Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 241231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 May 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 24-May 26 2017 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 24-May 26 2017

            May 24     May 25     May 26
00-03UT        2          1          2
03-06UT        2          1          2
06-09UT        1          2          1
09-12UT        1          1          1
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        2          1          3
18-21UT        2          1          4
21-00UT        2          2          4

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels on day one (24 May) as CH HSS effects persist. A decrease to
mostly quiet levels is expected by day two (25 May) as the negative
polarity CH HSS moves out of a geoeffective position. Unsettled to
active conditions are expected, with a slight chance for G1-Minor storm
conditions, by midday on day three (26 May), with the arrival of the 23
May CME.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 24-May 26 2017

              May 24  May 25  May 26
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 24-May 26 2017

              May 24        May 25        May 26
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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