Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 271355
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
955 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level high pressure in place with hot and humid weather
through the weekend. Northwest flow with several upper level
disturbances next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 AM Saturday...

Main update was to raise highs today a degree or two in the river
valleys of the Lowlands. H85 temps are progged to be 1 to 1.5
degrees higher than yesterday and combined with a light SE
downsloping flow...think mid 90s will be realized in those
locales. Even with the higher temps expected than
yesterday...thinking that same SE flow will allow dewpoints to
drop back a degree or two this afternoon. This should keep most
areas shy of heat advisory criteria aside from some of the urban
centers within the river valleys in the Lowlands. After
collaboration with surrounding offices...have elected to stick
with an SPS for heat index values nearing 100.

As of 130 AM Saturday...

High pressure firmly in control at the surface and aloft through
the near term period. This will lead to another hot and humid
day...with heat index values approaching 100 degrees. Do not have
100+ heat indices wide spread enough to meet county average
criteria for a heat advisory. But do have some locations...like
HTS for example...around 100 for an hour or two this afternoon.

Much like yesterday...cannot rule out an isolated thundershower
popping up in the heating of the day. Best chance should be the
elevated heat source of the mountains...so have some isolated POPs
this afternoon across generally the eastern third of CWA.

Only minimal changes made to temperatures using a blend of bias-
corrected MOS for lows and bias-corrected SREF for highs -- based
on recent verification scores.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 AM Saturday...

The area remains under an upper level ridge on Sunday. Can not rule
out some afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms...but
chances remain small. Moisture increases some on Monday as a weak
front approaches from the north. Therefore...will increase pops
some. Considerable model differences by Tuesday on where the back
door front will be. Will stay with a more northerly position for now
since the flow is so light in the low levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 PM Friday...

On or about Tuesday, the upper level ridge that has been lingering
over the region begins to flatten allowing a more zonal
progression. By Thursday an upper level trough digs over the mid
atlantic. With progressive flow, left at least a schc to chc PoPs
most periods. Best chance for a fropa would probably be Wed
evening though not much qpf with any of the weak fronts that cross
the area.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

06Z Saturday through 06Z Sunday...
Expect river valley fog to form early this morning, only have EKN
going IFR, with other valley sites MVFR. However there could be
some variability in this through sunrise. Otherwise VFR today,
with only few to scattered cumulus. Cannot rule out an isolated
shower...but coverage not high enough to warrant even a vicinity
TAF mention. Light low level flow expected...mainly out of the S
to SE this afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of dense fog is in question overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions in morning river valley fog possible through the
weekend...depending on cloud cover. Brief IFR possible in afternoon
showers and thunderstorms through mid week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MZ


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