Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 281042
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
442 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Less thunderstorm activity in the next few days as an upper level
high brings drier air into the region. Except for the mountains
areas where isolated showers and thunderstorms will occur.
By the beginnings of next week a moist flow from the southeast
will be reestablished increasing the chances for thunderstorms
area wide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level high pressure system remains in the Great Basin
area. This ridge is interrupting our monsoon moisture flow into
the southwest desert. Despite the ridge`s negative effect on our
thunderstorms we still have a decent amount of moisture trapped at
the surface. This moisture will combine with the afternoon heating and
orographic lifting to help fire off thunderstorms in area
mountains. A few isolated storms may slip into the lowlands.
Temperatures will be above normal today and will keep in the upper
nineties for the lowlands. Moisture will start to slip into the
region as the upper level high weakens during the weekend.

Towards the beginning of next week the southeast moisture flow
will be reestablished as the high pressure shifts to the east.
This will increase our chances of showers and thunderstorms area
wide. Greater coverage will be found west of the Rio Grande and in
the mountain zones. Temperatures will cool down to near normal
values, as cloud cover increases.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid 28/12Z-29/12Z
VFR conditions will generally prevail this afternoon/evening, but
with isolated thunderstorms mainly in the mountains. However a few
thunderstorms may develop on the lowlands in the afternoon. Expect
less thunderstorm activity tomorrow as drier air aloft moves in.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated thunderstorms will slowly move into the lower elevations
this afternoon. Areas east of the Rio Grande, including the
Sacramento Mountains may see storms later in the afternoon/evening
than usual due to cloud cover that was hanging around much of the
day. Expect overnight RH recovery to continue to be good to
excellent (best in the Gila). While drier air will begin filtering
in from the north today, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
remain a threat, especially in the higher terrain.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 98  74  98  75 /  20   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           93  69  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
Las Cruces              96  69  96  70 /  20   0   0  10
Alamogordo              98  69  95  70 /  10   0  10  20
Cloudcroft              75  54  75  54 /  20  20  20  40
Truth or Consequences   97  70  97  71 /  10   0  20  20
Silver City             93  65  92  65 /  20  10  40  20
Deming                  98  69  98  70 /  10   0  10  20
Lordsburg               97  69  98  69 /  10   0  30  30
West El Paso Metro      97  74  97  75 /  20   0   0  10
Dell City               96  67  97  69 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            98  73  98  74 /  10   0  10  10
Loma Linda              91  67  92  69 /  20   0   0   0
Fabens                  98  72  98  73 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            97  73  97  73 /  20   0   0  10
White Sands HQ          95  71  95  73 /  10   0   0  20
Jornada Range           98  67  97  68 /  10   0   0  20
Hatch                   99  70  98  70 /  10   0  10  20
Columbus                98  71  97  72 /  20   0   0  10
Orogrande               96  71  95  72 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                 83  56  82  56 /  20  10  20  30
Mescalero               86  56  84  57 /  10  10  20  30
Timberon                82  54  81  55 /  30  20  30  30
Winston                 91  60  90  60 /  10  10  40  30
Hillsboro               97  65  96  67 /  20  10  30  30
Spaceport               97  69  96  69 /  10   0  10  20
Lake Roberts            94  56  93  57 /  20  10  50  30
Hurley                  93  64  93  65 /  10   0  30  20
Cliff                   98  63  97  63 /  10  10  40  30
Mule Creek              96  60  93  60 /  20  20  50  40
Faywood                 95  65  94  66 /  10   0  30  20
Animas                  99  69  98  69 /  20   0  10  20
Hachita                 98  69  97  69 /  10   0   0  20
Antelope Wells          96  68  95  68 /  20   0  10  20
Cloverdale              92  65  90  64 /  20   0  20  40

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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