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Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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000 AXUS73 KGID 121957 DGTGID KSC089-123-141-147-163-183-NEC001-019-035-047-059-061-065-073-077- 079-081-083-093-099-121-125-129-137-143-163-169-175-181-185- 262000- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 257 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013 ...DESPITE SHORT-TERM IMPROVEMENT...SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES ITS GRIP ON MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS... SYNOPSIS... SINCE THIS STATEMENT WAS LAST ISSUED FIVE WEEKS AGO...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS INDICATED THE FIRST WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT THE NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL MONTHS (THIS COVERAGE AREA ENCOMPASSES 24 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SIX COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS). MOST OF THIS SHORT-TERM IMPROVEMENT WAS REALIZED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE SEVERAL COUNTIES IMPROVED BY ONE DROUGHT CATEGORY...LARGELY DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL DURING APRIL AND VERY EARLY MAY. DESPITE THIS RECENT POSITIVE NEWS...THERE IS STILL A LONG WAY TO GO TO BRING THE ENTIRE AREA COMPLETELY OUT OF SEVERE OR WORSE DROUGHT GIVEN THAT LONGER-TERM IMPACTS TO SUBSOIL MOISTURE AND GROUNDWATER DEFICITS REMAIN INTACT. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT PRECIPITATION TRENDS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW MONTHS WILL HOLD THE KEY AS TO WHETHER SLOW IMPROVEMENTS CONTINUE...OR DROUGHT RE-STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP AT ONE OF THE WORST-POSSIBLE TIMES OF THE YEAR. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR AS OF MAY 7TH...PORTIONS OF THREE OF THE 30 COUNTIES ARE CLASSIFIED IN D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (THE WORST-POSSIBLE CATEGORY)...17 COUNTIES ARE LISTED IN CATEGORY D3 EXTREME DROUGHT...AND 10 COUNTIES ARE IN CATEGORY D2 SEVERE DROUGHT (SEE DETAILED LISTING BELOW). THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS. THE DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT IS ISSUED EACH THURSDAY MORNING AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL DATA THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY. THERE ARE FOUR LEVELS OF DROUGHT: D1 /MODERATE/...D2 /SEVERE/...D3 /EXTREME/...AND D4 /EXCEPTIONAL/. ANOTHER CATEGORY...D0...IS USED TO INDICATE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...WHICH IS ONE STEP BELOW MODERATE DROUGHT. IT IS ALWAYS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT BECAUSE OF HIGHLY LOCAL VARIATIONS IN THE SEVERITY OF DROUGHT...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ONLY PAINTS A GENERALIZED PICTURE OVER A LARGE AREA. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SEVERE WATER SHORTAGES OR CROP FAILURES WITHIN AREAS NOT DESIGNATED AS HAVING SEVERE OR WORSE DROUGHT...JUST AS THERE COULD BE LOCATIONS WITH ADEQUATE WATER SUPPLIES WITHIN DROUGHT-INDICATED AREAS. THE FOLLOWING IS A BREAKDOWN OF COUNTIES BY DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION WITHIN THE NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR AS OF MAY 7TH (PLEASE NOTE THAT IF A COUNTY CONTAINS MORE THAN ONE CATEGORY...THE MOST SEVERE ONE IS NOTED EVEN IF IT CLIPS ONLY A SMALL AREA): EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) FURNAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA..AND ROOKS AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT POSSIBLE IMPACTS INCLUDE EXCEPTIONAL AND WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES...AND SHORTAGES OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS AND WELLS...CREATING WATER EMERGENCIES. EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) VALLEY...GREELEY...SHERMAN...HOWARD...NANCE...DAWSON...BUFFALO...HALL ...GOSPER...PHELPS...KEARNEY...ADAMS...HARLAN...FRANKLIN AND WEBSTER COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND SMITH AND OSBORNE COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...IN EXTREME DROUGHT POSSIBLE IMPACTS INCLUDE MAJOR CROP/PASTURE LOSSES AND WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES OR RESTRICTIONS. SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) MERRICK...POLK...HAMILTON...YORK...CLAY...FILLMORE...NUCKOLLS AND THAYER COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND JEWELL AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...IN SEVERE DROUGHT POSSIBLE IMPACTS INCLUDE THE LIKELIHOOD OF CROP AND PASTURE LOSSES...AND WATER RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUIRED WITH WATER SHORTAGES COMMON. