Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
000
FXXX10 KWNP 300031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Jan 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 30-Feb 01 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 30-Feb 01 2015

            Jan 30     Jan 31     Feb 01
00-03UT        3          5 (G1)     4
03-06UT        3          4          4
06-09UT        2          3          3
09-12UT        2          2          3
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        3          2          2
18-21UT        3          3          2
21-00UT        5 (G1)     3          2

Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are forecast for
January 30-31 in response to a recurrent high speed solar wind stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 30-Feb 01 2015

              Jan 30  Jan 31  Feb 01
S1 or greater    5%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is an increasing chance for an S1 (Minor) or greater
solar radiation storms over the next three days as Region 2268 rotates
into an increasingly geoeffective position.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jan 29 2015 1142 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 30-Feb 01 2015

              Jan 30        Jan 31        Feb 01
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1 (Minor) to R2 (Moderate) radio
blackouts and a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater event
through the forecast period from Regions 2268 and 2277.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.