Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
FXXX10 KWNP 051231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Dec 05 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 05-Dec 07 2016 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 05-Dec 07 2016

            Dec 05     Dec 06     Dec 07
00-03UT        2          2          2
03-06UT        1          1          2
06-09UT        0          1          1
09-12UT        0          1          1
12-15UT        2          1          3
15-18UT        2          1          3
18-21UT        2          2          4
21-00UT        2          2          4

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 05-Dec 07 2016

              Dec 05  Dec 06  Dec 07
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 05-Dec 07 2016

              Dec 05        Dec 06        Dec 07
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-Minor) for
the next three days (05-07 Dec).



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.