Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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930
FXUS61 KRLX 241327
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
927 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
No surface fronts eager to approach. Ridging aloft begins today with
its axis shifting to our east Wednesday. Weak disturbances aloft
dent ridge Wednesday into Thursday. Ridge stronger Friday/Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM update...forecast on track. No changes necessary.

Previous Discussion...
Upper level low to the east will finally lift out of the mid
Atlantic towards the Canadian Maritimes...and already have seen
the exit of the cloud cover from the counterclockwise flow aloft.
Expecting brief ridging in its place over the Ohio Valley before
the flow turns west southwesterly aloft...but that should keep the
cloud cover to a minimum today and tonight...with an increase in
temperatures.

Not much surface moisture advection to be seen at this point...with
dewpoints still peaking out in the low to mid 50s over the lowlands.
This will help to allow one last night of lowland low temperatures
in the 50s tonight...which will be gradually increasing into the
middle and end of the week as we transition to a more late
spring/early summer type pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging in the mid and upper levels throughout.  With its
axis just to our east...weak disturbances try to dent the ridge
Wednesday into Thursday morning...before rebuilding late Thursday
into Saturday.

Overall...the trend was to lower our already meager pops for showers
and thunderstorms with the weak disturbances.  Was even slower
introducing the 20 and 30 pops from the wsw on Wednesday with the
initial weakening disturbance aloft.  Was not too keen on thunder
chances with that initial disturbance on Wednesday...but kept a
slight chance in the tri state Hts vcnty.

Best chance for showers appears to be our northwest counties
overnight Wednesday night into Thursday...but still...we have
pops no higher than 40 percent at this time.

By Friday...you can forget about looking west.  Main interest will
be drawn to our southeast. The gfs solution was the first to
indicate interesting features off the southeast coast Friday into
Saturday...and it continues to be fairly consistent through its 00z
run. Ecmwf recently has trended wetter there.

Close call for Friday...but better chance on Saturday...for some 90
degree maximum temperatures in the southern and western river
valleys. Considering our recent wet weather and green
vegetation/canopy...we kept the 90 deg maximum temperature at bay on
Friday. A southeast wind flow here may help with a 90 deg maximum
temperature in the southern river valleys on Saturday. That same
flow on Saturday may prevent the southern WV plateau temperature
from rising above that observed on Friday.

So the main theme is the summer preview...good timing for the
holiday weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The Memorial Day weekend will feature summer like weather,
especially in comparison with the weather of late. Upper level
ridging continues to build during the beginning of the period, and
then breaks down a bit near the end of the period. The area
remains in what will have become a very warm and humid air mass by
then, and the forecast portrays afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms throughout, only a slight chance Friday and
Saturday given the ridging, and then a chance Sunday and Monday
given the breaking down of the ridge.

The GFS actually seems to portray a tropical, or at least
subtropical, system coming our way early next week from the
coastal Carolinas.

Temperatures looked reasonable in this summer pattern in light of
the latest guidance, save for some upward adjustments on highs.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR after the valley fog/mist lifts this morning under generally
westerly winds...less than 10kts. No ceilings expected through the
TAF period...with only FEW 4-5kft clouds expected during heating
hours today.

Dry air remains in place...and warmer temperatures expected today
means less valley fog tonight. Still will have to watch EKN for
IFR or worse visibilities late. Otherwise...brief MVFR to VFR
conditions prevail after 03Z Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR potential in question for EKN after 06Z
tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&



.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/26
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26



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