Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 230236
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
936 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MINOR FIRST PERIOD GRID TWEAKS...LITTLE CHANGE.
GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AREAWIDE
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS MY CO-WORKER JUST SAID...THIS IS THE SUMMER WE`VE BEEN LOOKING
FOR ALL SUMMER. HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS NE OK ARE CURRENTLY AT OR
VERY NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 70S. WILL LEAVE THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE STORM TRACK WELL NORTH AND PUSHING
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FOR ALL AREAS
EXCEPT NW AR. SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
A LITTLE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS.

CHANGES COMING FOR LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS...ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DIFFER IN HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF...WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT
POPS ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78 100  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   74  99  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   74 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   73  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   73  98  72  98 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   74  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
F10   74  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   74  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21





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