Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 212222
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
322 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE AREA...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. BY
MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND 30S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THANKSGIVING...WITH FAIR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW OVER SW
ARIZONA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA
BY MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S OVER
MOST OF ARIZONA...IT IS LIKELY ALL VIRGA EXCEPT IN NORTHERN
SONORA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ARE ALSO IN THE
20S...AND THE SAME GOES FOR NORTHWESTERN CHIHUAHUA. SO IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT WE CAN ADVECT IN ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES IN. HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND INTO WEST TEXAS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAILING OVERNIGHT AREA-WIDE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ROLL INTO THE BIG BEND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN
ITS WAKE...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3 TO 5
DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A WEAK TRAILING COLD
FRONT. MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
700 MB WINDS RUNNING 40 TO 45 KNOTS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY IN PARTS OF THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS... ESPECIALLY EXPOSED RIDGE LINE LOCATIONS
SUCH AS SUNSPOT. WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY... AND MAY EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES.

THE COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY IN ON MONDAY...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY STUCK IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS AND 30S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING
ALOFT...AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL NOT RECOVERY QUICKLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE
TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL BY FRIDAY. SO THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BRING FAIR SKIES AND
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER-60S IN THE LOWLANDS
TO THE 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/00Z-23/00Z...
VFR THRU THE PD. INCREASING LAYERS FROM FL180 TO FL300. DVLPG AFT
03Z...MOSTLY SOUTH OF LSB-ALM LINE...OCNL BKN090 ISOLD -SHRA. SFC
WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST
12-17 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.VALID 22/00Z-23/00Z...VFR THRU THE
PD. INCREASING LAYERS FROM FL180 TO FL300. DVLPG AFT 03Z...MOSTLY
SOUTH OF LSB-ALM LINE...OCNL BKN090 ISOLD -SHRA. SFC WINDS
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST 12-17 KTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT...SPREADING
CLOUDS TO THE ENTIRE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MOSTLY SOUTH OF LORDSBURG TO ALAMOGORDO
LINE. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VERY
LITTLE CLOUDS. ALSO BOTH SATURDAY/SUNDAY AFTERNOONS WILL BECOME BREEZY
TO WINDY AS MODERATE MID LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE APPROACHED SUNDAY BUT RH`S SHOULD REMAIN A BIT
TOO HIGH TO MEET THE CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK AHEAD WILL
REMAIN DRY BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN. MIN RH`S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 18-23% FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 25-35% ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 45  66  44  62  35 /  20   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           44  64  37  62  32 /  20  10   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              38  64  37  61  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              37  66  38  59  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              30  44  33  40  20 /  10   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   34  64  36  59  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             34  58  33  53  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  35  66  34  61  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               33  62  31  59  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      47  64  44  61  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               39  67  37  66  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            44  67  40  66  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              42  60  39  56  32 /  20   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  43  67  40  65  31 /  20   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            42  65  40  61  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          43  65  44  60  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           32  65  31  60  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   34  66  34  61  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                41  64  40  60  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               39  65  38  59  30 /  10   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 34  54  37  47  25 /  10   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               31  54  34  46  23 /  10   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                33  55  33  49  25 /  10   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 30  58  33  50  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               38  62  37  57  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               30  66  32  61  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            30  57  31  52  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  33  60  33  56  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   29  63  27  60  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              21  62  21  56  17 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 36  60  36  55  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  36  65  34  62  28 /  10   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 35  66  33  63  27 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          38  65  36  64  29 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              38  63  36  62  30 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN / 17-HEFNER





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