Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 152010
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-292015-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
210 PM CST THU JAN 15 2015

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...

JANUARY HAS SEEN CLOUDY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE MONTH. RAINFALL HAS BEEN AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOME
LOCATIONS...BUT BELOW AVERAGE IN OTHER LOCATIONS. THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SEE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN. LONGER TERM
IS CURRENTLY INDICATING A RETURN TO WETTER AND COLDER CONDITIONS.
DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN SOME FREEZING RAIN AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY
THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL HELPED TO REDUCE EVAPORATION RATES AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE
MINOR RUNOFF DURING RAINFALL EVENTS. LAKES AND RESERVOIRS...BASICALLY
REMAINED UNCHANGED DUE TO THE LACK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
LINGERING IMPACTS FROM THE LONG TERM DROUGHT. THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. SHORT TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE SHOWN SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENTS WITH THE REMAINING IMPACTS BEING WATER RESTRICTIONS
AND A FEW COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS. RANCHERS ARE REPORTING STOCK
TANKS REMAIN LOW DESPITE THE RAINFALL THIS WINTER. LONG TERM
DROUGHT IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A MULTIPLE YEAR
DROUGHT. RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS ARE VERY LOW AND
WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO SEE FREQUENT RAINFALL
EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING A 50-60 PERCENT
PERCENT CHANCE THAT A WEAK EL NINO WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT TWO
MONTHS THEN RETURN TO AN ENSO NEUTRAL PATTERN. EL NINO LIKE
IMPACTS ARE NOW BEING FELT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE RAINFALL AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EVEN THOUGH LA
NINA AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE
REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER
PATTERNS TOO... SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE
PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR
THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID JANUARY 13TH AND ISSUED ON
JANUARY 15TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ABNORMALLY DRY
(D0) TO EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN MODERATE (D1) TO
SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT STATUS. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU ARE CURRENTLY IN EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT STATUS.

CURRENTLY 40 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND THREE PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS LOW TO MODERATE. IF WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT OBSERVED THEN
FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF JANUARY 15TH...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 5
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE:

BEXAR
DEWITT
MEDINA
UVALDE
VAL VERDE

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

ATASCOSA   HAYS
BANDERA    KARNES
BASTROP    KENDALL
BLANCO     KERR
BURNET     KINNEY
CALDWELL   LAVACA
COMAL      LEE
DIMMIT     LLANO
EDWARDS    MAVERICK
FAYETTE    REAL
FRIO       TRAVIS
GILLESPIE  WILLIAMSON
GONZALES   WILSON
GUADALUPE  ZAVALA


RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL CITY OR
COUNTY WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING
TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE JANUARY 15TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED
THE FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

0-200       200-300     300-400     400-500

BASTROP     BEXAR       ATASCOSA    BANDERA
CALDWELL    BLANCO      EDWARDS     DIMMIT
FAYETTE     BURNET      KARNES      FRIO
GONZALES    COMAL       KENDALL      MEDINA
HAYS        DEWITT      KERR        ZAVALA
LAVACA      GILLESPIE   KINNEY
LEE         GUADALUPE   MAVERICK
TRAVIS      LLANO       REAL
WILLIAMSON              UVALDE
WILSON                  VAL VERDE

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
WAS NOT AVAILABLE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2015 TO MIDNIGHT JANUARY 14, 2015 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2015       NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL    TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY       2.08        1.01       +1.07         206%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM   1.76        1.03       +0.73         171%
SAN ANTONIO        1.21        0.75       +0.46         161%
DEL RIO            0.24        0.31       -0.07          77%

FOR JANUARY TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 0.24 OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
THIS IS 0.07 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.31 OF AN INCH. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JANUARY TO DATE IS 43.0 DEGREES. THIS IS
8.5 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 51.5 DEGREES.

FOR JANUARY TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 1.21 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.46 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE
NORMAL OF 0.75 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN
ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR JANUARY TO DATE IS 42.9 DEGREES.
THIS IS 8.3 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 51.2 DEGREES.

FOR JANUARY TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 2.08 INCHES OF
RAIN. THIS IS 1.07 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 1.01 INCHES. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR JANUARY TO DATE IS 40.5
DEGREES. THIS IS 10.5 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 51.0 DEGREES.

FOR JANUARY TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 1.76 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.73 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE
NORMAL OF 1.03 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE AUSTIN
BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR JANUARY TO DATE IS 39.8
DEGREES. THIS IS 9.2 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 49.0 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED JANUARY 14 AND VALID JANUARY 22 THROUGH JANUARY 28 WAS
INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 2015 THROUGH APRIL 2015...
CREATED ON JANUARY 15TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR AVERAGE RAINFALL.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

SO FAR IN JANUARY SOME LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN ABOVE AVERAGE
RAINFALL...WHILE OTHERS HAVE SEEN BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL. THE
CONTINUED LACK OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS CAUSED LAKE LEVELS TO
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY. RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS HAVE STARTED CAUSE
SMALL INCREASES ON MOST AREA LAKES. IT WILL TAKE MANY RAINFALL
EVENTS TO GET THE LAKE LEVELS BACK TO NORMAL CONSERVATION POOLS.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUES.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE...LOWER COLORADO AND SAN ANTONIO BASINS. THE FRIO
BASIN REPORTED BELOW NORMAL (10-24 PERCENT) STREAM FLOW AVERAGES.
THE UPPER COLORADO...GUADALUPE...MEDINA AND NUECES BASINS
REPORTED MUCH BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) STREAM FLOW
AVERAGES.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF JANUARY 15TH...

MOST LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                1087.7           -29.3
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2               974.3           -89.9
CANYON LAKE          909                 896.6           -12.4
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                 779.8           -11.2
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                 986.7           -33.3
LAKE TRAVIS          681                 623.4           -57.6

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 640 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
3 RESTRICTIONS.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT      2014 LEVEL   DEPARTURE   JANUARY   DEPARTURE FROM
  LEVEL      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2014   AVERAGE      AVERAGE

 639.9 FT      640.9 FT     -1.0 FT    669.2 FT     -29.3 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT HAS
DECLARED STAGE 2 ALARM DROUGHT STATUS. THIS REQUIRES A 20
PERCENT REDUCTION IN PUMPING.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 3
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 3
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 3
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 2

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND JANUARY 29 2015 OR SOONER
IF NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$









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