Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 300223
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1023 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT IN OUR
VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1030PM UPDATE...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS BY BUMPING THEM UP
WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS FROM RECENT RAINFALL. COUNTING ON CLOUD
COVER REFORMING TONIGHT TO KEEP VALLEY FOG PATCHY IN NATURE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WITH THE LOST OF HEATING AROUND
SUNSET. DECREASED POPS FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN WV...KEEPING THE EASTERN HALF
DRY OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WELL...TO PROVIDE
POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE
TYGART...AND OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR SATURDAY...MODELS NOT PICKING UP ON ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC
FORCING TO HAVE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT SAME
ENVIRONMENT COMPARED FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO PREVAIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY
DIURNAL CU AND POCKETS OF SUNSHINE. MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND HIGH SFC BASED CAPE AND LOW
DEEP LAYERED SHEAR. SO...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS...PERHAPS MARGINAL UNDER FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 13500 FEET.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKS REASONABLE. ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES
DUE TO CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE THE GLOBALS ARE TRENDING TOWARD WHAT THE NAM HAS BEEN
INDICATING...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH
WILL HOLD UP THE FRONT INTO E OH UNTIL IT PASSES. AS SUCH...THE
FIRST HALF OF SAT NIGHT MAY BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SOME ISO
ACTIVITY AT BEST. THE WAVE IS POISED TO TREK ACROSS E OH BY MIDDAY
ON SUN...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT THRU AS IT PUSHES INTO PA. SUN
STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED...PARTICULARLY FROM MIDDAY ONWARD.
ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE DEPARTS. THERE MAY BE
A SECONDARY FRONT CROSSING OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING -SHRA.
IT IS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WHERE QUITE A BIT OF LLVL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER THRU MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE H85 FRONT. FOR
TEMPS...THINK AREAS SE OF THE OH RIVER WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SPIKE
UP IN TEMPS AS THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. AS SUCH...HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...CREATING A BIT OF A TEMP
GRADIENT WITH SE OH IN THE LOW 70S. MONDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK
OFF A BIT WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. THE RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK
IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION ON THE DECLINE THIS EVENING...BUT LIKE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...WILL CARRY ISOLATED CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOTHING IN
THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z SATURDAY.

THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECTING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
FORMATION...IMPORTANT FOR THE ROLE IT WILL PLAY IN KEEPING VALLEY
FOG AT BAY. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE TO THIS FOR THE TERMINALS
THAT HAVE OR LATER ON WILL SEE RAIN. RIGHT NOW...EKN IS THE ONLY
SITE WITH IFR VIS IN THE FORECAST.

CONVECTION RETURNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VIS MAY DROP TO IFR IN VALLEY FOG TONIGHT
BRIEFLY IF CLOUD DECKS DO NOT MATERIALIZE.

.AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. IFR LINGERING MONDAY IN LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR FRONT.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26



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