Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 010157
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
857 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
CONTINUE TO LOOK POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE
44 AS MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY...BUT WITH SOME
INSTABILITY PRESENT...CHANCE IS NOT ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S APPEAR REASONABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONGOING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FOREAST
PERIOD. LOW CHANCE OF MORNING MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR PATCHY FOG
OTHERWISE THE DEVELOPING CU FIELD WILL RISE INTO VFR RANGE. ANY
OVERNIGHT STORM CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION ACROSS FAR NE
OK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER SYSTEM THAT HAS ENTERED THE HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO LIFT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING ENERGY WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE SUPPORTS ONGOING LOW POPS ACROSS THE NW ZONES
TONIGHT. NEXT DISTURBANCE TO DIG SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH
TO BECOME THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNTIL
THEN...WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES STILL ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY THURSDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE. INGREDIENTS
FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE COMING TOGETHER AS A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY ALIGNS WELL WITH PEAK HEATING...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS ACROSS
FAR ERN OK AND NW AR. ADDITIONALLY...EXITING UPPER SPEED MAX
PLACES FAR ERN OK AND NW IN A FAVORABLE SHEAR ZONE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THIS MAY PLACE THOSE LOCATIONS UNDER A
HIGHER SEVERE STORM RISK. FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER FILTERING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AFTERNOON MAXES
AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22




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