Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 181231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Jan 18 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 18-Jan 20 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 18-Jan 20 2017

            Jan 18     Jan 19     Jan 20
00-03UT        1          5 (G1)     4
03-06UT        3          4          4
06-09UT        3          3          3
09-12UT        3          3          2
12-15UT        4          3          3
15-18UT        4          3          3
18-21UT        5 (G1)     4          3
21-00UT        5 (G1)     4          4

Rationale: Isolated periods of G1-Minor storming is likely on day one
(18 Jan), due to continued CIR effects and the onset of a positive
polarity CH HSS. G1-Minor storming is likely to continue early on day
two (19 Jan) as CH HSS effects persist.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 18-Jan 20 2017

              Jan 18  Jan 19  Jan 20
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 18-Jan 20 2017

              Jan 18        Jan 19        Jan 20
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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