Area Forecast Discussion
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680
FXUS64 KEPZ 240948
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
348 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry southwest flow will continue over the area with mostly sunny
skies, seasonally warm temperatures with breezy to windy
afternoons. Breezy southwest winds will occur this afternoon with
Windy conditions expected on Wednesday. Temperatures will be a few
degrees cooler on Thursday and Friday with slightly lower wind
speeds anticipated. Dry and warm conditions are expected for the
Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Little change in the local weather pattern is expected as a
persistent southwest flow aloft remains in place over the region.
Skies should remain generally clear, and temperatures will remain
near seasonal averages which trends warmer this time of year. West
to southwest surface winds will increase into the breezy category
of 15 to 25 mph this afternoon when stronger winds aloft mix down
to the surface.

Winds will be stronger on Wednesday as an upper level system
approaches the state on a track that will pass just north of the
local area. This approaching system will tighten the surface
pressure gradient and induce the formation of surface trough to
the east. That help increase wind speeds into the windy category
range of 20 to 30 mph. Winds will be locally stronger along the
east slopes of area mountains with gust up to 50 mph possible.

Windy conditions will continue on Thursday as the system passes
through the northern portions of the state. Winds will become more
oriented from the west by the afternoon. Temperatures will be a
few degrees cooler. Chances for precip from this system remain
poor with little help from atmospheric surges of moisture from the
south or east.

For Friday and the Memorial Weekend, conditions will continue to
be dry and temperatures remain near seasonal averages. The flow
pattern will return to a dry southwest orientation that is likely
to persist into the first part of next week. Winds will be
somewhat lighter on Friday and Saturday but could become more
breezy in the afternoon for Sunday and next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...24/12Z-25/12Z...
VFR conditions through the valid period. Generally SKC. West to
southwest winds increasing to 15 to 25 knots aft 17Z. Winds will
diminish aft 03Z, except at KEPZ where stronger west winds will
continue aft 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Persistent southwest flow will keep conditions very dry with near
normal warm temperatures. Surface winds will steadily increase the
next few days. Southwest to west winds will approach critical
thresholds today will likely exceed red flag criteria thresholds
for Wednesday afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for
Wednesday. Relative humidity values will be between 8 and 12
percent in the afternoon with modest overnight recoveries for
most areas for the remainder of the week. Winds will be somewhat
lower on Thursday elevated fire danger conditions. Lighter winds
are expected Friday and the the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 90  64  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           89  61  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              86  55  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              87  58  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              65  44  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   84  53  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             78  46  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  86  53  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               86  50  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      89  64  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               90  56  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            93  62  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              84  59  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  91  61  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            89  60  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          86  62  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           86  53  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   88  53  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                88  57  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               87  58  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 76  49  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               76  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                73  44  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 77  40  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               82  50  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               85  52  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            78  39  78  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  80  46  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   82  44  82  41 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              80  39  80  36 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 81  48  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  87  52  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 88  53  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          86  52  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              81  49  80  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for NMZ110>113.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

99/04/04



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