Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 030917
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
317 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS TODAY WHILE AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE
AREA. AS A RESULT THE BORDERLAND WILL SEE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN BRING HOT MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY
INCREASE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND AS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FLOWS BACK INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGES STILL SHOWING MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS DESPITE AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE AXIS
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AN INCH OVER THE WEST TO 1.4 INCHES EAST WITH MUCAPES
FROM AROUND 600 TO 1200 J/KG. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL PROVIDE WEAK BUT PROLONGED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MODELS HINT AT A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH AREAS OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND SURFACE
HEATING WILL AGAIN GENERATE CONVECTION MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AND OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS WHERE
UPSLOPE WILL EXIST.

BY TUESDAY UPPER HIGH WILL BE LOCATED AROUND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
WITH RESULTANT CIRCULATION CAUSING A MORE NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW
WITH WARM DRIER CONTINENTAL FLOW ALOFT. CONSEQUENTLY AIR MASS
BECOMES MORE STABLE AND MOISTURE DIMINISHES AS PRECIPITABLE  WATER
FALLS BELOW AN INCH. SO EXPECT HOT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT REFORMS OVER SOUTHERN
PLAINS AREA AS UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST
COAST. THIS PATTERN TRANSITION WILL CAUSE FLOW TRAJECTORIES TO
ALIGN MORE FAVORABLY FOR TRANSPORT OF DEEPER MOISTURE AGAIN FROM
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND/OR GULF OF MEXICO. SO BY NEXT SATURDAY
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE ABOVE AN INCH ALL LOCATIONS WITH AIR
MASS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE. ACCORDINGLY WILL INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/12Z-04/12Z.
ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM 20Z TO 06Z. SEVERAL STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 KT. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN 060-120 AND WIND SPEEDS
MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 KT OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS TODAY WHILE AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE
AREA. AS A RESULT THE BORDERLAND WILL SEE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
BRING HOT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN AREAS THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND AS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
FLOWS BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 97  73 100  75 /  30  30   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           95  69  98  71 /  40  30  10  10
LAS CRUCES              94  67  98  70 /  20  30   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              95  69 100  70 /  30  30   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              73  55  78  56 /  50  30  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   92  68  98  69 /  20  20   0   0
SILVER CITY             85  62  92  64 /  30  20   0   0
DEMING                  94  68 100  70 /  20  20   0   0
LORDSBURG               93  67  99  67 /  10  20   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      98  72 101  74 /  30  30   0   0
DELL CITY               97  70 102  72 /  40  30  10   0
FORT HANCOCK            98  70 102  72 /  40  30   0   0
LOMA LINDA              92  69  96  71 /  30  30   0   0
FABENS                  98  70 102  72 /  30  30   0   0
SANTA TERESA            96  70 100  72 /  30  30   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          94  70 100  72 /  30  30   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           94  67  99  70 /  20  30   0   0
HATCH                   95  67 101  70 /  10  20   0   0
COLUMBUS                93  68  99  70 /  20  20   0   0
OROGRANDE               96  70  99  72 /  30  30   0   0
MAYHILL                 82  59  87  61 /  50  30  10  10
MESCALERO               82  57  87  59 /  50  30  10   0
TIMBERON                82  59  87  62 /  40  30  10  10
WINSTON                 83  59  90  61 /  30  30   0   0
HILLSBORO               91  64  97  67 /  30  20   0   0
SPACEPORT               93  67  98  70 /  10  30   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            85  57  91  59 /  40  20  10   0
HURLEY                  88  63  94  65 /  30  20   0   0
CLIFF                   91  64  97  65 /  30  20   0   0
MULE CREEK              90  61  96  61 /  30  20   0   0
FAYWOOD                 89  64  95  66 /  30  20   0   0
ANIMAS                  92  67  98  67 /  30  20   0   0
HACHITA                 93  67  99  68 /  20  20   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          89  65  94  66 /  30  20   0   0
CLOVERDALE              87  64  92  65 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH


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