Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 170030
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Apr 17 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 17-Apr 19 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 17-Apr 19 2014

            Apr 17     Apr 18     Apr 19
00-03UT        2          3          2
03-06UT        2          2          1
06-09UT        2          2          1
09-12UT        2          2          1
12-15UT        1          1          1
15-18UT        1          1          1
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        3          3          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 17-Apr 19 2014

              Apr 17  Apr 18  Apr 19
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 16 2014 1959 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 17-Apr 19 2014

              Apr 17        Apr 18        Apr 19
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: Solar activity is likely to be at (R1-Minor) levels for the
next three days (17 - 19 Apr) as Regions 2034, 2035, 2036, and 2037
maintain increased magnetic complexities.



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