Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 262230
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
330 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO AND THE BOOTHEEL. WARM AND FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE 70-DEGREE
MARK IN A FEW AREAS. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...COOLING TEMPERATURES BY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
A SIGNIFICANT AND SLOW-MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPEARS SET TO BRING
WIDESPREAD LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW TO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH POPS/LOW-QPF FOR SW NEW MEXICO. LATE-
WEEK LOOKS LIKE A TOTAL MESS AS A SIGNIFICANT HIGH-AMPLITUDE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF LOWLAND RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF BOTH PRECIP
TYPES POSSIBLE.

FOR THE SHORT-TERM...UPPER LOW IS LOCATED WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A SHARP RIDGE CENTERED OVER COLORADO IN A
REX-BLOCK PATTERN. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
STREAMING NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO AND ARIZONA.
RADAR INDICATES INITIAL LIGHT BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH MID-
LEVEL VORT LOBE STRETCHING FROM BEYOND LAS VEGAS...THROUGH
TUCSON...JUST BARELY INTO THE NM BOOTHEEL...AND DOWN SOUTH OF
AHUMADA. PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT... GENERALLY JUST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS ARIZONA. SECOND AREA OF PRECIP IS EXPANDING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA INTO SONORA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STEEPENS
AND LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY VIRGA IN OUR CWA. BETTER
PRECIP COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AFTER 10PM AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. PW VALUES ARE ACTUALLY PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT...PEAKING AROUND 0.75 INCHES AT 06Z. GIVEN
THIS... I COULDN`T REALLY PULL POPS BACK TOO MUCH AROUND LC/EP
DESPITE THE NAM/GFS PRODUCING SCANT QPF IN THE AREA. VARIOUS
MESOSCALE MODELS (THOUGH NOT THE HRRR) HAVE A LITTLE BETTER QPF.
STILL...THE MAIN FOCUS BOTH FOR SHOWER COVERAGE AND QPF WILL BE IN
FAR SW NEW MEXICO INTO THE GILA REGION...WITH STORM TOTALS ENDING
UP IN THE 0.10 TO 0.20 INCH (LIQUID) RANGE. LI`S DROPPING TO AROUND
0C SUGGEST SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT LIGHTNING IS UNLIKELY.
WITH DEEP SUBTROPICAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
START OUT SAFELY ABOVE 10K FEET...DROPPING TO AROUND 9K IN THE
GILA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH-ELEVATION PASSES SUCH AS EMORY PASS AND
NM-15 OVER TADPOLE RIDGE COULD SEE A SLOPPY 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF
SNOWFALL BY MORNING.

DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO
NEVADA TOMORROW...ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT. EXPECT WARM
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. WE
WILL BE FLIRTING WITH 70 AT EL PASO WEDNESDAY ASSUMING THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THIN ENOUGH...OTHERWISE UPPER-60S.
ENJOY THE FAIR WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS...IT ALL COMES APART
STARTING ON THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH A FAIRLY
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE
USUAL BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WEST-FACING SLOPES. MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY
BE HELD BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH
MOUNTAINS COOLING BACK DOWN TO THE 40S. HOWEVER...A SHARP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF -130 (LONGITUDE) WILL TAP INTO
SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT SLOWLY HEADS EAST.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS MUCH OF AZ/NM AND NW
MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT...MOISTURE INCREASES...AND STEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT.

WITH WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...AND THE WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY
COLD...SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS PRECIP BREAKS OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT...AROUND 7K FEET IN THE SACRAMENTOS AND 9K IN THE
GILA REGION. I HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SNOW LEVELS FOR
THE GILA AS THEY MAY END UP LOWER SHOULD PRECIP BREAK OUT A LITTLE
LATER IN THE EVENING.

FRIDAY LOOKS QUITE WET AND THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN IN
ODDLY VERY-GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FACT FOR SOME TIME. GFS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE PW VALUES AROUND 0.9 INCHES WHICH IS CLOSE TO
THE RECORD FOR JANUARY CLIMO...AND REPRESENTS A +4 STANDARD
DEVIATION EVENT. MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY LEAD TO SOME
SNOW MELT CONCERNS IN THE GILA DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY SNOW
LEVELS END UP. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE DAYS AHEAD AS THE DETAILS
SMOOTH OUT.

