Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 051838
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
238 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL USHER IN A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
BY FRIDAY MORNING. WARMER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH HIGHS FRIDAY REACHING INTO THE 70S.
ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND THEN IS FORCED SOUTH AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHERN STATES.

CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST SPOTS. A FEW DRAINAGE AREAS
COULD SEE UPPER 30S...BUT DURATION OF ANY COLDER POCKETS SHOULD BE
SHORT ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE/ELIMINATE ANY FROST CONCERN.

THE COOLER NW FLOW WILL QUICK BECOME SW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND
EAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH 70 OR HIGHER WITH EVEN THE
LAKESHORE AREAS SEEING WARMER READINGS THAN TODAY. ONLY MAKING MINOR
CHANGES AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVERACHIEVING ON TEMPERATURES (MUCH
WARMER THAN DEPICTED). MET REMAINS SUBDUED IN THE TEMPS...LIKELY
STILL SUFFERING A COLD BIAS. MAV LOOKING CLOSER TO WHAT MAY
UNFOLD...SO WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 2. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL
ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CONTINUED UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH
MID WEEK.

PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...BUT STILL ENOUGH LIFT AND DYNAMICS
TO BRING HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS TO THE AREA WITH SOUTHEAST SECTIONS
TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE GIVEN TIMING OF COLD FRONT WITH PEAK HEATING.
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION FOR THUNDER. SEVERE THREAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
WITH DECENT SHEAR AND DYNAMICS BUT CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP TEMPS IN
CHECK AND MINIMIZE INSTABILITY. LARGE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
NW TO SE WITH 70S MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT NW AREAS WITH EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL RETREAT BACK INTO CANADA AND ALLOW
FOR ONLY A BRIEF COOL DOWN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE 60S.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK NORTH AS LARGE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SW STATES SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND ATTEMPTS TO EJECT NORTHEAST
AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO ITS PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES STAYING FAIRLY EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL DEPENDING ON
EXACT LOCATION OF MEANDERING BOUNDARY. WITH RETURN OF SOME GULF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP WITH THUNDER MENTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY DURING BEST CHANCE TIME FRAME. WHILE
FORECAST IS RIDDLED WITH CHANCE POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A
RAINOUT WITH AT LEAST BRIEF DRY PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE OVERNIGHT AND COULD SEE
SOME GROUND FOG BY DAYBREAK IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LEWIS


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