Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 270528
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1128 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Cold front at 05z was located across swrn MO...extreme nwrn corner
of AR...to near KADH. Widespread precipitation across the region
ahead of and behind the sharp boundary. Front will continue to
push through all TAF sites by 15z. Cigs mainly IFR behind front
and MVFR ahead of front. MVFR vsby in rain/fog with IFR vsbys in
heavier rain showers. Weak elevated instability yet to be realized
north of the Red River and although TSRA chances are nonzero, have
not included in any TAFs at this time due to very low probability.
Poor flight conditions will persist through this forecast period.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015/
The cold front is slightly ahead of schedule as it plunges
southeast across the area this evening. The temperature gradient
behind the front is also a bit sharper than forecast, although the
location of the freezing line is about right on that suggested by
recent runs of the NAM12. The 00Z NAM12 is very similar to its
most recent runs on dropping the freezing line just to the
northwest corner of our forecast area late Friday and then holding
it there until it retreats back to the northwest Saturday morning.
As a result, the only change to the forecast is to hasten the
initial temperature drop behind the front, which results in
slightly cooler lows tonight and also highs Friday since
temperatures will be nearly steady or falling all day.
Update on the way.
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for OKZ049-053-
Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for OKZ056>058-
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-