Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 270033
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Mar 27 0031 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 27-Mar 29 2017 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 27-Mar 29 2017

            Mar 27     Mar 28     Mar 29
00-03UT        4          5 (G1)     6 (G2)
03-06UT        5 (G1)     6 (G2)     6 (G2)
06-09UT        4          5 (G1)     5 (G1)
09-12UT        3          4          4
12-15UT        3          4          4
15-18UT        3          4          3
18-21UT        4          5 (G1)     3
21-00UT        5 (G1)     6 (G2)     4

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on day one (27 Mar)
with G1 (Minor) and G2 (Moderate) levels likely on days two and three
(28-29 Mar) due to coronal hole high speed stream activity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 27-Mar 29 2017

              Mar 27  Mar 28  Mar 29
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 27-Mar 29 2017

              Mar 27        Mar 28        Mar 29
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


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