Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 240431
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1131 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OUT IN THE
PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE SLOWLY BEEN MAKING THEIR WAY
EASTWARD... BUT STILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AT THIS
HOUR. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
REACH EASTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORMS MAY IMPACT OSAGE... PAWNEE...
AND CREEK COUNTIES AS EARLY AS 10 PM... WHICH IS WHEN OUR POPS
BEGIN. FOR NOW... OUR FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT
AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS SO WILL NOT UPDATE THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE AREA WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/80S AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 35 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. ALSO THIS AFTERNOON...A
DRYLINE HAD MOVED INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG/NEAR THE DRYLINE AND MAKE A RUN TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT MAKES IT THIS FAR EAST SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE CWA AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT OVER TAKES THE DRYLINE AND APPROACHES THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY. A LIMITED POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN
HAZARDS.

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
DAY...MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND EXIT THE CWA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA COULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A
LOW THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
AGAIN BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. BEHIND THE EXITING COLD
FRONT...BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS COULD CREATE AREAS OF FIRE DANGER
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS THAT MIGHT
RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL.

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY RETURN TO THE REGION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A LONGWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO
PUSH ONTO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AGAIN DEVELOP
ALONG AND NEAR THE DRYLINE AND PUSH TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE CWA WILL BE POSITIONED
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GREATER CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE DRYLINE SHIFTS EASTWARD TO AROUND THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND THE LONGWAVE TROF WRAPS UP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
PLAINS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND ONCE AGAIN HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THUS...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE
COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WHILE THE CLOSED LOW STALLS OVER PLAINS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS OFF TO THE EAST. BEHIND THE EXITING
SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COLDER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO THE CWA FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...10





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