Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 281146

National Weather Service Jackson KY
746 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Issued at 746 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016

Will continue to see patchy fog, mainly in river valleys, for the
next hour or two before mixing ensues. Clearing skies will then
take place with temperatures warming quickly underneath patchy


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016

An upper low, responsible for yesterday`s cloud cover and tease of
rainfall, will continue to push east across Lake Ontario and New
England. An upper high across the Trans-Pecos region of southwest
Texas will sprawl its influence up through the Great Lakes,
resulting in stout warm air advection for much of the country,
including eastern Kentucky. Northern stream energy from the
Pacific into the Great Basin as well as across lower Canada into
the northern United States will keep this attendant ridging from
amplifying further. However, after seeing temperatures rebound
well into the 70s today with a few locations near the Tennessee
state line perhaps making a run at the 80 degree mark, record
warmth looks on tap for Saturday.

Satellite imagery continues to suggest enough breaks in the
departing stratus and incoming cirrus to suggest patchy fog will be
possible by daybreak this morning. This will quickly mix out by mid
morning with clearing skies and temperatures warming well above
normal this afternoon. Surface ridging sliding east of the
Commonwealth tonight will allow for an appreciable ridge valley
temperature split underneath clear skies, with valleys dipping into
the upper 40s as ridges remain in the low-mid 50s. Afternoon
dewpoints today should be low enough in a drier airmass to preclude
much in the way of any fog tonight into Saturday morning.

Strengthening southwest flow on the backside of the departing
surface ridge will take shape for Saturday as anomalous temperatures
aloft lead to unseasonable thickness/height values. Currently
expecting both high temperature records at Jackson and London to be
broken, with each site`s current record of 80 degrees being
surpassed by temperatures topping out near 83.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2016

The story of the extended period will be possible record warmth
through the middle of next week as upper level ridging remains
positioned over the southeastern CONUS. The period starts with
surface high pressure shifting away from Kentucky as a weak front
approaches the region. This front will move into the region Sunday
night and stall/fall apart, providing zero precipitation. High
pressure pushes further into the Tennessee Valley Monday afternoon.
Record warmth will then remain possible from Monday through
Wednesday as southerly flow reinforces warm Gulf air into the
region. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the period with
highs in the lower to possibly mid 80s. Some of the model guidance
suggests highs in the upper 80s on Tuesday but for now have
generally raised temperatures a couple of degrees above Superblend
Monday through Wednesday. Highs in the mid to upper 80s would be a
staggering 20 degrees above normal for late October.

The only chance for precipitation in the extended period looks to
arrive on Thursday as a cold front and upper trough dig through
Kentucky. This frontal passage should allow temperatures to cool
into the upper 60s for the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)

Patchy mid to high clouds will continue to approach eastern
Kentucky, but VFR conditions will prevail as any lingering low
clouds lift and break up this morning. Patchy valley fog will mix
out and lift by mid morning with unlimited visibilities resulting
thereafter. Light winds will veer from northeasterly to
southeasterly through the day.




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