Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 220008
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
808 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT BUILDS IN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS 24 HOURS AHEAD OF THE CALENDAR...WITH THE AUTUMNAL
EQUINOX MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT SUNSET SUNDAY...WITH
DEW POINT GRADIENT NEAR CKB TO CRW.  CRW DEW POINT FINALLY DROPPING
AT 00Z.

IN WAKE OF FRONT...DRY SLOT. WILL BE SLOWER INCREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION AT 925 TO 850 MB...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING MAXIMUM MOISTURE IN THE COOL
POOL...08Z TO 16Z.  LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER IN THE
NORTHEAST.

EVENTUALLY THE DRY AIR SHOULD WIN OUT.  HOWEVER...DUE TO THE EARLY
EVENING RAIN IN THE DEEP SOUTHERN WV VALLEYS...HAVE SOME FOG THERE
FOR A TIME 00Z TO 06Z...BEFORE THE DRIER AIR INFILTRATES EVEN THOSE
DEEP VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL THE
MODELS...WHICH IS EXPECTED AT THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF
THE YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE LOW
LANDS. LEANING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY DAY AND LOWER SIDE
BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT SUNSET WITH DEW POINT
GRADIENT NEAR CKB TO CRW.

HAVE SOME FOG POSSIBLE IN THE DEEP SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA VALLEYS
01Z THRU 06Z DUE TO RECENT RAINS.  DEW POINTS IN THOSE VALLEYS MAY
BE SLOW TO DROP OVERNIGHT...BUT DID FIGURE THE GRADIENT WIND AND
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT...EVEN IN THOSE DEEPER
VALLEYS.

DRY SLOP IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS 4 TO 6 THSD
FT. AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN...WAS SLOWER IN DROPPING CEILINGS IN
THE COOL POOL.  THINK THE MAXIMUM COVERAGE OF CEILINGS NEAR 2 TO 3
THSD FT WITH 1 TO 2 THSD FT OVER WV MOUNTAINS 08Z TO 15Z MONDAY.
FEW SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE CKB TO EKN VCNTY DURING THAT
TIME.

18Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS LIFTING AND SCATTERED OUT AT 2
TO 4 THSD FT.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS DO NOT LOWER AS QUICKLY 06Z TO 12Z
MONDAY.  DEW POINT AT CRW DOES NOT LOWER AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED WITH
SOME FOG FORMING BY 06Z.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 09/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB









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