Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 272014
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
114 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BY MONDAY A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EAST AND SHOULD MANAGE TO
BRING TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AHEAD WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IT APPEARS AS IF OUR TREND OF MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE DRY NATURE OF
OUR AIR MASS. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS HAVE BEEN AS MUCH AS 35
DEGREES OR MORE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WE TRANSITION FORM A RIDGE
OVERHEAD TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER
LIGHT BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FRIDAY...WE WILL TRANSITION TO
DEEPER AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
THANKS TO LEE TROUGHING THAT WILL ENSUE WE CAN EXPECT A BIT OF AN
INCREASE IN WESTERLY SURFACE WIND SPEEDS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO GO A LONG WAY IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
GENERAL MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MUCH TOO LOW THAT PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THEREFORE I HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MEANWHILE THE LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS.
OF THE MOST RECENT OPERATIONAL OFFERINGS THE GFS IS MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF WHICH IS LEADING TO A FASTER PROGRESSION
OF WEATHER FEATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE
THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE DOES NOT COMPLETELY DISMISS THE GFS
SOLUTION...A GENERAL BLEND WITH A BIT OF EXTRA EMPHASIS ON THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN APPLIED. AS A RESULT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BACK DOOR
FRONT THAT WILL DROP DOWN THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER MONDAY TO PUSH INTO THE BORDERLAND. THIS WILL SERVE TO ONLY
HELP BRING TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL EJECT OUT
OVER THE AREA. EXACT TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS EARLY.
BUT WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SCANT MOST AREAS WILL SEE NOTHING MORE
THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. BASICALLY ONLY LOW END POPS HAVE
BEEN INSERTED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ZONES FROM
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHILE OTHER AREAS STAY
DRY AND MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z - 29/00Z...
P6SM SKC-FEW250 THRU PD. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT S TO SE UNDER 10KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO REGION WILL FLATTEN OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP OVER COMING DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES GOING
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. SATURDAY MAY SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER FAVORED WINDY LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
FALLING INTO THE TEENS STARTING SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOR ALL LOWLAND LOCATIONS WITH SOME 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH
PASSES OVER THE ROCKIES...BUT LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH
ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 36  71  40  74  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           32  67  35  70  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              33  70  35  72  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              33  71  37  72  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              30  59  36  53  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   32  70  36  71  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             33  67  37  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  32  70  33  72  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               32  70  33  72  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      37  70  41  73  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               30  68  33  72  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            31  71  34  74  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              34  68  35  67  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  29  70  35  74  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            33  70  35  72  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          37  68  38  71  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           28  68  30  70  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   30  70  33  72  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                32  68  36  71  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               33  69  37  72  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 31  66  36  63  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               34  66  34  61  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                29  63  32  59  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 30  65  32  63  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               35  67  37  68  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               27  70  30  69  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            29  65  35  64  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  30  68  33  66  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   25  70  36  70  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              21  70  30  69  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 34  66  35  66  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  31  71  33  74  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 27  70  31  73  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          28  70  37  73  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              32  71  35  71  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

LANEY/GRZYWACZ




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