Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 300907
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
307 AM MDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Westerly winds will bring warmer dry weather to New Mexico and
west Texas today. However a low pressure system with a cold front
will move slowly across the Borderland Friday through the
weekend. This storm will generate windy conditions with blowing
dust on Friday followed by cooler temperatures Saturday and
Sunday. In addition there will be slight chances for lowland rain
showers and high mountain snows this weekend. Westerly winds will
produce seasonably warm dry weather for most of next week with
passing disturbances causing occasionally breezy to windy
conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Low amplitude upper ridge will move across the southern Rockies
today with westerly winds in the lower and mid levels. This
pattern will produce warmer dry weather today. Winds will be
breezy to even marginally windy as mixing heights rise.

Deep upper low will meanwhile be moving slowly into Nevada this
afternoon before drifting east southeast into northeast Arizona
and northwest New Mexico Friday morning and afternoon. Approach of
system plus downslope winds will induce surface cyclogenesis over
eastern New Mexico with low and mid level gradient thus
tightening as 90 mid level speed max extends across the CWA. Warm
dry nature of air mass will result in dry lapse rates from the
surface to almost 500 mb much of the region by late Friday
afternoon. Thus windy conditions will occur tomorrow. Wind speeds
should exceed advisory criteria over most or all of the CWA with
possible warnings required for south central and southeast zones.
Blowing dust/low visibility also likely for much of the lower
elevations.

Upper low will continue to drift slowly east across northern New
Mexico Friday night and Saturday morning with an attendant cold
front and trailing upper trough axis swinging across New
Mexico/west Texas Friday afternoon through early Saturday.
Gradients subsequently relax with winds diminishing Friday night.
Cool air advection behind the front will also reduce Saturday and
Sunday high temperatures to around 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
Given the continental flow trajectories moisture transport will be
minimal but cold air aloft and upward motion induced by the upper
low and embedded waves may produce isolated rains lower
elevations and high mountain snows with rain and snow amounts
generally light.

Zonal/deep westerly winds will result in warmer dry weather on
Monday. However the next upper wave will move across the central
and southern Rockies Monday night and Tuesday with another lee
cyclone developing to the northeast. Thus breezy to windy
conditions possible Monday and Tuesday. Passing short wave ridge
aloft expected to sustain dry weather and seasonably warm
temperatures but with lighter winds next Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 30/12z-31/12z.
VFR conditions with no ceilings below 10,000 feet agl. Surface
winds gusting around 35 kt between 20z and 02z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy to marginally windy westerly flow will bring warmer dry
weather to New Mexico and west Texas today with near Red Flag
conditions expected some areas this afternoon. A low pressure
system with a cold front will move slowly across the Borderland
Friday through the weekend. This storm will generate windy
conditions with blowing dust on Friday resulting in critical fire
weather and Red Flag conditions tomorrow. Winds diminishing with
cooler below normal temperatures occurring Saturday and Sunday. In
addition there will be slight chances for lowland rain showers
and high mountain snows this weekend. Westerly winds will produce
seasonably warm dry weather for most of next week with passing
disturbances causing occasionally breezy to windy conditions. Thus
near Red Flag conditions may develop over some areas Monday and
Tuesday afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 82  58  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           78  55  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              79  52  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              76  54  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              56  41  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   80  54  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             73  48  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  81  51  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               80  49  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      81  60  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               81  48  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            83  55  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              74  56  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  82  55  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            81  55  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          79  57  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           79  48  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   81  50  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                83  56  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               80  55  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 69  46  61  31 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               66  44  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                63  42  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 74  41  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               79  49  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               79  50  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            72  35  58  25 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  75  46  61  31 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   79  42  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              75  46  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 77  50  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  83  52  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 82  50  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          82  52  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              77  52  67  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for NMZ110>113.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

05 Rogash


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