Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 301957
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRETTY AGREEMENT AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST. THE CONSENSUS...WITH SOME MINOR TIMING AND PRECIP
COVERAGE DIFFERENCES OF COURSE...IS FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED COVERAGE
THIS EVENING...AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE PARENT LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT PULL OFF TO THE
EAST. THE ISSUE OF CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.8 TO OVER 2
INCHES AT TIMES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAX
READINGS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE US WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AT THE SURFACE...THE
BERMUDA HIGH IS IN PLACE WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVER WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM MOIST AIR TO BE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WITH THE WARM
FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY MOSTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TO THE
EAST AND IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THEN FINALLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THIS TIME...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE VERY ZONAL ACROSS THE US WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
STAY ON PLACE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM MOIST
FLOW WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
UP THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND
AS THE MODELS STAYED IN BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE AVIATION FORECAST WAS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BEGIN FORMING AND MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BECOME EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO
AFFECT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ALL DAY ON
SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOG SHOULD BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM
DUE TO THE PERSISTENT RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT OF FOG.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...AR





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