Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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386
FXXX10 KWNP 301231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Apr 30 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 30-May 02 2016 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 30-May 02 2016

            Apr 30     May 01     May 02
00-03UT        1          4          3
03-06UT        1          4          3
06-09UT        2          2          2
09-12UT        2          3          2
12-15UT        5 (G1)     3          2
15-18UT        3          3          2
18-21UT        3          2          2
21-00UT        4          3          3

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely as a negative
polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective on day one (30 Apr).

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2016

              Apr 30  May 01  May 02
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2016

              Apr 30        May 01        May 02
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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