Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIWX 292244
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
644 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 608 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN GIVING US THE PRECIPITATION TODAY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THEN THE REST
OF THE NIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 30S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO
AROUND 60 IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE AREA HAS AFFORDED SIGNIFICANT
EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS
ALLOWED FOR SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN...THUS ADDED SLEET
MENTION THROUGH 5PM. EXPECT LOW LEVEL SATURATION TO PREVENT ANY
FURTHER REFREEZING AFTER THIS TIME. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA BETWEEN 9PM AND MIDNIGHT WITH A MOSTLY DRY PASSAGE EXPECTED.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH 02/03Z GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE
FRONTAL PRECIP TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE THE BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT EXISTS WITH THE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL WAVE.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY. BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A
DEGREE OR TWO...BUT WAS RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH WARMER GIVEN THE LATE
ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA...AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN BY THE AFTERNOON.



&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SURE BUT STEADY FLW ALOFT TRANSITION XPC THIS PD AS HGT RISES ACRS
THE ERN US BUILD AFT MON AND IN CONCERT W/ROCKIES MEAN TROUGH DVPMNT.

HWVR DETAILS ASSOCD/W PERTURBED NRN STREAM FLW ALG THE US/CANADA
BORDER REMAIN FICKLE AS SERIES OF SW TROUGHS GENERALLY AMPLIFY EWD
EVERY FEW DAYS. WEAK MSTR STARVED SYS FOLLOWS LT MON NIGHT AND
GENERALLY DISCOUNTED BUT WILL KEEP W/LOW CHC MENTION NE HALF. MORE
IMPRESSIVE SW FOLLOWS AGAIN THU W/SLWR EWD FNTL PROGRESSION SEEN IN
MOST GUIDANCE SANS TYPICALLY TOO PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION.
BEST MODEL CONCENSUS IMPLIED CHC FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IS THU AFTN.
OTRWS TRAILING WAVY FNTL BNDRY EXTENDING FM PARENT SW DRIVING
THROUGH SE CANADA LOOKS TO FOSTER SOME POTENTIAL FOR OVERRUNNING
THROUGH FRI PENDING HOW AND WHERE REMAINING ROCKIES ENERGY ALOFT
EJECTS EWD. INTERMODEL TRENDS SUGGEST BNDRY HANGS FURTHER SOUTH
WHICH SHUNTS MSTR FOCUS SOUTH ALG THE OH RVR AND SUGGESTS LTL NEED
FOR POPS HERE ESP NORTH HALF. WILL GO ALONG W/REDUCED ALL BLEND
SOLUTION ATTM.

TEMPS BY AND LARGE MODERATING TWD NORMAL TUE ON W/60S PSBL THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
LIGHT RAIN ON THE DOORSTOP OF KSBN AND WILL PUSH THROUGH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS AND VSBY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR AS THE RAIN
MOVES THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS...BUT A FEW MINUTES OF MFVR
CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AFTER THE
RAIN MOVES THROUGH AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. A STRATUS
DECK BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3KFT WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN
00Z AND 01Z. THIS STRATUS DECK SHOULD SCATTER OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
AND WILL SLOWLY WANE ONCE WINDS SWITCH TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...BENTLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.