Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 022006
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
206 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF LAS CRUCES WITH ISOLATED STORMS TO THE
EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE PLUME
OF MOISTURE STRADDLES THE REGION. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES AND LOW
WATER CROSSINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COUPLE OF MOSTLY DRY DAYS...THE MOISTURE PLUME IS
BEGINNINGTO SLOWLY SHIFT BACK OVER THE STATE. MUCH OF TONIGHT`S
LOCAL STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO AND AREAS WEST OF LAS CRUCES TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND AGAIN TOMORROW. FOR AREAS TO THE EAST MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
RISE MORE SLOWLY BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
FOR TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW.

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA REGION
AND PARTS OF THE BOOT HEEL. LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES...
ARROYOS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS MAY OCCUR. RAIN AMOUNTS TO THE
EAST WILL BE MORE SPOTTY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN.

ON FRIDAY...THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN PARTLY UNDER THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...WHICH IS WEDGED BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND A LARGE PACIFIC LOW ON THE WEST COAST.
SMALL IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PLUME WILL HELP GENERATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST IN THE
GILA REGION AND NEARBY SURROUNDING AREAS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

DURING THE WEEKEND THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH
AND TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS CHANGE WILL PULL THE
MOISTURE PLUME MORE TO THE EAST AND MORE DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE
AND INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE BY THE TIME SO RAIN AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE AS
HIGH. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODELS ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.

FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE
REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL PUMP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED STATE
WIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL HOVER NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES...GIVE OR TAKE A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/00Z-04/00Z.
P6SM SCT-BKN080-100 BKN-OVC150-200 THRU PD. SCT 1-3SM TSRA BKN040
WEST OF DIVIDE AND AREA MTNS...ISOLD EAST OF DIVIDE. WIND GUSTS TO 45KTS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY W AOB 12KTS BUT
WILL BE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE E TO NE ALONG AND E OF KALM-KELP
LINE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY
EAST OF DIVIDE GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND WHERE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEEN RUNNING IN THE TEENS. WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL COME GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
GILA REGION INTO THE BOOTHEEL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
OVER THE COMING WEEK IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
RISING INTO THE 20S AND 30S LOWLANDS AND 40S TO 50S MOUNTAINS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 72  93  69  89 /  20  20  20  10
SIERRA BLANCA           67  92  65  90 /  20  10  20  10
LAS CRUCES              67  90  64  84 /  20  20  30  20
ALAMOGORDO              67  91  65  88 /  20  20  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              51  69  49  66 /  30  40  30  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  86  63  81 /  30  40  30  40
SILVER CITY             61  80  57  76 /  30  50  40  50
DEMING                  66  87  62  85 /  30  40  30  40
LORDSBURG               65  85  62  83 /  30  50  40  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      73  93  69  90 /  20  20  20  10
DELL CITY               68  95  69  93 /  10  10  20  10
FORT HANCOCK            71  95  69  92 /  20  10  20  10
LOMA LINDA              69  89  65  86 /  20  10  20  10
FABENS                  70  94  67  91 /  20  10  20  10
SANTA TERESA            71  91  67  87 /  20  20  30  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          69  90  66  86 /  20  20  20  20
JORNADA RANGE           67  89  65  85 /  30  20  30  20
HATCH                   66  89  63  85 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                68  89  63  86 /  30  30  30  40
OROGRANDE               70  91  67  87 /  20  20  20  10
MAYHILL                 57  77  55  74 /  30  40  30  40
MESCALERO               56  79  55  76 /  30  40  30  40
TIMBERON                58  77  56  74 /  30  30  20  30
WINSTON                 58  76  55  72 /  40  50  40  50
HILLSBORO               63  86  59  81 /  30  40  40  40
SPACEPORT               67  87  63  83 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            54  78  51  73 /  40  50  40  50
HURLEY                  63  82  58  79 /  30  40  40  40
CLIFF                   61  83  58  79 /  30  50  40  50
MULE CREEK              57  81  54  75 /  30  50  40  50
FAYWOOD                 63  84  58  79 /  30  40  40  40
ANIMAS                  65  84  62  82 /  30  50  40  40
HACHITA                 65  86  61  84 /  30  50  40  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          63  82  60  81 /  30  50  50  50
CLOVERDALE              62  78  58  76 /  40  50  50  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ


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