Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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183
FXUS61 KRLX 181119
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
619 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low keeps clouds in place today. Active pattern
continues, with a warm front crossing Friday, and then a
stronger low pressure system early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 615 AM Wednesday...

Rain/drizzle has been slow to arrive, and very light so far. Cut
back POPs some early this morning. Also ended POPs sooner this
afternoon, based mainly on the HRRR and RAP.

As of 1230 AM Wednesday...

Cold front has exited to the east, taking any showers with it.
Attention now turns to 500mb low which will cross the upper Ohio
River Valley through this morning. This feature will keeps lots
of low clouds in place through much of the day. Also expect some
rain showers and/or areas of drizzle through mid morning. Some
of this could be light snow late today at the highest
elevations as 850mb temps drop below freezing after 12Z. QPF is
pretty limited so only have a tenth or two of accumulation along
the highest ridges.

850mb temps should bottom out around 15Z and then start warming,
so any lingering precipitation should taper off through the
afternoon. In the trapped low level moisture, clouds will linger
longer -- through much of the afternoon across the south, and
through much of tonight farther north.

Temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday, but still
mainly above normal with lowland highs in the 40s to around 50.
Overnight lows will generally be just above freezing...and
likely the coolest night through this forecast package.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

High pressure Thursday. A system lifts through the area
Thursday night and Friday.

Overall it seems to be modeled well, but there is also some
indication that as it traverses our cwa that the precip shield
splits due to downsloping. For now, just kept general high pops
across the area mainly in the overnight hours. This one looks
like about a 1/4 of an inch of rain for everyone.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

Dry weather for Saturday then a large system approaches the
area Sunday and arrives Sunday night into Monday before exiting
early Tuesday.

Still too warm for snow, so rainfall amounts and winds are the
primary concerns with this system especially with our saturated
soils. Models are in good agreement on details, so fairly
confident in its occurrence thus have pops on the high side for
that timeframe. Due to the systems approach trajectory, downsloping
may break up precip shield again. The system will be occluding
as it passes the area, so QPF amounts may be maximized in the
vcnty.

High pressure builds Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 615 AM Wednesday...

Upper level low crosses the upper Ohio River Valley through mid
morning, with low stratus all day and some showers/light
rain/drizzle through this morning. Have generally MVFR ceilings,
however there could be some IFR. Clouds should slowly break up
from south to north this evening into tonight.

Winds will remain west to northwest today, decreasing tonight as
high pressure moves in. Not expecting any fog tonight with
lingering clouds across the north, however should breaks develop
fog may form.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing MVFR / IFR ceilings may vary, and
may start to lift sooner Wednesday afternoon. Fog may form
overnight if clouds break up.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               WED 01/18/17
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    M    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in rain Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MZ



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