Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 241029
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
629 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid weather continues today with an isolated t-shower
possible. Weak front drops through Monday night lingering into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Another hot and humid day expected. Have similar afternoon
temperatures, with slightly higher dewpoints when compared to
yesterday. This leads to another day with heat indices around 100,
so have opted to issue a heat advisory for most lowland counties.
Do need to include a bit of uncertainty with this...as decaying MCS
moving into northwest Ohio could leave some cloud debris which
could impact temperatures a bit. Even more impactful would be if
an area of showers or thunderstorms redevelops and crosses the
northern CWA. More on that below.

MCS continues to decay as it heads towards Lake Erie. However,
models do indicate that a weak spin associated with the decaying
MCS will cross just north of CWA today. This could be enough to
kick off some isolated thundershowers especially with the heating
of the day. Keeping a close eye on hi-res models to see if an
increase in POPs would be warranted across the north. For now,
most hi-res guidance is keeping any more organized feature north
of the CWA across northern OH into PA. The one exception is the
HRRR which does try to bring a decent shot of convection into
northwestern CWA this afternoon.

Weak upper level disturbances continue flowing by tonight...so
kept some isolated POPs going across the northwestern CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front along approaches from the northwest to increase
clouds and chances for PCPN later Monday into Tuesday. Models show
some disagreement in the coverage, timing and intensity of
possible showers and storms. Leaned more to the GFS in coverage of
PCPN more numerous than the NAM and faster than the ECMWF.

The NAM shows ample sfc CAPE, low deep layered shear and
precipitable water around 2 inches. These ingredients will be
enough to produce heavy downpours and produce some water problems.

Used mainly the super blend numbers for temperatures through the
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The front finally gets a nudge to the S by Wednesday
with mid level drying spreading into the area keeping afternoon
shra/tsra chances confined over S WV/SW VA in the better moisture. This
front dissolves on Thursday as the next s/w trof and surface low
approach with another uptick in shra/tsra coverage during the
afternoon and lingering into Friday across the mountains.

Temps will gradually ease back closer to normal levels
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fog should dissipate shortly after 12Z, with VFR expected today
with some mid and high clouds. Isolated t-shower possible this
afternoon but low enough coverage to keep out of TAFs for now.
More clouds around tonight, so think fog should be less. Did still
include IFR at EKN, with some MVFR fog possible at other river
valley sites.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing/intensity may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms late Monday. Early morning IFR fog
possible into mid week depending on lingering clouds.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032.
OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ



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