Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 062102
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
202 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT THERE
WILL BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE
BORDERLAND WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH
CIRCULATION ALOFT DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
CALIFORNIA AND CUT OFF LOW OVER BAJA. CONSEQUENTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS OCCURRING OVER THE CWA WITH TRANSPORT OF WARMER DRY AIR.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST IS SUSTAINING
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WITH INFLOW OF COOLER BUT ALSO DRY AIR.
THUS THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE DRY SUNNY WEATHER WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD DRY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL PHASE WITH NORTHERLY
BRANCH OF THE JET AND MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS DURING THIS TIME. POCKET OF ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT WITH
500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20 C WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
CAUSING WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES.
THIS FACTOR PLUS LIFTING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL GENERATE
CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT
LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S/30S F AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
MOSTLY LESS THAN .5 INCH SO GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

WHILE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT
SEVERAL OTHER UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SPARSE ASSOCIATED LIFT AND INSTABILITY MAY STILL INDUCE MAINLY
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER WEAK FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PUSH DRIER MILD AIR INTO THE
AREA WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 07/00Z-08/00Z...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IN ARIZONA WILL MOVE EAST AND START TO AFFECT
THE AREA MAINLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE  SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
00Z-06Z: FEW050 SCT150 SCT250 WINDS SE 7-12KTS. 06Z-18Z: SCT050
SCT-BKN140 BKN200-250 WINDS NE 3-8KTS. AFT 18Z: SCT050
SCT-BKN100-120 BKN200. WINDS NE-SE 7-12KTS. WEST OF CNTNDL DVD:
SCT-BKN040-060 BK080-120 BKN-OVC200-250...ISOLD -SHRA -TS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNNY...DRY AND STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY AS VERY DRY AIR AT
THE SURFACE REMAINS IN PLACE BEHIND YESTERDAY`S COLD FRONT. GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF MINOR EXCEPTIONS ARE IN LINE. A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BRING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GILA REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSE A DRY
LIGHTNING THREAT. ANOTHER MINOR DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SOME RAIN LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL RUN FROM 15% TO 25% ALL AREAS EXCEPT 25% TO 35%
SACRAMENTOS ABOVE 7500 FEET BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 37  66  42  69  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           30  61  37  66  40 /   0   0  10  10  10
LAS CRUCES              33  65  37  67  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              31  64  36  66  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              27  47  32  49  30 /   0   0  10  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   35  64  38  66  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             30  63  35  63  36 /   0  10  10   0  20
DEMING                  33  67  36  69  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               33  69  35  67  37 /   0   0  10   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      38  65  43  69  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               30  62  36  67  37 /   0   0   0  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            33  67  41  70  42 /   0   0  10   0  10
LOMA LINDA              32  60  38  63  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
FABENS                  34  66  40  70  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            35  65  38  68  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          33  63  39  68  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           28  65  32  67  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   33  66  37  69  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                36  66  39  68  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               33  64  39  67  40 /   0   0   0   0  10
MAYHILL                 26  52  32  57  31 /   0   0  10  20  20
MESCALERO               27  55  32  56  31 /   0   0  10  20  20
TIMBERON                29  53  35  56  33 /   0   0  10  20  20
WINSTON                 29  59  35  60  33 /   0  10  10  10  20
HILLSBORO               33  63  38  64  38 /   0   0  10   0  10
SPACEPORT               31  66  35  67  35 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            27  62  33  62  31 /   0  10  10  10  20
HURLEY                  29  63  34  65  35 /   0   0  10   0   0
CLIFF                   29  71  33  69  34 /   0   0  10   0  10
MULE CREEK              27  68  29  65  30 /   0   0  10   0  10
FAYWOOD                 32  63  37  65  37 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANIMAS                  33  70  36  69  39 /   0   0  10   0   0
HACHITA                 30  68  34  69  37 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          31  69  34  68  37 /   0   0  10   0   0
CLOVERDALE              34  67  37  66  38 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN



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