HIGH POPS FOR FRIDAY ARE MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE ABOVE
PARAMETERS AND MODEL AGREEMENT. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST STORM TOTAL
QPF OF 1-2 INCHES FOR THE LOWLANDS BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND UP TO
2.5 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO VERY
HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS (AND LIKELY A VERY WET
SNOW RATIO GIVEN HIGH SNOW LEVELS).

PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MORE SHOWERY ON SATURDAY AS MAIN VORTMAX LIFTS
OUT BUT TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
BRIEFLY BREAKS DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING VORTMAX...BUT
THEN ANOTHER PUSH OF VERY COLD AIR COMES IN SATURDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE OUR UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWLAND SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL BE CHASING THE MOISTURE
OUT WITH NOT MUCH OVERLAP BETWEEN THE TWO.

GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS TRYING TO
BRING THE LOW AND SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BACK TO THE
NORTH...WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES THE LOW MORE TO THE EAST AND KEEPS
MOST OF THE MOISTURE EAST OF BIG BEND. THE LATTER SOLUTION IS MORE
TYPICAL AND FAVORED FOR NOW. THERE IS PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
IMPACT WEATHER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE ANYWAYS!

&&

.AVIATION...
VALID 27/00Z-28/00Z...
A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD AROUND AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GRAZE THE BORDERLAND WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. 00Z-06Z: SCT060 SCT-BKN120-140 BKN220-250
VCSH MAINLY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WINDS NW-NE 07KTS.
06Z-15Z: SCT-BKN040-060 SCT-BKN100 BKN-OVC200-250 WITH ISOLD 6SM
-SHRA BKN040 OVC080 MAINLY W OF DMN-TCS LINE. NE WIND 7KTS. AFT 21Z:
WNW WINDS 07KTS SCT050 SCT100 SCT250.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL SPREAD MORE CLOUDINESS OVER
THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ANY SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE VERY HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE PACIFIC TO THE
BAJA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING MORE CLOUDS AND ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT WITH OUT WITH HIGH
SNOW LEVELS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING
SNOW LEVELS DOWN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD
FALL AS LOW AS 4500 FEET. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS
FOR THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 44  68  41  70  41 /  30   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           44  67  42  70  40 /  20   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              41  64  37  68  39 /  30   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              40  64  36  67  37 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              33  49  28  50  29 /  20  10   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   41  64  39  65  38 /  20   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             41  65  36  66  37 /  60  20   0   0   0
DEMING                  41  65  35  69  37 /  50   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               40  66  36  68  38 /  60   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      45  69  44  70  43 /  30   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               41  68  35  70  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            44  70  43  73  41 /  20   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              44  64  42  65  42 /  20   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  43  67  40  71  39 /  30   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            42  66  39  69  39 /  30   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          43  65  40  69  40 /  30   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           39  63  30  66  35 /  30   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   40  67  34  70  37 /  30   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                42  64  38  69  40 /  50   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               42  65  38  68  40 /  20   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 39  62  37  63  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
MESCALERO               35  55  31  56  31 /  20  10   0   0   0
TIMBERON                40  58  37  59  36 /  20  10   0   0   0
WINSTON                 38  60  38  61  35 /  30  10   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               43  62  40  64  39 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               39  65  36  67  37 /  30   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            37  61  34  63  33 /  50  20   0   0   0
HURLEY                  39  63  36  65  36 /  60  10   0   0   0
CLIFF                   39  67  33  68  34 /  60  20   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              35  63  29  64  31 /  60  20   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 42  63  39  65  39 /  60  10   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  39  69  34  70  37 /  60   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 39  68  33  70  36 /  50   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          38  68  33  70  37 /  60   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              41  67  36  69  40 /  70   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN / 20-NOVLAN





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