Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 251947
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-092000-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
247 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST WEEK...

SYNOPSIS...

THE LAST WEEK ONCE AGAIN PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A
FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVED UP TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THERE WERE
WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL REPORTS. ON THE OTHER HAND THERE
WERE SOME LOCATIONS THAT SAW VERY LITTLE RAINFALL. SEPTEMBER IS
ON TRACK TO BE ONE OF THE WETTEST MONTHS IN A LONG TIME FOR SOME
AREAS. MOST RIVERS...CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE NOW REPORTING AT LEAST
LOW FLOWS. LAKES AND RESERVOIRS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW DECLINES IN
LEVELS WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIGHT OR ABSENT. IN AREAS THAT HAVE
EXPERIENCED RAINFALL LAKES HAVE SHOWN SOME INCREASES. MANY
LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW RAINFALL DEFICITS FOR THE YEAR TO DATE.
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR LATE SEPTEMBER WITH A FEW RAINFALL CHANCES. SHORT TERM DROUGHT
CONDITIONS HAVE SHOWN SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS
BEING WATER RESTRICTIONS AND COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS. LONG TERM
DROUGHT IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A MULTIPLE YEAR
DROUGHT. RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS ARE VERY LOW AND
WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO SEE FREQUENT RAINFALL
EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EL NINO WATCH...SAYING
THERE IS AT LEAST A 60 TO 65 PERCENT CHANCE A WEAK TO MODERATE EL
NINO EVENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. EVEN THOUGH LA
NINA AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE
REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER
PATTERNS TOO... SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE
PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR
THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID SEPTEMBER 23RD AND ISSUED ON
SEPTEMBER 25TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED IN
SEVERAL AREAS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO
EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN MODERATE (D1) TO SEVERE
(D2) DROUGHT STATUS. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY ARE IN EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT STATUS.

CURRENTLY 52 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND TWO PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS LOW TO MODERATE DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. IF
WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL
INCREASE.

AS OF SEPTEMBER 25TH...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR
11 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE:

ATASCOSA
BEXAR
BURNET
DEWITT
GUADALUPE
KERR
MEDINA
TRAVIS
UVALDE
VAL VERDE
WILSON

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

BANDERA    HAYS
BASTROP    KARNES
BLANCO     KENDALL
CALDWELL   KINNEY
COMAL      LAVACA
DIMMIT     LEE
EDWARDS    LLANO
FAYETTE    MAVERICK
FRIO       REAL
GILLESPIE  WILLIAMSON
GONZALES   ZAVALA


RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL CITY OR
COUNTY WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING
TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE SEPTEMBER 25TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED
THE FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

0-200   200-300     300-400     400-500   500-600   600-700

TRAVIS  BLANCO      BASTROP     BURNET    ATASCOSA  BEXAR
        LEE         CALDWELL    COMAL     BANDERA   FRIO
        WILLIAMSON  HAYS        EDWARDS   DEWITT    MAVERICK
                    FAYETTE     GONZALES  DIMMIT
                    GILLESPIE   GUADALUPE KARNES
                    LLANO       KENDALL   KERR
                                REAL      KINNEY
                                UVALDE    LAVACA
                                          MEDINA
                                          VAL VERDE
                                          WILSON
                                          ZAVALA

