Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 011744
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1144 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty northwest
winds will decrease near or just after 00Z, becoming light and
variable overnight. Surface high pressure builds over the area
today and gradually slides eastward overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1125 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Main concerns today will be continuing to monitor fire weather
conditions across western Arkansas with relative humidity expected
to drop into the 25-30% range and winds gusting 20 to 25mph.
Overall, forecast appears to be on track with just minor adjustments
made.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 322 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms have largely moved east of the forecast area early
this morning, in advance of the cold front progressing
southeastward through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The
Tornado Watch remaining across parts of southeast Oklahoma and
west central Arkansas will be cancelled early. The front is
likely to be southeast of the forecast area by sunrise, with much
colder temperatures, lower dew points, and gusty northwesterly
winds prevailing behind it.

Fire weather concerns will be heightened today, with near Red Flag
conditions expected across parts of southeast Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. Dew points will drop into the teens and 20s with
afternoon mixing, and combined with the expected daytime highs,
will yield relative humidities in the 15 to 25 percent range in
parts of the forecast area. Will cover the fire weather threat
with a strongly worded Fire Danger Statement and pass along Red
Flag concerns to the day shifters.

Warmer temperatures will begin to arrive Friday, continuing
through the weekend and into early next week. At least a small
chance of thunderstorms will exist toward the end of the weekend
and into early next week ahead of a front and fast moving
disturbance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  30  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   62  33  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   64  31  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   59  24  62  27 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   56  26  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   55  31  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   61  31  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   57  28  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
F10   61  32  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   64  35  63  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...11


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