Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 302100
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
300 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE BORDERLAND WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN FRIDAY AS A MINOR TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD INTO OR AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY DROPPING TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 8 DEGREES. THIS FRONT WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY WEST OF AREA
MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
LATER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON PUSHED BY ANOTHER STRONGER
PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON
SATURDAY AND WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE WINDY CATEGORY FOR
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS TO
PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY
THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDWEEK.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT MID/LONG TERM FORECAST
HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAY. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD GFS
AND CANADIAN MODELS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EURO FORMING AND
CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WRAPPING THE MOISTURE AND PROLONGING
THE PRECIP IN OUR AREA PAST MID WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUNS OF
THE THREE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION (WHICH BASED ON THE PRESENT UPPER WAVE
PATTERN SEEMS VERY REASONABLE) AND PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT BY
TUESDAY. THE EURO HAS GONE FROM A CLOSED LOW TO AN OPEN TROUGH BUT
REMAINS ABOUT 12-24 HOURS LATER ON TROPA VS THE GFS BUT AT THE
SAME TIMES NOW PUSHED THE PRECIP EASTWARD BY TUESDAY.

THE MID/HI CLOUDS FROM THE FIRST MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE (NOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT 21Z) WILL ARRIVE IN OUR AREA THIS EVENING
MOVING OVER A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH WESTWARD
TONIGHT DRIVEN BY A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.MODERATE
TO STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT COULD PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES LOCALLY ON WEST SLOPES AND
THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OF
THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MINOR TROUGH MOVES EAST. SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD VEER BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY IN THE BREEZY
CATEGORY (15-25) MPH AS THE NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE 12Z RUNS AND BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THEN
PUSHING IT EASTWARD BY TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL
MY MIDWEEK (AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES) WITH THIS STRONGER SYSTEM. THIS
LARGER TROUGH WILL ALSO INDUCE A FAIRLY GOOD LEE SURFACE TROUGH
IN EASTERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TOGETHER WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT (35 TO 45
KNOTS AT 700 MB) WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST INTO THE WINDY CATEGORY
SUNDAY. IT`S BEEN ABOUT TWO WEEKS SINCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SO SOME PATCHES OF BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY.


&&

AVIATION...VALID 30/00Z - 31/00Z...
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE 10 KNOT OUT OF THE
EAST AFTER 03Z TONIGHT OVER THE LOWLANDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE AT TCS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE GREAT PLANS WILL BRING A
SHIFT TO STEADIER EASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES COOLER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN SW NEW MEXICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A MORE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST. WINDS
MAY GUST ABOVE 20 MPH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN SW NEW MEXICO...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE COMMON ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS
WELL. INCREASING MOISTURE BOTH AT THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 52  73  54  78  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           50  71  53  76  58 /   0  10   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              47  72  51  77  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              47  71  52  76  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              31  54  34  58  36 /   0  10   0  10   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   46  67  51  73  54 /   0   0  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             45  68  47  72  49 /   0  20  10   0   0
DEMING                  45  71  48  77  50 /   0   0  10   0   0
LORDSBURG               44  71  47  76  49 /   0  10  10   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      51  73  53  78  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               44  68  47  74  53 /   0  10   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            51  73  53  80  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              52  71  54  75  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  46  73  48  79  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            47  72  52  79  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          49  71  52  77  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           35  71  41  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   43  71  46  77  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                50  72  52  78  52 /   0   0  10   0   0
OROGRANDE               49  71  53  77  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 35  61  39  64  42 /   0  10   0  10   0
MESCALERO               32  61  36  62  38 /   0  10   0  10   0
TIMBERON                33  60  36  63  41 /   0  10   0  10   0
WINSTON                 39  65  42  69  44 /   0  20  20  10   0
HILLSBORO               44  69  49  75  53 /   0   0  10   0   0
SPACEPORT               41  70  45  75  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            42  66  41  72  43 /   0  20  20  10   0
HURLEY                  44  70  46  73  48 /   0  20  10   0   0
CLIFF                   33  69  39  74  38 /   0  10  20  10   0
MULE CREEK              29  68  36  74  37 /   0  10  20  10   0
FAYWOOD                 47  70  49  77  51 /   0  20  10   0   0
ANIMAS                  46  71  49  77  49 /   0  10  10   0   0
HACHITA                 44  72  47  79  51 /   0  10  10   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  72  47  76  48 /   0  20  10   0   0
CLOVERDALE              48  73  49  75  52 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20/25 NOVLAN / HARDIMAN





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