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL ON SEPTEMBER 23 2014 INDICATED...THE CENTRAL
NORTH-TO-SOUTH CORRIDOR RECEIVED MORE RAINS...SOME FAIRLY GOOD.
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT CONTINUED TO RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT ALSO RECEIVED
SHOWERS...SOME SCATTERED AND OTHERS MORE SUBSTANTIAL. TOPSOIL AND
SUBSOIL MOISTURE WERE IMPROVING. COTTON WAS IN VARIOUS STAGES OF
DEFOLIATION WITH HARVEST ON HOLD IN SOME AREAS DUE TO WET
CONDITIONS. IN SOME OF THE CENTRAL COUNTIES...THE COTTON HARVEST
HAS BEEN ON HOLD LONG ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME PROBLEMS AND POSSIBLE
LINT GRADE ISSUES. HAYFIELDS WERE SHOWING SOME REGROWTH AND
ANOTHER CUTTING MAY BE IN THE CARDS. LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES WERE
IN FAIR TO GOOD CONDITION IN IN MOST OF THE DISTRICT. FORAGE AND
BROWSING AVAILABILITY IN DEER COUNTRY WAS REPORTED AS GOOD. THE
ACORN CROP WAS EXPECTED TO BE GOOD AS WELL. WHITE-TAILED BUCKS
WERE LOSING THE VELVET IN THEIR HORNS...AND THE DEER CROP WAS
PREDICTED TO BE EXCELLENT.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2014 TO MIDNIGHT SEPTEMBER 24, 2014
AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2014       NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL    TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY      26.84       24.54       +2.30         109%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM  18.76       25.14       -6.38          75%
SAN ANTONIO       17.17       23.38       -6.21          73%
DEL RIO            8.61       15.24       -6.63          56%

FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 1.44 INCHES OF
RAIN. THIS IS 0.29 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 1.73 INCHES.
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE IS 82.2 DEGREES.
THIS IS 0.1 OF A DEGREE BELOW THE NORMAL OF 82.1 DEGREES.

FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 1.10 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.34 INCHES BELOW
THE NORMAL OF 2.44 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN
ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE IS 83.2
DEGREES. THIS IS 2.6 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 80.6 DEGREES.

FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 6.98 INCHES
OF RAIN. THIS IS 4.53 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 2.45 INCHES.
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE
IS 81.8 DEGREES. THIS IS 1.0 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 80.8
DEGREES.

FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
HAS RECEIVED 3.21 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.17 INCHES ABOVE
THE NORMAL OF 2.04 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT
THE AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE
IS 80.8 DEGREES. THIS IS 2.1 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 78.7
DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED SEPTEMBER 24 AND VALID OCTOBER 2 THROUGH OCTOBER 8 WAS
INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER 2014 THROUGH DECEMBER
2014...CREATED ON SEPTEMBER 18TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS
FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL. THESE
OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON OCTOBER 16 2014.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS HAVE IMPROVED IN MOST ARES. MOST
LOCATIONS STILL HAVE A DEFICIT FOR THE YEAR TO DATE. THE LACK OF
RAINFALL HAS CAUSED LAKE LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO FALL. WITH
EVAPORATION RATES REMAINING HIGH THESE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUES.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
(76-90 PERCENT) OVER THE COLORADO BASIN...NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT)
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE BASIN. THE SAN ANTONIO...THE MIDDLE
GUADALUPE...MEDINA...FRIO AND NUECES BASINS REPORTED BELOW NORMAL
(10-24 PERCENT) STREAM FLOW AVERAGES. THE UPPER AND LOWER
GUADALUPE BASIN REPORTED MUCH BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT)
STREAM FLOW AVERAGES.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF SEPTEMBER 25TH...

MOST LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                 1078.2           -38.8
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2                976.4           -87.8
CANYON LAKE          909                  898.2           -10.8
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                  775.2           -15.8
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                  986.7           -33.3
LAKE TRAVIS          681                  625.0           -56.0

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 630 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
4 RESTRICTIONS.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER AUTHORITY HAS DECLARED STAGE 4 RESTRICTIONS
WHICH MEANS THE LARGE USERS OF WATER MUST REDUCE THEIR PUMPING BY
40 PERCENT.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT      2013 LEVEL   DEPARTURE
  LEVEL      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2013

 628.4 FT      635.3 FT     -6.9 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT HAS
DECLARED STAGE 2 ALARM DROUGHT STATUS. THIS REQUIRES A 20
PERCENT REDUCTION IN PUMPING.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 4
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 3
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 3
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 2
DEL RIO                   STAGE 1
SEGUIN                    STAGE 1 NORMAL/AWARENESS WATER STAGE

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND OCTOBER 9 2014 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$










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