Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 182236
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
336 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE SCATTERED LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY WE WILL DRY OUT BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE WEEKEND LOOKS NICE WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WE CAN EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A MIX OF MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND COLD LOWLAND RAINS TO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE GILA REGION
LOOKS LIKE IT IS THE BEST PLACE FOR SOME SNOW SO I WILL CONTINUE
THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THAT LOCATION. THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS WILL BE CLOSE...BUT THE LIMITED TIME THE SNOW WILL FALL
WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH THEY GET. FOR NOW I`M THINKING THEY WILL GET
SOMETHING LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WHICH IS JUST BELOW THE
CRITERIA FOR A SNOW ADVISORY. I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
SPOTS IN THE SACS GET A LITTLE MORE SNOW...BUT RIGHT NOW I`M NOT
EXPECTING WIDE SPREAD 3 TO 5 INCH SNOWFALL TOTALS UP THERE. AS I
MENTIONED THE WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NARROW. BASICALLY
FROM NOW TILL A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...A LITTLE LATER FOR THE SACS.

AFTER TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS MUCH WEAKER AND HAS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
IT WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO GIVE US SOME INCREASED CLOUDS AND THAT IS
ABOUT IT. FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL WATCH AS A LARGE RIDGE
BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL PUT US UNDER A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALFOT. THIS FLOW IS USUALLY DRY AND ALLOWS FOR A SLOW WARMING
TREND EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT BY CHRISTMAS DAY WE WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SORRY EVERYONE...NO WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR
US IN THE LOWLANDS THIS YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/00Z- 20/00Z...
THRU 10Z...P6SM SCT030-040 BKN050-070 WITH SCT 5SM -TSRA BKN025 OVER
THE LOWLANDS WITH 1-3SM -SN BKN010-020 IN THE MTS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE W UNDER 12KTS SHIFTING MORE TO THE N TO NW BY 10Z. AFT
10Z...SKC-SCT050 WITH LT N TO NW WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH QUIETER PERIOD WEATHER WISE COMING UP FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATION OF AREA MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A FEW DAYS OF
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS BY MONDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PERCENT
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 37  54  31  55  33 /  40   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           36  53  31  55  32 /  40   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              35  53  28  54  30 /  40   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              32  52  27  52  29 /  40   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              23  34  19  34  23 /  60   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   32  50  28  50  30 /  40   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             32  44  28  46  30 /  50   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  32  52  26  53  28 /  40   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               32  51  26  52  29 /  30   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      36  53  34  53  36 /  40   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               32  54  27  56  28 /  40   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            37  55  30  57  32 /  40   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              37  50  32  48  34 /  40   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  34  54  29  56  30 /  40   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            36  53  27  54  29 /  40   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          36  53  31  53  34 /  40   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           35  52  22  52  23 /  40   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   34  53  26  53  28 /  40   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                34  53  29  53  32 /  30   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               33  52  28  52  31 /  40   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 29  43  25  44  29 /  50   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               25  42  21  42  25 /  50   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                27  42  24  42  26 /  50   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 26  42  24  45  27 /  50   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               33  47  28  48  31 /  50   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               31  51  24  52  25 /  40   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            26  43  24  46  27 /  50   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  31  46  26  48  29 /  40   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   34  50  22  52  25 /  50   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              33  46  19  48  21 /  30   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 33  46  29  47  31 /  40   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  31  53  26  55  30 /  30   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 32  53  23  54  26 /  30   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          31  54  24  55  26 /  30   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              30  50  27  54  29 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NMZ402.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE/GRZYWACZ




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