Area Forecast Discussion
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521
FXUS64 KEPZ 282050
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
250 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER IN A PROLONGED SERIES OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS...PRESENTLY
LOCATED OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE THE BORDERLAND WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL ROTATE DOWN ON ITS BACK
SIDE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST...AND MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF
GRANT...SIERRA AND NORTHERN OTERO COUNTIES. LIGHTER WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE BORDERLAND ON THE HEALS OF EASTERLY
WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIGHTER WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. OUR WEATHER MAY START TO GET A
BIT UNSETTLED AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LARGE PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT PRESENTLY LOCATED BY SIM
OVER NW ARIZONA CONTINUES ON TRACK PER FORECAST MODELS. ALL THREE
MODELS (NAM GFS EURO) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...IN FACT THE GFS AND
EURO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT 216 HOURS. AGAIN THE PRIMARY IMPACT
WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND THE ATTENDANT BLOWING DUST MAINLY INTO
THRUSDAY EVENING. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL GRADIENTS WERE STRONG
ENOUGH TOGETHER WITH THE HEATING TODAY GIVING DEEP MIXING TO
14KFT MSL. THUS WINDS CONTINUE IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE WITH SOME
ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH EXPECTED PARTICULARLY ALONG EAST
SLOPES. SATELLITE SHOWS WIND MAX DIGGING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF
THE LOW TO PUT MAX WINDS OVERHEAD SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...ITS
PACIFIC COOL FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE BORDERLAND FRIDAY MORNING
WITH ITS TROUGH AXIS FOLLOWING BY MIDDAY. WINDS SHOULD STILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STRONG AND TURN WESTERLY AND EASE OFF ON THE BLOWING DUST
SOMEWHAT. A SPOKE OF ENERGY IS FORECAST TO MOVE DOWN THE UPPER
LOW`S BACK SIDE FRIDAY AND MAY BRING SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE CWA MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF A
SVC- ALM LINE. TEMPS WILL COOL ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES AND RUN AROUND
5-8 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

BOTH GFS AND EURO MODELS SUGGEST A COOL MOIST AIR MASS CHANGE FROM
THE EAST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS TURNS WINDS EASTERLY AND TAPS GULF
MOISTURE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE SHOULD STAY IN THE DRIER  AIRMASS
WITH WESTERLY WINDS AT THIS TIME. THUS FOR AT LEAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...A SLIGHT RISK OF PCPN/STORMS WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY FOR OVER
HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. A NICE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST
OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINING LIGHTER WINDS AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

FINALLY IN THIS SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING SEQUENCE OF PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEMS...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO FORECAST A MASSIVE UA LOW INTO THEGREAT
BASIN BY NEXT FRIDAY. THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS TO MOVE IT
FARTHER NORTH...BUT ITS WAVELENGTH IS QUITE LARGE (LAS- AMA) SO IT
WILL HAVE WEATHER IMPLICATIONS (AT LEAST AT THIS TIME) FOR THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A QUICK LOOK AT THE H7 TEMPS FOR OUR AREA NEST
SATURDAY/SUNDAY SHOWED TEMPS FROM 0 TO -3C...SUGGESTING
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL SEE AS WE HAVE A WEEK
TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS.


&&

.AVIATION...29/00Z-30/00Z.
P6SM SKC-FEW120 THRU MUCH OF PD. SW WINDS OF 20-30G40KTS AND
AREAS OF 1-3SM BLDU WILL DECREASE TO BETWEEN 02Z-05Z TO AOB
12KTS EXCEPT ON ERN MTN SLOPES WHERE WINDS WILL STAY STRONG THRU
AT LEAST 09Z. W WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BETWEEN 15Z-18Z TO
15-25G35KTS WITH PATCHY AREAS OF 3-5SM BLDU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
STARTING TO DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO
KEEP CRITICAL CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME AREAS
OVER HUDSPETH AND SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTIES. AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY AND BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA MOUNTAINS AND AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER. WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S OVER THE LOWLANDS BY WEDNESDAY BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 56  75  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           53  74  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              50  70  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              50  72  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              36  48  34  54 /   0  10  20   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   48  68  44  75 /   0  10  20   0
SILVER CITY             41  60  40  70 /   0  10  10   0
DEMING                  46  70  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               43  67  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      57  74  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               52  75  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            54  77  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              52  69  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  56  76  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            52  73  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          54  70  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           46  70  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   46  71  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                48  72  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               52  71  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 42  58  39  63 /   0   0  20  10
MESCALERO               41  58  38  64 /   0  10  10  10
TIMBERON                40  57  39  63 /   0   0  20   0
WINSTON                 37  60  37  67 /   0  10  20   0
HILLSBORO               43  66  43  73 /   0  10   0   0
SPACEPORT               48  70  45  76 /   0   0  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            35  62  35  68 /   0  10  10   0
HURLEY                  41  62  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   38  66  37  75 /   0  10  10   0
MULE CREEK              36  63  35  73 /   0  10  10   0
FAYWOOD                 42  65  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  45  69  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 45  69  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  70  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              44  66  44  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ404-411-
     413.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ111>113.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ418-419.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ418-419.

&&

$$

20/26 NOVLAN / GRZYWACZ



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