Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 131050
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
550 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE PERIOD AT ALL AREA TAF SITES. HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS AT
THE TAF SITES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
FOR THUNDER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP AHEAD OF INITIAL WEAK FRONT...WHICH WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG FRONT MAINLY THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH INTO EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA/ NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE MARGINAL...LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL/OVERALL THUNDERSTORM
ORGANIZATION.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL/BECOME DIFFUSE INTO THE DAY MONDAY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA BEFORE STRONGER/MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER
BY TUESDAY MORNING.

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS
FRONT STALLS OVER NORTH TEXAS. MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...10





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