Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 281147
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
547 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE OK TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET.  GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING...UPPER LEVEL WEST NORTHWESTERLY DOWN SLOPE
FLOW WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
EASTERN OKLAHOMA WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE SURFACE
FEATURES...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS HAVING SHIFTED OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP TEMPS TO WARM
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S BEING
COMMON ACROSS THE CWA. A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE
BETWEEN THE SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
INCREASE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 15-30 MPH WILL
BE CAPABLE DURING THE DAY TODAY...WHICH WILL IN- TURN ELEVATE FIRE
WEATHER DANGERS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CWA...THUS RAISING DEWPOINTS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP FIRE DANGERS BELOW RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AHEAD
OF A WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...THUS CONTINUING AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD AGAIN KEEP FIRE
CONDITIONS FROM REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA...THOUGH IT COULD BE
CLOSER COMPARED TO TODAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM TEMPS AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
CWA...WITH A SHARP TEMP DROP SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
TEMPS MONDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S TO 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING. SOME LIGHT PRECIP LOOKS TO CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE THE WAVE PUSHES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
INDICATE THAT SOME FREEZING PRECIP COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 800-MB AND DRIER AIR WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...ANY WINTRY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN ALONG WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLEET
MONDAY AS TEMPS WITHIN THE WARM NOSE DECREASE CLOSER TO 0
CELSIUS. AT THIS TIME...AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIGHT WITH PRECIP
MOVING OUT BY MONDAY EVENING. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
REFINE DETAILS AS LATEST DATA COMES IN FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS.
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY RETURN TUESDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS FOR THE
LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK
TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER SOME ON SOLUTIONS WITH THE LATE WEEK WAVE AS
FAR AS TIMING/STRENGTH/LOCATION. LATEST ECMWF HAS COME A LITTLE
MORE IN- LINE WITH THE GFS WITH SOME POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THUS...WILL ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





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