Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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AXUS73 KDLH 071642
DGTDLH
MNC001-017-021-031-035-061-071-075-115-137-WIC003-007-013-031-051-
099-113-129-091645-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1142 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015


...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS SPREAD IN THE MISSISSIPPI HEADWATERS...

SYNOPSIS...
DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN DRIVEN
BY A LACK OF PRECIPITATION WHICH BEGAN IN SEPTEMBER 2014.
WHILE MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS ALL OF MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HEADWATER BASINS ARE IN
SEVERE DROUGHT.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
VERY DRY FALL CONDITIONS AND A LACK OF WINTER AND SPRING PRECIPITATION
HAVE RESULTED IN DRY SOIL CONDITIONS AND VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT AVAILABLE FOR RUNOFF. LITTLE RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS
SPRING... THUS RIVERS LEVELS ARE RECEDING WHEN THEY SHOULD BE
SWOLLEN. WHILE RIVER LEVELS RECEDE RESERVOIRS WHICH DEPEND ON
SPRING SNOW MELT AND APRIL RAINS REMAIN LOW.

DRY CONDITIONS HAVE LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER. THE LIGHT SNOW
PACK ALLOWED VEGETATION TO REMAIN STANDING AND DRYING THROUGHOUT
THE WINTER. CONTINUED PERIODS OF VERY LOW HUMIDITY HAVE ALSO
CONTRIBUTED TO TINDER DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
PRECIPITATION DATA GATHERED AT SITES WITH OVER 100 YEARS OF RECORD
INCLUDING...CASS LAKE...GRAND RAPIDS...LEECH LAKE AND DULUTH
INDICATE EXTREMELY LOW PRECIPITATION SINCE LAST FALL. PRECIPITATION
SINCE SEPTEMBER RANGE FROM 60 PERCENT TO 40 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
AS OF MAY 6TH THE STATIONS MENTIONED ABOVE ALL RANK IN THE TOP 3
DRIEST PERIOD FROM SEPTEMBER TO MAY 6TH.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE IMPACTED REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY MAY 14TH. THE FIRST OF THREE SYSTEMS IS BRINGING RAIN
TODAY...THURSDAY...AND WILL PRODUCE OFF AND ON SHOWERS ENDING
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SECOND CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION LIFTS
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AND
LINGERS INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS LATE IN THE
WEEK.

FOR THE PERIOD MAY 12TH THROUGH MAY 20TH THERE IS ABOVE
NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD TRANSITIONING TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE THIRD WEEK IN MAY.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

WHILE THE BEGINNING OF MAY IS NORMALLY OUR PEAK STREAM FLOW PERIOD...
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS IN LOW FLOW STATUS. THIS MEANS UPSTREAM
RESERVOIRS ARE REQUIRED TO MAINTAIN DOWN STREAM RIVER LEVELS FOR
BIOLOGY AND CRITICAL MUNICIPAL USES AS WELL AS NAVIGATION.
HEADWATER RESERVOIRS WILL LIKELY HAVE LOWER THAN NORMAL POOL
LEVELS.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
IF NEEDED, THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED THURSDAY MAY 14.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

LOCAL WEATHER...CLIMATE AND WATER INFORMATION...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DLH
US DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/
MIDWESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTP://MCC.SWS.UIUC.EDU/
HIGH PLAINS REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTP://WWW.HPRCC.UNL.EDU/
MINNESOTA CLIMATOLOGY WORKING GROUP...HTTP://CLIMATE.UMN.EDU/
WISCONSIN STATE CLIMATOLOGY OFFICE...HTTP://WWW.AOS.WISC.EDU/~SCO/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
MINNESOTA DEPT. OF NATURAL RESOURCES...
HTTP://WWW.DNR.STATE.MN.US/FORESTRY/FIRE/INDEX.HTML
WISCONSIN DEPT. OF NATURAL RESOURCES...HTTP://DNR.WI.GOV/
USDA NASS...HTTP://WWW.NASS.USDA.GOV/INDEX.ASP
U.S. RAIN/DRY DAYS...HTTP://EARLYWARNING.USGS.GOV/USRAINDRY/

RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE...HTTP://WWW.MVP-WC.USACE.ARMY.MIL/
MNDNR...WWW.DNR.MN.US/WATERS/SURFACEWATER_SECTION/STREAM_HYDRO/INDEX.HTML

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA`S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER ..THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS...AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES... STATE COOPERATIVE
EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS REPORT PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH
5027 MILLER TRUNK HIGHWAY
DULUTH MN 55811
PHONE: 218-729-0651
E-MAIL:W-DLH.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV




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