OFF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE BLACK RANGE OR SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT
THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT... REACHING THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AROUND NOON. EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG WEST-FACING SLOPES
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A HEALTHY BOOST IN HUMIDITY. THIS ADDED
MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN SOME AREAS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL BE FAVORED. GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL POSSIBLE
WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY DESPITE A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION.
THIS RIDGE WILL BRING INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS WEDNESDAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 66  91  64  90  68 /   0  20  30  10   0
SIERRA BLANCA           61  87  57  85  61 /   0  40  50  10   0
LAS CRUCES              59  89  59  89  62 /   0  20  20  10   0
ALAMOGORDO              60  87  57  88  61 /   0  30  40  20  10
CLOUDCROFT              41  65  41  66  48 /   0  30  40  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   58  87  59  88  63 /   0  20  30  20  10
SILVER CITY             52  83  52  80  57 /   0  10  20  20  20
DEMING                  57  91  57  91  61 /   0   0  20   0   0
LORDSBURG               58  91  59  91  62 /   0   0  10  10   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      66  91  64  91  68 /   0  20  30  10   0
DELL CITY               59  88  56  85  60 /   0  40  40  10   0
FORT HANCOCK            64  90  61  90  64 /   0  40  50  10   0
LOMA LINDA              58  83  55  81  62 /   0  30  40  10   0
FABENS                  62  91  60  91  63 /   0  20  40  10   0
SANTA TERESA            63  90  60  90  64 /   0  20  20  10   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          63  88  61  88  65 /   0  20  40  10   0
JORNADA RANGE           57  88  56  89  59 /   0  20  30  10   0
HATCH                   58  90  58  90  61 /   0  20  20  10   0
COLUMBUS                62  90  62  90  65 /   0   0  10   0   0
OROGRANDE               62  87  60  87  65 /   0  20  40  10   0
MAYHILL                 47  70  46  72  52 /   0  40  50  30  10
MESCALERO               45  73  43  74  51 /   0  40  50  20  20
TIMBERON                46  73  45  72  51 /   0  30  40  20  10
WINSTON                 49  80  47  78  54 /   0  20  30  30  20
HILLSBORO               55  88  52  86  58 /   0  20  30  20  20
SPACEPORT               55  89  54  90  59 /   0  20  40  10  10
LAKE ROBERTS            49  83  48  80  53 /   0  20  30  30  20
HURLEY                  53  85  51  82  56 /   0  10  20  20  10
CLIFF                   42  87  45  89  57 /   0  10  10  20  10
MULE CREEK              41  87  43  86  52 /   0   0   0  10   0
FAYWOOD                 55  85  53  82  59 /   0  10  20  20  10
ANIMAS                  59  92  59  92  63 /   0   0   0  10   0
HACHITA                 57  92  57  92  62 /   0   0  10  10   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          57  92  56  92  61 /   0   0   0  10   0
CLOVERDALE              55  89  54  87  60 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20/25 NOVLAN / HARDIMAN





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