Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 171812
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-011815-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
112 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

...DESPITE SPOTTY RAINFALL DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST WEEK
HAVE GOTTEN WORSE...

SYNOPSIS...

APRIL HAS SEEN BOTH WARM AND COLD TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE OF
RAINFALL EVENTS. FOR THE MOST PART RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN RAINFALL
OF ONE TO TWO INCHES. NOW THAT WE ARE MOVING INTO SPRING SOME OF
THE STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.
FOR THE MONTH TO DATE MOST LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN LESS THAN ONE INCH
OF RAINFALL. OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE SEE NO
RAINFALL IN APRIL AND LESS THAN A HALF INCH SINCE JANUARY 1ST. THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MID
APRIL AVERAGES. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS
REMAIN AT A MINIMUM IN MANY LOCATIONS...BUT WILL GET WORSE IF
DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE. CURRENTLY THE MAIN SHORT TERM IMPACTS
ARE MANY LOCATIONS HAVE WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE INCREASING DUE TO MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES THAT QUICKLY DRY THE FUELS. LONG
TERM IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A MULTIPLE YEAR
DROUGHT. RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS ARE VERY LOW AND
WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO SEE FREQUENT RAINFALL
EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO
SUMMER 2014. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EL NINO
WATCH...SAYING THERE IS A 50 PERCENT OR GREATER CHANCE AN EL NINO
EVENT WILL DEVELOP IN THE SUMMER OR EARLY FALL. EVEN THOUGH LA
NINA AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE
REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER
PATTERNS TOO... SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE
PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR
THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID APRIL 15TH AND ISSUED ON APRIL
17TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE GOTTEN SLIGHTLY WORSE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE PAST WEEK.
ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) CONDITIONS WERE
PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY
IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) STATUS. THERE
CONTINUED TO BE AREAS OF EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND PORTIONS THE HILL COUNTRY...MAINLY IN
GILLESPIE...KERR... BANDERA...MEDINA AND VAL VERDE COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY 66 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND TEN PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS MODERATE ACROSS THE AREA. IF WETTING RAINFALL IS
NOT OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF APRIL 17TH...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 8
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE:

ATASCOSA
BEXAR
KENDALL
KERR
LLANO
UVALDE
VAL VERDE
WILSON

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

BANDERA   FAYETTE    LEE
BASTROP   FRIO       MAVERICK
BLANCO    GILLESPIE  MEDINA
BURNET    GONZALES   REAL
CALDWELL  GUADALUPE  TRAVIS
COMAL     HAYS       WILLIAMSON
DEWITT    KARNES     ZAVALA
DIMMIT    KINNEY
EDWARDS   LAVACA

RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL COUNTY
WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING TO
CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE APRIL 17TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED THE
FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

0-200     200-300     300-400    400-500    500-600

         BASTROP      BLANCO     ATASCOSA   BANDERA
         FAYETTE      BURNET     BEXAR      KARNES
         HAYS         CALDWELL   COMAL      MEDINA
         GONZALES     DIMMIT     DEWITT
         LAVACA       GUADALUPE  EDWARDS
         LEE          WILSON     FRIO
         TRAVIS                  GILLESPIE
         WILLIAMSON              KENDALL
                                 KERR
                                 KINNEY
                                 MAVERICK
                                 LLANO
                                 REAL
                                 UVALDE
                                 VAL VERDE
                                 ZAVALA

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL ON APRIL 15 2014 INDICATED...WARM...DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE REGION. A FEW COUNTIES
REPORTED FROM 0NE-HALF INCH TO MORE THAN ONE INCH OF RAIN...
A WELCOME EVENT FOR RANGELAND AS WELL AS ROW CROPS. PECAN TREES
WERE BUDDING. CORN AND GRAIN SORGHUM EMERGED...AND COTTON GROWERS
WERE WRAPPING UP PLANTING. WHEAT...OATS WERE IN GOOD
CONDITION...AS WERE LIVESTOCK. SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING OF LIVESTOCK
CONTINUED.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2014 TO MIDNIGHT APRIL 16, 2014 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2014        NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL     TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY       3.91        7.99        -4.08          49%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM   3.86        8.16        -4.30          47%
SAN ANTONIO        2.22        6.83        -4.61          33%
DEL RIO            0.54        3.50        -2.96          15%

FOR APRIL...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED NO RAINFALL TO DATE. THIS IS
0.76 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.76 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR APRIL TO DATE IS 71.5 DEGREES. THIS IS
1.5 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 70.0 DEGREES.

FOR APRIL...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED
0.51 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.46 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL
OF 0.97  OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR APRIL TO DATE IS 68.0 DEGREES. THIS IS
0.5 OF A DEGREE ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 67.5 DEGREES.

FOR APRIL...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 1.81 INCHES OF RAIN.
THIS IS 0.82 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 0.99 OF AN INCH. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR APRIL TO DATE IS 66.1
DEGREES. THIS IS 1.4 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 67.5 DEGREES.

FOR APRIL...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED
1.58 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.53 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE NORMAL
OF 1.05 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE AUSTIN
BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR APRIL TO DATE IS 64.5 DEGREES.
THIS IS 1.0 DEGREE BELOW THE NORMAL OF 65.5 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INDICATES A FAIRLY WARM AND
SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTERN.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED APRIL 16 AND VALID APRIL 24 THROUGH APRIL 30 WAS INDICATING
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR MAY 2014 THROUGH JULY 2014...
CREATED ON APRIL 17TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE WERE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR
AVERAGE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION...WHICH
INDICATES PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON MAY 15 2014.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS ARE INCREASING DUE TO BELOW AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION SINCE DECEMBER. LAKE LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL
SLOWLY. AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE SPRING AND
INTO SUMMER THE EVAPORATION RATES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUE.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE MUCH BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN
10 PERCENT) ACROSS THE GUADALUPE...MEDINA...FRIO AND NUECES RIVER
BASINS. THE SAN ANTONIO RIVER BASIN WAS REPORTING BELOW NORMAL
(10-24 PERCENT) FLOWS. NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) FLOWS WERE SEEN
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE BASIN. THE COLORADO BASIN WAS REPORTING
NORMAL TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL FLOWS.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF APRIL 17TH...

LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                 1079.5           -37.5
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2                973.5           -90.7
CANYON LAKE          909                  900.3            -8.7
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                  776.6           -14.4
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                  988.5           -31.5
LAKE TRAVIS          681                  626.8           -54.2

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 640 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
3 RESTRICTIONS.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER AUTHORITY HAS DECLARED STAGE 3 RESTRICTIONS
WHICH MEANS THE LARGE USERS OF WATER MUST REDUCE THEIR PUMPING BY
35 PERCENT.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT    APRIL    DEPARTURE FROM    2013 LEVEL   DEPARTURE
  LEVEL    AVERAGE     APRIL AVG      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2013

 638.2 FT  667.8 FT    -29.6 FT         646.9 FT     -8.7 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT IS
CURRENTLY IN NON-DROUGHT. DROUGHT THRESHOLDS COULD BE EXCEEDED
OVER THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO IF THE LACK OF RAINFALL CONTINUES.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 4
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 3
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 2
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 1
SEGUIN                    STAGE 1 NORMAL/AWARENESS WATER STAGE

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND MAY 1 2014 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$










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