Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 191231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Sep 19 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 19-Sep 21 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 19-Sep 21 2014

            Sep 19     Sep 20     Sep 21
00-03UT        4          3          2
03-06UT        5 (G1)     3          1
06-09UT        4          2          1
09-12UT        3          1          1
12-15UT        3          1          1
15-18UT        2          1          1
18-21UT        3          2          2
21-00UT        3          2          2

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at G1-Minor storm
levels through midday on day one (19 Sep). Conditions should return to
below G1 Minor conditions for days two and three (20 -21 Sep).

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 19-Sep 21 2014

              Sep 19  Sep 20  Sep 21
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 19-Sep 21 2014

              Sep 19        Sep 20        Sep 21
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


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