Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
000
AXUS74 KEWX 212125 AAA
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-052130-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
325 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS UNCHANGED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...

NOVEMBER STARTED OFF WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH COLDER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HAS GREATLY REDUCED EVAPORATION RATES AND
ALLOWED FOR MORE RUNOFF. MANY LOCATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING
DEFICITS FOR THE YEAR TO DATE. RIVERS...CREEKS AND STREAMS HAVE
SHOWN RISES WITH THESE RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS ACROSS THE REGION.
LAKES AND RESERVOIRS HAVE SEEN A REDUCTION IN DECLINES IN
LOCATIONS WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIGHTER OR ABSENT. IN AREAS
THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED RAINFALL LAKES HAVE SHOWN SOME SMALL
INCREASES IN THE LEVELS. AFTER A WARM WEEKEND THE START OF THE
THANKSGIVING WEEK WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE AND
RAINFALL NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER. SHORT TERM
DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE SHOWN SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS WITH THE MAIN
IMPACTS BEING WATER RESTRICTIONS AND A FEW COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS.
RANCHERS ARE REPORTING STOCK TANKS REMAIN LOW DESPITE THE
RAINFALL.
LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A
MULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHT. RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS
ARE VERY LOW AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO SEE
FREQUENT RAINFALL EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EL NINO WATCH...SAYING
THERE IS AT LEAST A 60 PERCENT CHANCE A WEAK TO MODERATE EL NINO
EVENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. EVEN THOUGH LA NINA
AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE
REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER
PATTERNS TOO... SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE
PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR
THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID NOVEMBER 18TH AND ISSUED ON
NOVEMBER 20TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED
UNCHANGED
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO EXTREME
DROUGHT
(D3) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST
LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN MODERATE (D1) TO SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT
STATUS. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY REMAIN IN EXTREME (D3)
DROUGHT STATUS.

CURRENTLY 44 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND THREE PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS LOW TO MODERATE. IF WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT
OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF NOVEMBER 21ST...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR
6 COUNTIES
IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED OUTDOOR
BURN
BANS INCLUDE:

BEXAR
DEWITT
KERR
MEDINA
UVALDE
VAL VERDE

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

ATASCOSA   HAYS
BANDERA    KARNES
BASTROP    KENDALL
BLANCO     KINNEY
BURNET     LAVACA
CALDWELL   LEE
COMAL      LLANO
DIMMIT     MAVERICK
EDWARDS    REAL
FAYETTE    TRAVIS
FRIO       WILLIAMSON
GILLESPIE  WILSON
GONZALES   ZAVALA
GUADALUPE


RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL CITY OR
COUNTY WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING
TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE NOVEMBER 21ST COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED
THE FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

200-300     300-400     400-500

GILLESPIE   BANDERA     ATASCOSA
VAL VERDE   BEXAR       BASTROP
WILLIAMSON  BLANCO      BURNET
            CALDWELL    COMAL
            EDWARDS     DEWITT
            FAYETTE     DIMMIT
            HAYS        FRIO
            KENDALL     GONZALES
            KERR        GUADALUPE
            KINNEY      KARNES
            LAVACA      MAVERICK
            LEE         ZAVALA
            LLANO
            MEDINA
            REAL
            TRAVIS
            UVALDE
            WILSON

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL ON NOVEMBER 18 2014 INDICATED...DRY WEATHER
PERSISTED
THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES
COLDER THAN NORMAL. SOME PARTS OF THE REGION GOT THE FIRST
FREEZE.
HORN FLY POPULATIONS WERE REDUCED. WINTER WHEAT AND OATS REMAINED
IN FAIRLY GOOD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...RAIN DELAYED PLANTING IN
SOME
AREAS. RANGELAND AND PASTURES REMAINED IN OVERALL GOOD
CONDITION...AS DID LIVESTOCK AND WILDLIFE. PRODUCERS WERE
PROVIDING
SUPPLEMENTAL FEED TO LIVESTOCK.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2014 TO MIDNIGHT NOVEMBER 20, 2014
AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2014       NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL    TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY      30.84       31.03       -0.19          99%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM  23.90       32.04       -8.14          75%
SAN ANTONIO       24.66       29.74       -5.08          83%
DEL RIO           15.75       18.61       -2.86          85%

FOR NOVEMBER TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 3.11 INCHES OF RAIN.
THIS IS 2.44 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 0.67 OF AN INCH. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR NOVEMBER TO DATE IS 54.7 DEGREES. THIS
IS 8.0 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 62.7 DEGREES.

FOR NOVEMBER TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 4.91 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 3.25 INCHES ABOVE THE
NORMAL OF 1.66 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR NOVEMBER TO DATE IS 55.1 DEGREES. THIS
IS 7.8 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 62.9 DEGREES.

FOR NOVEMBER TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 2.15 INCHES OF
RAIN. THIS IS 0.08 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 2.07 INCHES.
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR NOVEMBER TO DATE IS
53.1 DEGREES. THIS IS 9.8 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 62.9
DEGREES.

FOR NOVEMBER TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
HAS RECEIVED 3.19 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.11 INCHES ABOVE THE
NORMAL OF 2.08 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE AUSTIN
BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR NOVEMBER TO DATE IS 51.5
DEGREES. THIS IS 8.9 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 60.4 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW
AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED NOVEMBER 20 AND VALID NOVEMBER 28 THROUGH DECEMBER 4 WAS
INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 2014 THROUGH FEBRUARY
2015...CREATED ON NOVEMBER 20TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS
FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL. THESE
OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON DECEMBER 18 2014.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS HAVE IMPROVED IN MOST AREAS...
BUT MOST LOCATIONS STILL HAVE A DEFICIT FOR THE YEAR TO DATE.
THE LACK OF  RAINFALL HAS CAUSED LAKE LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO FALL.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUES.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE AND SAN ANTONIO BASINS. THE COLORADO...THE MIDDLE
GUADALUPE...UPPER NUECES AND MEDINA BASINS REPORTED BELOW NORMAL
(10-24 PERCENT) STREAM FLOW AVERAGES. THE UPPER AND LOWER
GUADALUPE AND FRIO BASINS REPORTED MUCH BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN
10
PERCENT) STREAM FLOW AVERAGES.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF NOVEMBER 21ST...

MOST LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                 1086.4           -30.6
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2                975.3           -88.9
CANYON LAKE          909                  896.9           -12.1
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                  776.6           -14.4
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                  986.2           -33.8
LAKE TRAVIS          681                  621.9           -59.1

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 640 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
3 RESTRICTIONS.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT      2013 LEVEL   DEPARTURE   NOVEMBER   DEPARTURE FROM
  LEVEL      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2013   AVERAGE      AVERAGE

 635.9 FT      641.7 FT     -5.8 FT    666.9 FT     -31.0 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT HAS
DECLARED STAGE 2 ALARM DROUGHT STATUS. THIS REQUIRES A 20
PERCENT REDUCTION IN PUMPING.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 4
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 3
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 3
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 2

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND DECEMBER 5 2014 OR SOONER
IF NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.