Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 061744
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
144 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA.
ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS
USUAL...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO/NE KY/ADJACENT WV AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE HUMID AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THIS PERIOD. A FRONT MEANDERS
SLOWLY ABOUT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...NOTHING IS IN PLACE TO MOVE THE FRONT OUT OF THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP WATER REMAINS VERY HIGH. WITH AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSED...FRONTAL POSITION WILL
BE KEY TO THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES PLACE THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA ENCOMPASSES OUR OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
COUNTIES. THE THREAT DOES DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

THE TREND SHOWS THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAY GET A
BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
POINT TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO
THE LOWER 80S IN THE LOWLANDS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 60S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY...
MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LOW
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING/LIFTING TO VFR
EXPECTED AFTER 21Z...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS THE DISTURBANCE
GRADUALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME AREAS...ACROSS THE
NORTH...SUCH AS AT SITES KCKB AND KEKN...MAY NOT TOTALLY
CLEAR/LOSE THE STRATUS DECK.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 00Z.

AREAS THAT CLEAR ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT WILL LIKELY SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...WITH MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS ACROSS
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN SITES. SOME CLEARING TO VFR AFTER 13-14Z
EXPECTED...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DEVELOPING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS
TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...SL


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