Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 252108
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
308 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. STILL MOSTLY SUNNY FOR SUNDAY DESPITE A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
OFF AS A WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES IN. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
A BIT AS TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES. MONDAY WILL BE A
BIT BREEZY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH PASSES. HOWEVER THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY AND WARM. COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES TUESDAY AS A MILD AND
DRY COOL FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. LATE WEEK WARMS BACK ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DOMINATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE REGION IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE KICKER IS A
STRONG NW PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL OPEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AS A BROAD TROUGH. FOR OUR DEEP SOUTHWEST LOCALE IT
PROBABLY WON`T BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS. TOMORROW WE WILL
LIKELY SEE AN ADDITION OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHT INCREASES IN
WINDS WITH A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
UP A FEW MORE DEGREES AND TOP OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. MOST MODELS ARE DRY FOR THIS PASSAGE BUT THE GFS DOES
ATTEMPT TO PUT OUT SOME PCPN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. NOT ON BOARD SO
NO POPS IN THE FORECAST.

MONDAY A SECONDARY PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS AS ANOTHER DRY
FEATURE. THIS TIGHTENS THE GRADIENTS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH
TO OUR EAST. THUS POTENTIALLY BREEZY MID DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
A FEW MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED AND TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...BUT
STILL ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEAK BACKDOOR ARRIVES TUESDAY AND COOLS TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER
TO NORMAL...BUT NOT COOL ENOUGH TO GET THE REGION BELOW NORMALS ON
MAX OR MIN TEMPS. ALSO LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY.

LATE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND KEEPS A SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO
DRAW A BIT OF GULF MOISTURE IN UNDER A BUILDING SHARP HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE THE INTRODUCTION OF
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. THE GFS AGAIN IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
MODEL WITH SOME QPF OUTPUT OVER THE CWFA. WE`LL HOLD OFF ON THIS
DAY 7 PCPN FOR NOW AND JUST ADD THE CLOUDS.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 26/00Z - 27/00Z...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR PERIODS OF SCT300-330.  LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
16/18Z...BECOMING 230-25008-20KT THROUGH END OF PERIOD.

22-TRIPOLI


.FIRE WEATHER...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR OUR AREA. JET
STREAM PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER THE COUNTRY IS THE CLOSEST TO WHAT ONE
MIGHT CALL "NORMAL"...SEEN IN SOME TIME.  HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING
EAST OF THE REGION...WILL ALLOW UPPER LEVEL WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO RETURN.  THIS WILL CARRY PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS FROM TIME
TO TIME. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  LOOK FOR BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS BOTH DAYS ALSO AS A RESULT.  TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.  UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION BY WEEKS
END...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.

MIN RH SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S LOWLANDS...TO MIDDLE 30S
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  VALUES FALL A FEW PERCENT MONDAY.  BY MID
WEEK VALUES CLIMB BACK UP ROUGHLY 5-8 %. LOOK FOR GOOD TO EXCELLENT
VENT RATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH GOOD VENT RATES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.

22 - TRIPOLI

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 58  86  61  83  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           52  84  56  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              51  84  54  81  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              51  83  55  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              41  70  43  66  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   52  83  54  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             52  79  51  73  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  49  85  51  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               50  84  51  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      58  87  60  83  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               50  85  51  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            55  88  57  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              55  83  57  78  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  52  87  56  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            53  85  56  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          54  83  57  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           44  83  46  79  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   47  83  50  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                53  84  56  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               54  84  57  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 45  77  48  73  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               43  78  44  73  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                43  76  45  72  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 47  74  46  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               52  80  51  74  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               47  83  49  78  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            47  73  46  70  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  52  81  49  74  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   40  82  44  76  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              39  81  40  74  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 52  80  51  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  52  86  52  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 51  85  51  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          51  86  50  81  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              54  87  52  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/22





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