Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX10 KWNP 050031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Jul 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 05-Jul 07 2015 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 05-Jul 07 2015

            Jul 05     Jul 06     Jul 07
00-03UT        6 (G2)     4          3
03-06UT        5 (G1)     4          2
06-09UT        5 (G1)     4          2
09-12UT        5 (G1)     4          2
12-15UT        4          3          2
15-18UT        4          3          2
18-21UT        4          3          2
21-00UT        4          3          2

Rationale: The continued influence of a co-rotating interaction region
(CIR) followed by a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS) is expected to cause periods of G1 (Minor) and G2 (Moderate)
geomagnetic storming through day one (05 Jul).  Unsettled to active
periods are expected on day two (06 Jul) as CH HSS effects persist.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 05-Jul 07 2015

              Jul 05  Jul 06  Jul 07
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 05-Jul 07 2015

              Jul 05        Jul 06        Jul 07
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts for the forecast period (05-07 Jul).


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