Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 010630 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TOUCHED UP THE GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT MAINLY TO
INCORPORATE THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE TO THE T/TD GRIDS ALONG
WITH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS HAVE SET THE STAGE FOR A RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT OVERNIGHT AND FOG FORMATION IN OUR VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES
OF WATER. THE ONLY TWEAKS THAT HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE GRIDS WERE
THE INGEST OF OBS DATA TO ESTABLISH TRENDS. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE
FORECAST IS BEING LEFT AS IS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE FORECAST SO FAR THIS EVENING IS RIGHT ON TRACK. CLEAR
SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LATE NIGHT FOG ARE STILL ON TAP...ALONG
WITH A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY HAS TURNED INTO A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. DEW POINTS
TODAY ARE AN IMPRESSIVE 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER 60S ON THE
RIDGES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
ANTICIPATED TOWARDS DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING SO CAN EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN SOME CLOUD COVER TOMORROW EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
FALLS APART AND PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A TROUGH TROUGH OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION. AT THAT POINT...A FEW SHORTWAVES
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
FEW SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BE WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS TO START THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER FURTHER NORTH
MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT THAT
POINT...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE ALSO CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY REGION AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY AND EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY SHOULD MEANDER
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND OPEN UP A BIT
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE OR TWO
ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TO END THE WEEKEND AND ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE WORKING
AROUND THE RIDGE SHOULD APPROACH THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENTERING SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WORKING
INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA THE CORRESPONDING SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD TRACK INTO QUEBEC WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
PERIOD...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY AROUND
MIDWEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A SFC WAVE OR WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE FRONTAL
ZONE ITSELF COULD ALSO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...THE EXPECTED SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE
REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO AT LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE MCS OR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA MAY BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY
AS THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT
FROM MONDAY TO POSSIBLY AS LATE AS FRIDAY. THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE THAT ENTERS SW CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL PLAY
A KEY ROLE IN THE DURATION OF THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WITH THE
MODELS RELATIVELY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY WITH
THE SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN AND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO NEAR
AT MIDWEEK...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR GREATEST FROM WED INTO
THU.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
SLIPS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT SME
LATE THIS NIGHT AS THEIR DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY THE
SMALLEST. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG TO THAT
SITE WHILE LEAVING THE REST CLEAN. OUTSIDE OF THE FORMAL TAF
SITES...PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TOWARDS
DAWN...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE FOR A BRIEF TIME. ANY FOG WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE AIRPORTS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF


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