Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 031026
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
626 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES TODAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS...WITH UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER ON
AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS
FROM DROPPING TOO FAR...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ACTUAL FRONT
CROSSES THE OH RIVER BY 00Z THURSDAY. SO...CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AIR FILTERS IN LATE WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES THURSDAY TO
CONTINUE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW
WILL THEN CREATE UNSTABLE AIR WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE FORECAST DUE TO SPREAD IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A PATTERN TRANSITION. THIS BRINGS IN SOME
DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE REMAINING INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH
THE REGION LAST NIGHT WILL MAKE FOR IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS INTO
LATE MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING CEILING TO LIFT
SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF SOME AREAS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE
CLOUDS TONIGHT IT WILL THEN BE LIKELY FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW
I HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAFS AS STRATUS DECK DOES NOT APPEAR
LIKE IT IS GOING FAR TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MPK


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