Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 250955
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
355 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture and sufficient afternoon heating, along with a nearby
upper disturbance will result in an increase in thunderstorm
activity through the weekend and possibly Monday. As we approach
midweek, high pressure aloft will strengthen overhead area and
lead to a warming trend with less thunderstorms in the area.
Triple digit heat will disappear the next few days before
returning toward the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An inverted trough near the Big Bend area will become nearly
stationary and provide lift and instability as well as additional
moisture to the Borderland through the weekend. In addition, a
thermal trough along the Rio Grande will continue the low level
convergence we`ve seen the last couple of days. This all spells
an increase in thunderstorm coverage, with more significant
rainfall amounts. The low level convergence zone will shift
further west Monday which will concentrate convection west of the
Rio Grande by then.

By midweek the upper high, currently centered north of the
Borderland, will settle further south and start to reduce the
thunderstorm activity. Storm chances will never go away this
forecast period due to moisture trapped under the ridge, but they
will favor the mountains as well as the lowlands west of the
divide. Meanwhile, after a break of up to 4 or 5 days below 100,
triple digit heat will return to the lower elevations as we
approach next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 25/12Z-26/12Z. Weak ridge of high pressure
aloft oriented east-west across the southwest and southern USA,
will maintain generally light winds across the area. lowland VFR
conds during the whole period SCT080-100 with the exception of
areas close to thunderstorm activity. Look for winds
250-290/10-15 kts generally west of the Rio Grande and
140-170/5-10 KTS for areas east. Winds shift 300-330 all areas aft
00Z with speeds 5-10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Broad but weak upper level high pressure oriented east-west across
the southern states will continue to be centered a little north of
the region today. This will mean more light winds and muggy
conditions for the next couple of days. Tonight an easterly wave
will approach from the east-southeast while western portion of
the high re-centers northwestward over the four corners. These
actions will bring increasing moisture to the area into early
next week. As a consequence, an uptick in thunderstorm activity
is expected for all areas tonight through Monday. The upper wave
and associated instability move west of the area Tuesday
night, replaced by drier continental air flowing from the
northeast later next week and a return to fewer thunderstorms.

Min RH outside storms through Saturday will range from the upper
teens lowlands to lower 30s across highest elevations in the Gila
region and Sacramento Mtns. Values climb roughly 10 percent
Sunday, then another 5-10% Monday as the easterly wave moves
nearby to our south. Lowland min RH is expected to fall back to
the upper teens middle/later next week while mountain values drop
to around 40%. Fair to poor vent rates can be expected generally
north of a Lordsburg-Dunken line through early next week while
very good ventilation is anticipated south of this line.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 98  74  95  74 /  10  30  30  30
Sierra Blanca           95  67  89  68 /  10  30  30  30
Las Cruces              97  69  93  69 /  10  30  30  30
Alamogordo              97  70  92  69 /  20  30  30  30
Cloudcroft              76  52  69  52 /  40  40  40  50
Truth or Consequences   96  69  90  68 /  20  20  30  30
Silver City             92  64  87  64 /  20  30  40  30
Deming                  99  69  94  71 /  10  20  30  30
Lordsburg               99  68  95  70 /  10  20  30  20
West El Paso Metro      99  75  94  75 /  10  30  30  30
Dell City               98  66  91  65 /  10  30  30  20
Fort Hancock            99  72  95  72 /  10  30  30  30
Loma Linda              93  67  87  66 /  10  30  30  30
Fabens                 100  71  95  71 /  10  30  30  30
Santa Teresa            98  72  94  72 /  10  30  30  30
White Sands HQ          96  71  92  71 /  20  30  30  30
Jornada Range           97  66  92  66 /  20  30  30  40
Hatch                  101  67  95  68 /  10  20  30  40
Columbus                99  70  95  72 /  10  20  30  30
Orogrande               97  71  93  70 /  10  30  30  30
Mayhill                 83  54  75  54 /  40  40  50  40
Mescalero               85  53  78  54 /  30  40  40  50
Timberon                82  52  76  53 /  30  40  50  40
Winston                 88  56  83  57 /  30  20  40  30
Hillsboro               94  63  89  63 /  20  30  40  30
Spaceport               97  68  91  67 /  20  20  30  40
Lake Roberts            92  53  88  53 /  20  30  40  30
Hurley                  93  63  88  64 /  20  30  30  30
Cliff                   98  57  92  58 /  10  30  40  20
Mule Creek              97  55  92  55 /  20  20  30  30
Faywood                 94  63  90  64 /  20  30  30  40
Animas                  99  66  95  70 /  10  30  30  30
Hachita                 99  67  95  69 /  10  30  30  30
Antelope Wells          95  64  91  67 /  30  30  30  40
Cloverdale              92  63  89  66 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

01 Fausett



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