Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 201122
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
521 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND ON SATURDAY...WILL DRIFT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT
BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE...WILL CREATE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND CONTINUE TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AHEAD. MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY FOR YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS. A BRIEF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCURSION FROM THE EAST ON
TUESDAY WILL FOR ONE MORE DAY GIVE THE MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH
HUDSPETH COUNTY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR
FINALLY MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND
PRODUCES A WINDY AND DUSTY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY NEW
LOW FORMING FURTHER NORTH. NEW LOW TO BE OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE RIDGE WILL
BRING AN OVERALL DRYING OUT...MOSTLY AT MID/HIGH LEVELS...WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE RIDGE. COMBINED WITH SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUED TODAY AND TOMORROW OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALSO INCLUDED
SIERRA COUNTY TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AS STEERING FLOW COULD
BRING A FEW STORMS OFF THE BLACK RANGE AND OUT OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH AS
YESTERDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW DECENT CAPE VALUES CONTINUING...AND WITH
WBZ HGTS AROUND 11K FT MSL...HAIL COULD BE A THREAT AGAIN. SAME
GENERAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING MONDAY.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL TURN LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO EAST-SOUTHEAST AND ADVECT
SOME MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN CWA. WILL ADD HUDSPETH COUNTY TO THE
CHANCE AREA. MODELS...ESPECIALLY NAM12...MOVE MOISTURE AS FAR WEST
AS THE RIO GRANDE. MODELS ALSO SHOW GOOD CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP
CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA AS THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ENTERS THE WESTERN
CWA. SO POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALL THE WAY TO ABOUT
DEMING. WILL NOT ADD ANY OF THIS AREA YET...SEE IF THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...NEXT UPPER TROUGH TRAVELS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW FINALLY SCOURS
OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT ALSO INDUCES LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND
STRONG SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. LOOKS LIKE WINDS COULD MAKE LOW
END ADVISORY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. GFS SHOWS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH INTO
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO NEXT SUNDAY FOR A SHOT OF RAIN. HOWEVER ECMWF
KEEPS FLOW MORE ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE WITH NO SIGN OF DEEP TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/12Z-21/12Z...
GENLY VFR WEATHER THRU THE PERIOD. THIS MORNING...SCT/BKN120 TIL ABT
15Z. DVLPG BTWN 18-03Z OVR THE MOUNTAINS...BKN120 BKN200 WITH ISOLD
5SM -TSRA...PSBLY DRIFTING OVER SIERRA COUNTY AFT 21Z. SURFACE WINDS
WEST 8-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. CB TOPS TO 370.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT BEHIND THE LOW...ALONG WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAIN ZONES. A FEW STORMS COULD DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 112. THE REST OF THE
WEEK ON THE WHOLE WILL WARM AND DRY...THE EXCEPTION BEING A
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND THE
MOUNTAINS AGAIN TUESDAY ALONG WITH ZONE 56. WITH INCREASING WEST
FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY
APPROACH OR EXCEED RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 79  58  84  61  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           78  52  81  50  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAS CRUCES              77  53  81  53  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              75  53  81  53  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              53  37  58  38  63 /  20  10  30   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   75  53  80  55  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             70  47  76  48  80 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  77  48  81  50  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               76  51  80  51  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      78  59  82  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               77  46  79  47  83 /   0   0  10   0  10
FORT HANCOCK            83  57  87  57  92 /   0   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              72  51  77  52  81 /   0   0   0   0  10
FABENS                  79  54  83  55  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            77  55  82  53  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          77  62  80  59  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           77  47  82  46  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   77  51  81  49  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                76  55  80  57  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               79  53  84  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 63  42  66  42  71 /  20  10  30   0  20
MESCALERO               65  36  69  37  73 /  20  10  30   0  10
TIMBERON                64  37  67  38  71 /  20   0  20   0  10
WINSTON                 69  45  75  46  79 /  20   0  10   0   0
HILLSBORO               72  53  78  56  82 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               74  49  79  50  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            68  40  74  44  78 /  20  10  20   0   0
HURLEY                  71  47  77  49  81 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   74  40  80  40  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              73  36  79  37  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 71  49  76  51  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  77  53  82  52  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 75  50  81  50  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          78  52  82  55  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              73  48  80  49  85 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER








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