Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 011017
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
617 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY THIS WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TRENDING DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT
ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND
WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY
FORECAST REMAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER
CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON LONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETE ONE OF THE NICEST
WEEKENDS OF THE SUMMER. AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MAY BRING
CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY CLOSE BY FROM NW OF THE FCST AREA.
OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT CROSS MON...WITH THE GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE
DAWN.

THUNDERSTORMS MON COULD BE A BIT STRONG AND HEAVY GIVEN 25 TO 35
KTS MID LAYER FLOW AND APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT-
DRIVEN MOISTURE FLUX.

THE COLD FRONT CLEARS ON THROUGH MON NT...BUT TUE MORNING WILL
FIND THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WAVES LOW PRESSURE LURKING OUT TO
THE W...AND HEADED EWD ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF A LARGE ERN NA L/W
TROUGH.

BLENDED IN MET/MAV BY DAY AND BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV SUN NT...NOT
MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH MON A BIT WARMER SE PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS MON NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY
FOG THROUGH 13Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z SUNDAY...WHEN PATCHY VALLEY
MVFR/IFR FOG EXPECTED AGAIN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SAT 08/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL



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