Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 282314
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
714 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings a stellar night, before yielding to a
southwest flow of warmer and more humid air Thursday through
Saturday. Cold front crosses late Saturday/Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

As usual in very tranquil weather, models are in very good
agreement, with high pressure dominating our area this period.
Our high pressure center will continue to shift to our east.
Thus, after a milder night, increasing southerly winds and
abundant sunshine on Thursday will boost temperatures well into
the 80s, along with a modest increase in humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Wednesday...

Getting the convergence of a weak upper wave over the southeast
and an approaching upper trough and cold front with gradually
increasing POPs over the region Friday. Temperatures and
dewpoints continue their reach into the upper 80s/ near 70
respectively, back into a more summer type pattern. Keeping the
area in general thunder for now, and the QPF amounts look
manageable with these systems heading through Saturday and cold
front arrival.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 PM Wednesday...

850mb temperatures get knocked back again late this weekend
behind the front, with high pressure regaining control for the
beginning of the work week. No major temperature fluctuations
expected overall, with the next chance for rain arriving
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z Thursday thru 00Z Friday...
As of 710 PM Wednesday...

Til 12Z Thursday...
High pressure brings VFR with scattered cirrus. Fog is not
expected tonight outside of a possible brief period of MVFR in
the most protected valleys around sunrise Thursday. For now will
leave EKN out of fog tonight. Near calm to light south winds.

After 12Z Thursday...
Continued VFR with scattered cirrus, but as the high pressure
shifts to our east, look for winds to increase from the
southwest at 7-12 KTS with some higher gusts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV


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