Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 251010
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
410 AM MDT Thu May 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong winds and patchy blowing dust return to the area today and
again on Friday with very warm temperatures. But the weekend will
be calmer with a slightly cooler temperatures. On Memorial Day
and continuing through most of the coming week we will see a
chance for thunderstorms each day with afternoon high temperatures
running a few degrees below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Wind and dust will be the name of the game for today and Friday. A
decent lee side trough forming over eastern Colorado and eastern New
Mexico will tighten up our surface wind gradients today. Also
today we will see very warm temperature which will help us reach
up and grab some of the strong winds aloft that will be moving
across the area. These two weather features will give us very
strong surface winds and critical fire weather conditions today
and Friday. A wind advisory (25 to 35 mph) and a red flag warning
are in effect for today. The one inhibiting factor today will be
cloud cover, if the cirrus clouds stay nice and thick it could
keep a lid on our winds a bit. Despite the high clouds I do think
we will see advisory levels winds and patchy areas of blowing
dust. Friday looks very similar, but we may see slightly lower
wind speeds. We will for sure see another day of critical fire
weather conditions on Friday, but we may stay just below wind
advisory level wind speeds.

For Saturday and Sunday we are looking at some calmer and slightly
cooler weather, things are looking pretty nice for the start of
the Memorial Day weekend. Then for Monday a large surface high
will be dropping into the Midwest and the circulation around that
high will push moisture into the region. We will see rain chances
return to our forecast on Monday and lasting through at least
Thursday. Like yesterday`s model runs, the GFS is still the most
aggressive with our rain chances while the ECMWF is less
aggressive but has come closer to the GFS solution. And for what
it is worth the ECMWF does keep our rain chances going past the
end of next week while the GFS moves all of our moisture off to
the east.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 25/12Z-26/12Z
Winds and dust are back in the forecast. We will see our surface
winds increase as we head through the morning. By the afternoon
we will see surface winds from the west of 23 to 33 knots with
gusts to 45 knots. Patchy areas of blowing dust will reduce
visibilities to MVFR conditions and in a few isolated spots to IFR
conditions. Best chances for dust will be in and around Deming
and El Paso. The winds will slow some during the overnight hours
but pick up again on Friday. We may occasionally see a high broken
ceiling of BKN250.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
We will see critical fire weather conditions today and again
tomorrow. For the last several days, min RH`s have been running in
the single digits and today and Friday will be more of the same.
But unlike the last couple of days, today and tomorrow will see
very strong surface winds. Winds today will be from the west at 25
to 35 mph and tomorrow the winds will be from the southwest at, at
least 20 to 30 mph. Therefore Red Flag Conditions will occur
today and will likely occur again tomorrow for the entire area.

For the weekend we will continue to see very dry conditions, but
winds will be much less of a problem. Then late on Sunday and into
Monday moisture and rain chances will return to the forecast and
we will see at least a slight chance for rain across the entire
area Monday through Thursday. So if we can get through today and
Friday, we will see improving fire weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 97  71  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           94  70  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              94  64  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              93  65  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              70  50  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   92  61  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             84  54  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  92  60  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               93  59  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      96  71  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               97  69  94  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            98  72  95  67 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              91  66  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  97  71  94  66 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            95  68  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          93  68  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           94  62  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   95  61  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                94  63  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               94  67  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 81  56  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               80  55  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                79  54  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 83  50  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               89  57  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               93  60  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            83  48  78  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  86  53  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   89  54  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              86  54  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 87  56  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  92  60  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 92  59  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          91  59  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              87  57  83  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     NMZ110>113.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for NMZ110>113.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     NMZ402>417.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     TXZ055-056.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for TXZ055-056.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

Brice


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