Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 251225 CCB
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
525 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH HIGHER
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE BORDERLAND TODAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR MODERATION...WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL
BOTH DAYS. BY MONDAY NIGHT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO MID DAY TUESDAY. ONLY THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS COULD SEE ANY SNOW. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
TO NEAR THE BAJA WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN SPREADING MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN BEGIN COOLING DOWN
BACK BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THEN SNOW LEVELS
WILL FALL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 5000 FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR TWO WEATHER EVENTS STILL LOOK ON COURSE AS MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT...WITH ONE EXCEPTION FOR THE WEEKEND STORM WHICH I`LL
DISCUSS IN A BIT. IN THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF THE
CENTRAL BAJA CONTINUES TO SPREAD CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST HAS SET UP DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
ARIZONA TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND ON INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE HIGH
CLOUDS ARE PRETTY MUCH REACHING THIS ZONE AND THEN SHEARING EAST AND
WEST ALLOWING THE NORTHERN CWA TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUD FREE. THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES.
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON...MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
OF EL PASO. BY EVENING SOME SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER ALL AREAS.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SHORT WAVE AND MOISTURE BAND NORTH
OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...PRECIP
ENDING AND SKIES CLEARING SHORTLY AFTER. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 9000 FEET SO NOT EXPECTING ANY INHABITABLE PLACES TO SEE SNOW.
THE WARMTH ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN FOR RAIN/SNOW PACK
MELTING BUT BELIEVE SPEED OF SYSTEM WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN...AND SNOWPACK APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

AS THIS FIRST LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
CLOSE A LOW OFF WEST OF THE BAJA...FURTHER WEST THAN THE FIRST LOW.
THIS LOW WILL RE-ESTABLISH THE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOW UP INTO
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON A RELATIVELY WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH MOST OF THE WAY WEST ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME OVER RUNNING PRECIP BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON DESPITE NOT MUCH ENERGY ALOFT. THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA BY FRIDAY AND APPEARS LIKE IT`S READY TO LIFT
NORTHWARD...BUT MODELS ALL SHOWING THE LOW DEEPENING AND THEN
HEADING SOUTH BACK TO THE CENTRAL BAJA. THIS WILL ALLOW COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE CWA. PW`S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
REACH .7-.9 INCHES...WAY ABOVE NORMAL. WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING
HIGH AT 9000 FT OR ABOVE THE WEEKEND POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM
RAIN/SNOWPACK MELT LOOKS MUCH HIGHER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. BY SATURDAY SECOND BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES IN. THE ONE
MODEL CHANGE MENTIONED ABOVE NOW TAKES PLACE. THE LATEST GFS NOW
SHOWING MUCH LESS COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS FRONT. SO MUCH LESS THAT
NOW SNOW LOOKS DOUBTFUL FOR THE LOWLANDS. WITH THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND LENGTH OF THE EVENT...HEAVY SNOW STILL A REAL
POSSIBILITY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. GFS NOT REALLY LIFTING LOW OUT NORTH
OF THE CWA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 25/12Z-26/12Z...
VFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN200-250 AND SFC WINDS NE-NE
GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COR...
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SATURDAY MIN RH VALUES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AS TEMPS CLIMB
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. MEANWHILE VENT CATEGORIES WILL STAY
PRIMARILY IN THE POOR RANGE AS MIXING HEIGHTS WILL STAY DOWN AND
TRANSPORT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
WETTING PRECIP WILL OCCUR MONDAY AS A DISTURBANCE PULLS IN MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL COME IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND TOTAL PRECIP SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. AFTER A COUPLE OF
ADDITIONAL WARM AND DRY DAYS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM LOOKS POISED TO DELIVER WETTING PRECIP TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 58  34  62  43  64 /   0   0   0  30   0
SIERRA BLANCA           56  32  61  41  62 /   0   0   0  20   0
LAS CRUCES              57  31  61  41  62 /   0   0   0  30   0
ALAMOGORDO              56  31  63  39  61 /   0   0   0  20   0
CLOUDCROFT              46  21  49  33  51 /   0   0   0  30  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   55  30  60  40  61 /   0   0  10  20   0
SILVER CITY             57  30  59  40  60 /   0   0  20  30  10
DEMING                  57  31  60  40  61 /   0   0  20  30   0
LORDSBURG               57  32  61  40  62 /   0   0  20  40   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      58  34  62  42  63 /   0   0   0  30   0
DELL CITY               58  29  64  38  65 /   0   0   0  20   0
FORT HANCOCK            60  34  63  42  67 /   0   0   0  20   0
LOMA LINDA              56  32  62  41  63 /   0   0   0  20   0
FABENS                  58  32  62  42  64 /   0   0   0  30   0
SANTA TERESA            58  31  61  41  63 /   0   0   0  30   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          56  33  62  40  62 /   0   0   0  20   0
JORNADA RANGE           55  27  61  39  61 /   0   0   0  20   0
HATCH                   56  29  62  39  63 /   0   0  10  30   0
COLUMBUS                56  32  59  40  61 /   0   0  20  30   0
OROGRANDE               55  31  63  40  62 /   0   0   0  20   0
MAYHILL                 54  26  58  39  60 /   0   0   0  30  10
MESCALERO               50  23  55  35  56 /   0   0   0  30  10
TIMBERON                51  27  55  39  57 /   0   0   0  30  10
WINSTON                 54  26  58  37  60 /   0   0  20  30  10
HILLSBORO               56  30  61  41  63 /   0   0  10  30   0
SPACEPORT               55  28  62  39  61 /   0   0   0  20   0
LAKE ROBERTS            57  27  60  39  60 /   0   0  20  40  20
HURLEY                  56  29  60  39  61 /   0   0  20  30  10
CLIFF                   57  20  62  39  61 /   0   0  20  40  10
MULE CREEK              57  18  61  35  60 /   0   0  20  40  20
FAYWOOD                 56  31  62  40  62 /   0   0  20  30  10
ANIMAS                  58  31  62  40  64 /   0   0  30  40   0
HACHITA                 56  29  60  40  62 /   0   0  20  40   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          58  30  60  40  63 /   0   0  30  40   0
CLOVERDALE              59  31  58  40  65 /   0   0  30  40   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER











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