Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 302128
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
328 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper high pressure over California and northern Arizona will
persist through Monday, with resultant flow keeping some moisture
and thunderstorms over the Borderland. By Tuesday and Wednesday
the upper high reforms over the southern Plains with the upper
flow increasing from the south. This will push tropical moisture
into the area and create scattered to numerous thunderstorms
across the Borderland by Tuesday. With the added moisture,
flooding potential will also increase. Temperatures will remain at
or slightly below normal through the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows upper high circulation just off the northern Baja
coast. Lower (500mb) high likely over southern California to
northern Arizona. This general pattern will continue through about
Monday. Old moisture plume will be redistributed more or less
evenly over the CWA next few days. Convection pattern should be
mostly scattered mountain thunderstorms and isolated lowland
storms. With PW`s around 1.0 to 1.2 inches, larger scale flooding
not likely, though heavy rain and local flooding could still
occur. Expect strong outflow winds to still be the main hazard in
this regime.

Tuesday and beyond...upper high begins reforming over the southern
Plains/lower Mississippi Valley and turns the flow more southerly.
This will push in new tropical moisture over much of the area. GFS
shows PW`s increasing to 1.3-1.4 inches, so in addition to higher
coverage of storms across the CWA, the risk of flooding also
increases. Temperatures should remain at or slightly below normal
through the period, with the increase in humidity and clouds.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 31/00Z-01/00Z.
General conditions: FEW-SCT050-080 SCT100 SCT-BKN250. Isold tstm 18Z-
06Z mainly ovr mtns and west of Rio Grande. Isold Strong
thunderstorms could affect the Gila Region will small hail and very
heavy rainfall...localized BKN040 OVC080 1-2MILES +TSRA.
Wnd VRB30G40KT. Winds mostly SSE 7-12kts til 06z then gnly lgt
vrbl then becoming more SSW aft 18Z.

 &&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Subtropical moisture will increase over then next few days with
better thunderstorm chances especially mountains and western fire
weather zones. Some areas in the Gila could see over an inch of
rain between today and Monday. Moisture plume will gradually spread
eastward with increasing shower and storm chances over most of the
fire weather zones next week. Temps may decrease a little and RH
values will increase some overall giving better overnight recoveries

Winds will remain light through the period, generally E to SE in the
lowlands.  In the higher elevations, winds will be more terrain-
driven during the overnight and morning hours, then largely
influenced by thunderstorm outflow in the afternoons/evenings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 74  96  75  96 /  10  10  20  10
Sierra Blanca           69  93  71  94 /  10  20  20  20
Las Cruces              69  95  70  95 /  10  20  20  20
Alamogordo              70  95  71  94 /  20  40  20  30
Cloudcroft              48  74  47  74 /  30  40  20  50
Truth or Consequences   70  93  71  93 /  20  30  30  30
Silver City             63  87  61  86 /  40  40  40  60
Deming                  70  95  70  94 /  10  20  30  30
Lordsburg               66  91  68  91 /  40  40  40  40
West El Paso Metro      74  96  75  96 /  10  10  20  20
Dell City               69  96  70  95 /  10  20  20  10
Fort Hancock            73  97  74  97 /  10  20  20  10
Loma Linda              67  89  66  90 /  10  10  20  20
Fabens                  73  97  74  96 /  10  20  20  20
Santa Teresa            72  95  72  95 /  10  10  20  20
White Sands HQ          71  93  72  94 /  10  20  20  20
Jornada Range           67  96  68  95 /  20  20  20  20
Hatch                   69  96  69  96 /  20  30  20  20
Columbus                70  95  71  94 /  10  20  30  20
Orogrande               71  94  72  95 /  10  10  20  10
Mayhill                 53  81  52  81 /  20  40  20  50
Mescalero               53  83  51  82 /  30  40  20  50
Timberon                52  80  49  80 /  30  40  20  40
Winston                 58  85  57  87 /  40  40  40  70
Hillsboro               65  92  64  93 /  30  40  40  50
Spaceport               68  93  68  94 /  20  30  20  20
Lake Roberts            55  87  54  89 /  50  50  50  70
Hurley                  63  87  62  88 /  30  40  40  50
Cliff                   60  90  61  90 /  40  50  40  40
Mule Creek              56  89  55  88 /  60  50  50  60
Faywood                 64  89  63  90 /  20  40  40  50
Animas                  68  91  69  91 /  40  40  40  30
Hachita                 68  92  68  91 /  30  30  30  30
Antelope Wells          66  89  68  89 /  30  30  30  40
Cloverdale              63  83  62  83 /  40  40  30  50

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

HEFNER/NOVLAN



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