Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 040603
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
103 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

We continue to see the atmosphere moisten across the TN Valley but
we struggle to see that across eastern KY. This should happen
over time as we see a more top down approach, but the BL winds
remain out of the east which will make this process more
difficult. Therefore continue to blend in the consshort which
progresses the POPs in slower. That as the suite of CAMs show
precip making it into the Lake Cumberland region by 6z to 7z at
best. Other edits were more minor for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 652 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

Starting to moisten up across the TN Valley this hour and showers
will continue to move NE toward the region overnight. This as
moisture streams north and the moisture begin to lower into the
lower levels overnight. Based on downstream obs precip is being
seen in areas with around a 7 to 8 kft deck at best. Given the
slower progression lowered POPs in the first few hours as better
moisture remains to our SW. Otherwise more minor updates to
latest obs and trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 301 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

The short term period will continue to feature a cold and wet
weather pattern, with mostly light rain expected from this evening
through the day on Monday. The latest model soundings have trended
a bit warmer in the lower levels, so only a few isolated instances
of rain/snow mix are expected late tonight into early Monday. An
area of low pressure coming out of the southern Plains will be our
weather maker through Sunday night. Temperatures during the period
will quite cool, with overnight lows in the 30s and highs on
Sunday in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

The extended period looks to be quite active throughout, with a
series of weather systems expected to bring multiple round of
precipitation to eastern Kentucky through the end of the week. The
first area of low pressure is expected to move out of the southern
Plains/western Gulf of Mexico region Monday and Monday night. This
system will bring light to moderate rainfall to the area through
Tuesday, with the highest chance for rain coming from late Monday
night through early Tuesday afternoon. Between three quarters and
one inch of rain is expected across the area through Wednesday
morning, with locally higher amounts possible. We should
experience a brief lull in the active weather during the day on
Wednesday, as our second area of low pressure exits the region. A
third system, however, is on track to move across the area
Wednesday night through Thursday night. This system will bring
quite a bit of cold air into the area on its eastward trek. In
fact, we are expecting minor snowfall accumulations across most
of the area from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning.
Periods of rain/snow mix will then be possible Thursday and
Thursday night, as colder air filters into the region behind the
departing area of low pressure.

Temperatures in the extended will vary greatly. Highs on Monday
and Wednesday should top out mostly in the 40s, with max values in
the 50s on tap for Tuesday, as southerly flow sets up with an
area of low pressure that will be moving across the area that day
and night. After that, however, temperatures will take sharp nose
dive, as a cold air mass settles over the region to end out the
week. Highs on Thursday will top out in the mid to upper 30s for
most locations, with a few spots along the Tennessee border
perhaps breaking 40. The cold air will become firmly established
on Friday, with highs that day struggling to reach or break 30
degrees across the area. Lows Thursday night and Friday night will
likely fall into the teens across the area, as cold westerly flow
sets up across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 103 AM EST SUN DEC 4 2016

Very tricky forecast overnight and into the day tomorrow. A
mid/upper level wave is expected to impact the TAF sites through
the forecast period, however surface high pressure remains at the
surface with a layer of dry air in place in the low levels. IR
SAT does show high clouds penetrating eastern KY as the system
continues to approach, and should continue to stream across the
region overnight. These clouds are expected to thicken and lower,
but based on latest trends, this may occur a bit later than
originally expected. As of the 6Z TAF issuance, VFR conditions
are expected to persist through 12Z at the southern sites KSME and
KLOZ, but will quickly deteriorate after this point to MVFR
throughout the day as moisture finally overcomes the llvl dry
layer, and rain chances set in. This will occur a couple hours
later at KJKL and KSJS and closer to 18Z at KSYM. Llvl clouds will
linger throughout the upcoming night as well, possibly lowering
further to IFR, even as precip chances begin to taper off.
Overall, winds should remain light and variable throughout the
period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW



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