Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 111119
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
419 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively quiet weather week ahead as upper ridge of high
pressure persists over the western U.S. through Thursday. A small
upper low has moved through the ridge and has pushed some clouds
into the area. These clouds will last into Tuesday before
dissipating. The low could also produce a few showers over the New
Mexico Bootheel this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be
just above normal through Thursday. The upper flow turns more
westerly after Thursday, with a weak Pacific front moving through
Saturday. This will push a few clouds into the area but nothing
more. Temperatures will continue a bit above normal through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Continued benign weather across the CWA through the period. Our
old friend the upper ridge, continues to persist over the western
U.S., with cutoff low shearing through the base of the ridge. This
low has spread considerable mid/high clouds to the area yesterday
and should continue today and into Tuesday morning. Models
continue to show some QPF either over the NM Bootheel or just
south. Low POPs look warranted, as PWs increase to around one-half
inch in that area this afternoon while dewpoints try to reach 30
degrees. Some weak instability continues just south of the
Bootheel through this evening. Clouds should dissipate overnight,
as most of the tropical tap shears off aloft, while drier air
moves south on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain just above normal
through Friday.

The upper low continues to drop slowly south over the Baja through
Sunday. Meanwhile next Pacific trough moves onshore of the west
coast Friday, reaching the CWA Saturday with just some higher
clouds. Decent lee side troughing with this system will increase
west winds on Saturday and warm temperatures several more degrees.
The Pacific trough then phases in (according to the GFS) with the
Baja upper low and moves east of the area later Sunday. ECMWF
shows timing of Pacific trough much like the GFS. However it does
not phase the Baja low in with the trough; instead it holds the
low stationary until Wednesday, when it drifts across the area.
ECMWF would suggest some precip out of all this, while the GFS
remains dry. Beyond forecast period at this time, so hope the
models can converge on solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 11/12Z-12/12Z...
VFR conditions to continue thru the period, with SCT150 BKN-
OVC250. By this afternoon, slight chance of BKN100 -SHRA over the
NM Bootheel. Winds remaining less than 10 kts through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and mild conditions will continue through most of this new week.
An upper level low pressure system is spreading considerable mid and
high level cloudiness over our area. By this afternoon a few
showers are possible across the NM Bootheel. Dry west/northwest
flow aloft will finish out the week. Temperatures will remain just
above normal for all of this week, while min RHs will remain at
15-25% through the week.

Mixing heights will remain fairly low along with weak transport
winds that will keep vent rate categories mostly in the fair to
poor range the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 61  35  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           59  32  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              60  31  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              61  30  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              53  22  50  22 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   60  31  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             59  28  57  29 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  62  30  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               62  30  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      60  35  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               62  32  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            62  34  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              56  32  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  62  33  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            60  31  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          60  33  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           61  20  60  22 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   62  24  61  24 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                60  31  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               60  32  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 56  25  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               56  25  56  26 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                54  25  54  26 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 57  17  56  22 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               59  28  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               61  19  60  20 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            60  22  60  24 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  59  26  59  26 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   63  18  61  20 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              61  17  61  21 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 60  29  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  62  29  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 61  30  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          61  31  60  29 /  10  10   0   0
Cloverdale              60  31  60  31 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17 Hefner



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