Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 310310
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1110 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1109 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

High pressure settling into the area with a dry airmass has left
us with a decent dew point spread heading into tonight. This may
hinder fog development outside of the deep river valleys. The
forecast still looks good to go as the patchy fog still seems
reasonable.

UPDATE Issued at 953 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

Issued an update to upload the latest observations. With high
pressure in control, clear and dry conditions will persist. The
current forecast is good to go.

UPDATE Issued at 653 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

With high pressure mainly in control, and despite a few showers in
the far southeast, conditions will be dry and pleasant across the
area this evening. Updated the grids with the most current
observations. The rest of the forecast remains on track. The only
concern tonight will be fog development.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 345 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

A weak cold front continues to move southeast and is slowly
moving into VA and East TN. A few sprinkles or very light showers
are likely falling from some of the convection, but thunderstorms
have dissipated or moved into SW VA or East TN. Meanwhile a ridge
of high pressure is building into the region with a weak
corresponding shortwave ridging.

This evening through tonight, the sfc and mid level ridge will
build into the region and cu should dissipate leading to
clearing. This may set the stage for some valley fog and fog to
develop where rain occurred earlier today. Drier air continues to
mix down as well as advect in from the north, and lows tonight
should average a few degrees cooler than this morning, especially
in valley locations.

For Tuesday into Tuesday night, ridging should continue to
dominate although a mid level trough and cold front will begin to
approach late in the period and mid and high level moisture should
begin to increase late as well. Fog should lift and dissipate
within one to two hours after sunrise and cu is expected to again
develop on Tuesday, but showers and thunderstorms should be
confined to closer to the crest of the Appalachians and points
further southeast where the lingering mid level disturbance from
Bonnie meanders over the Carolinas. Skies should become mostly
clear again on Tuesday night and valley fog should form again in
the river valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

Moisture return on the backside of the high shifting east will bring
slightly better moisture into the area by Wednesday. While no
triggers for convection will likely be present, some localized
convergence around the higher terrain in southeast Kentucky could
spark a few very isolated showers or thunderstorms by Wednesday
afternoon. Most areas will likely stay dry into Wednesday night.

A better chance of rain will arrive on Thursday as a shortwave
trough pushes across the Ohio river valley. Moisture will continue
to pool ahead of an approaching cold front and generate better
coverage of showers and storms from Thursday into Thursday night.
Have continued to trend pops upward during these periods.  While
plenty of instability will be present...shear will be somewhat weak.
However, a few strong storms couldn`t be ruled out Thursday
afternoon and evening.  Cold front will then work eastward late
Thursday night into Friday with rain chances continuing along and
just ahead of the boundary. Instability will wane by Thursday night
and may have a tough time returning on Friday with the increased
cloud cover and ongoing shower activity. However, will bring back a
small chance of thunder in the south by late Friday morning into the
early afternoon, before everything slides on southward.  The start
of the weekend is looking nice with lesser humidity and dry weather
to start on Saturday.  Rain chances may return Sunday, but models
are in less agreement on the details as we head into Sunday.  GFS
wants to bring a significant shortwave trough across the area while
the ECMWF is much less amplified.  Rain chances will come back
Sunday, but its still very much uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

Despite a few showers lingering into the evening in the far east,
the only concern tonight will be fog development. With high
pressure moving into the area and clearing skies tonight, fog will
develop in the valleys, especially the river valleys. With a lack
of an influx of moisture, would expect MVFR visibility developing
at the TAF sites. Fog will dissipate just after 14z tomorrow as
warmer temperatures mix out the fog. Winds will remain light
through the period.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



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