Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 290253 AAA
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1053 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Just some leftover stratiform precipitation is skirting northern
Fleming County currently. This will dissipate in the next hour,
with dry weather and a gradual thinning of the clouds expected
through the rest of the night. Consequently, would expect some
areas of dense fog to form, especially across locations that saw
significant rainfall from earlier. Have also nudged the lows down
a bit where current readings are already in the upper 60s to lower
70s. Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 815 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

The storm scale has dominated once again through early this
evening, with multiple clusters and their associated outflow
boundaries having moved through the majority of eastern Kentucky.
Mainly some more stratiform-like precipitation is remaining across
portions of the area, but even this dwindling fairly quickly.
Expect most of this to be gone in the next 1 to 2 hours, as we
lose instability. Have mainly freshened up the grids to depict
radar and satellite trends. Will assess forecast lows and fog
potential a bit later this evening. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across eastern
Kentucky this afternoon and evening now that the cap has broken
and peak heating is occurring. These storms are all either moving
very slowly or not at all, so locally heavy rainfall will be a
concern for locations that do experience a thunderstorm. The
showers and storms should taper off quickly once the sun begins to
go down. Eastern Kentucky should be rain free by around 4Z tonight.
The dry weather should continue through late Monday morning. More
showers and storms will likely fire up tomorrow afternoon, as a
hot, moist, and unstable air mass will still be in place across
the region. The lack of steering winds aloft will once again
contribute to slow storm movement tomorrow, or lack thereof, so
locally heavy rainfall could once again be a concern. We will see
more fog across eastern Kentucky as well. The fog should mainly be
confined to river valleys and location near bodies of water.
Locations that experience rainfall this afternoon and evening
could also see fog overnight, depending on how much clearing
occurs.

The hot weather will persist into the start of the new work week,
with highs on Monday around 90 expected. Overnight lows the next
two nights will again be warm and uncomfortable, with minimum
readings in the upper 60s to around 70 expected. Winds will be
generally light and variable outside of any thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 425 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

The period will begin with an upper level ridge centered from the
Mid MS Valley east to the Appalachians. Another ridge is progged
to be centered over the Rockies at that time with a closed low
moving across Northern Ontario and a shortwave trough trailing
down into the western Great Lakes. Meanwhile a tropical system is
expected to be off or near the North Carolina Coast at that time
with another Tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico.

From Tuesday into Wednesday, the upper low initially over
northern Ontario should move into Quebec and toward the Maritimes
and merge with a large upper low over the Maritimes. This and the
trailing shortwave trough should begin to carve out a trough into
the Northeast CONUS while the axis of Upper level ridging should
extend north through the Plains by Wed evening. The trough
developing to the northeast and sfc high pressure building toward
the northern Great Lakes should send a cold front south through
the Great Lakes with the boundary approaching the OH Valley by Wed
evening. A warm and moist airmass will be in place on Tuesday and
even into Wednesday, but little if any mid level triggers. The cap
could be broken in a few locations mainly near the VA border each
day.

Wed night into Thursday, the shortwave trough axis moving by and
the cold front dropping south through the OH Valley could bring
some convection to the area late on Wed night or Thursday.
Meanwhile the upper level ridge axis will move east and near the
MS Valley by Thursday evening. Also, the tropical system that
should meander a bit in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico should get
begin to get drawn north by the trough. However, this system and
associated moisture should be suppressed well south and east of
the area.

Thursday night into Saturday, the upper level ridge should build
east toward the lower MS Valley and southeastern states, but should
begin to flatten a bit late. Sfc high pressure should build into
the area from the Great Lakes and settle across the Northeast late
in the period. The flattening should occur as a shortwave moves
from the west coast across the Rockies and into central Canada and
another trough enters the Western US. The ridge should remain the
dominant feature into Sunday as well. A cooler and drier airmass
will be ushered into the region behind the front, but this airmass
will begin to moderate again by the end of the period. Dry weather
is expected from Thursday evening and Thursday night through
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Convection will wane across the area early this evening, with
mainly some showers in the vicinity of a few airports seen through
01 or 02z. VFR conditions will set in, with IFR or worse fog
likely forming in locations that have seen significant rainfall.
This includes SME, and have brought visibilities and ceilings down
below airport minimums overnight. The fog will burn off by 13z,
with just some scattered cumulus to contend with Monday afternoon.
Any developing convection looks to be more isolated on Monday, so
have left out any mention of showers or thunderstorms. Generally
light and variable winds will prevail through the period.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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