Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 011921
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
321 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF
OUR AREA DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
50S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG AWAITED QUIET...DRY PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TRACKING...HAS SETTLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THIS DRY PERIOD WILL BE
CRUCIAL TO DRYING OUR LOCAL SOILS AFTER RECORD SETTING JUNE RAINS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL IN THE MID
70S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. ONLY TWEAK TO FRIDAY POPS WAS TO SHAVE A BIT
OFF NORTHERN EXTENT GIVEN LATEST TRENDS...AND JUST TO MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH. A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON THE HEELS OF THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE TO ALLOW FOR
MAINTENANCE OF A BROAD WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH LIKELY APPROACHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR
HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PASSAGE OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK ANTICYCLONE
TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED
QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RAMP UP A BIT
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS...BUT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TRAJECTORIES WILL NOT BE OVERLY EFFICIENT IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF INTEREST FOR THE LONG TERM STILL APPEARS TO BE
THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL WAVE
TRACKS ALONG NORTHERN TIER CONUS/SOUTHERN CANADA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD LOOK TO BE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE...BUT CONTINUED
TIMING UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANYTHING MORE THAN A LOW TO MID CHANCE
POP TSRA MENTION FOR ANY 12 HOUR PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY
EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTATION OF SEVERAL
DRY DAYS BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
IMPROVEMENT IN RIVER FLOODING STATUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH AN UPSWING IN HUMIDITY ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT EXPECT THOSE LOWER CIGS TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF BOTH KSBN AND KFWA. WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NW TO NNE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...BENTLEY


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