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... FEDERAL...STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS...AS OF MAY 8TH...29 OF 30 COUNTIES IN THE NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA WERE DESIGNATED AS PRIMARY COUNTIES IN A 2013 FEDERAL DROUGHT DISASTER BY THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA)...WITH NUCKOLLS COUNTY INDICATED AS A CONTIGUOUS COUNTY IN THE DECLARATION. AS A RESULT...AG PRODUCERS IN ALL COUNTIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE ELIGIBLE FOR EMERGENCY AID. FOCUSING SPECIFICALLY ON THE SIX NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES...THEY HAVE REMAINED UNDER A STATE-DESIGNATED DROUGHT EMERGENCY SINCE JULY 2012. PUBLIC WATER SUPPLY CONSERVATION RAMPED UP DURING THE LATE SUMMER OF 2012...AND AS OF MAY 2ND THE COMMUNITIES OF LOGAN AND PHILLIPSBURG IN PHILLIPS COUNTY...ALONG WITH PARTS OF THE OSBORNE COUNTY RURAL WATER DISTRICT WERE IN A STAGE 1 WATER WATCH. ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE OF THE BORDER...ON MAY 8TH THE BIG BLUE NATURAL RESOURCES DISTRICT (NRD)...WHICH INCLUDES ALL/PART OF ADAMS...CLAY...FILLMORE..HAMILTON...POLK AND YORK COUNTIES...REPORTED THAT AVERAGE GROUNDWATER LEVELS DECLINED 4.83 FEET SINCE SPRING 2012. ALTHOUGH THIS LEVEL REMAINS 3.03 FEET ABOVE THE GROUNDWATER ALLOCATION TRIGGER LEVEL...IT WAS NONETHELESS THE STEEPEST ONE-YEAR DECLINE SEEN SINCE MEASUREMENTS BEGAN. EXCESSIVE IRRIGATION PUMPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LACK OF RAINFALL IN 2012 WAS THE MAIN REASON FOR THE LARGE DROP. SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...AS OF APRIL 30TH...SOIL MOISTURE VALUES CONTINUED TO BE LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT HAVE BECOME AT LEAST MORE MOIST RELATIVELY SPEAKING OVER THE LAST MONTH. THE GREATEST IMPROVEMENT WAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SOIL MOISTURE WAS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL... FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME. THE DRIEST CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS...PRIMARILY NORTHWEST OF THE TRI CITIES WHERE SOIL MOISTURE WAS IN THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE...WHERE 50 PERCENT IS CONSIDERED NORMAL. 1 PERCENT WOULD INDICATE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS ON RECORD WHILE 100 PERCENT WOULD INDICATE THE WETTEST CONDITIONS ON RECORD. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...ACCORDING TO THE USDA NEBRASKA CROP PROGRESS AND CONDITION REPORT FOR THE WEEK ENDING MAY 5TH...CORN PLANTING PROGRESS WAS ROUGHLY 10 DAYS BEHIND AVERAGE AND PASTURE CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO SHOW LITTLE GROWTH. STATE-AVERAGED TOPSOIL MOISTURE RATED ONLY 36 PERCENT SHORT TO VERY SHORT...A NOTABLE 44 PERCENT IMPROVEMENT OVER 5 WEEKS PRIOR. HOWEVER...SUBSOIL MOISTURE SUPPLIES STILL RATED 84 PERCENT SHORT TO VERY SHORT...ONLY A 12 PERCENT IMPROVEMENT. WHEAT CONDITIONS RATED 49 PERCENT POOR TO VERY POOR...SAME AS FIVE WEEKS AGO. HAY AND FORAGE SUPPLIES RATED 70 PERCENT SHORT TO VERY SHORT...11 PERCENT WORSE THAN FIVE WEEKS AGO...AND STOCK WATER SUPPLIES RATED 21 PERCENT SHORT TO VERY SHORT...A 15 PERCENT IMPROVEMENT. PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITION RATED 70 PERCENT POOR TO VERY POOR. TO THE SOUTH IN KANSAS...THE USDA CROP PROGRESS AND CONDITION REPORT FOR THE WEEK ENDING MAY 5TH INDICATED THAT TOPSOIL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL DISTRICT CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...NOW RATING ONLY 15 PERCENT SHORT TO VERY SHORT AND 82 PERCENT ADEQUATE...VERSUS FIVE WEEKS AGO WHEN IT WAS 30 PERCENT SHORT TO VERY SHORT. HOWEVER...SUBSOIL MOISTURE STILL HAD CONSIDERABLE ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT RATING 63 PERCENT SHORT TO VERY SHORT...ALTHOUGH THIS WAS A 20 PERCENT IMPROVEMENT SINCE LATE MARCH. THE STATE-AVERAGED WHEAT CROP RATED 40 PERCENT POOR TO VERY POOR AND ONLY 27 PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT. STATE-AVERAGED RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITIONS RATED 62 PERCENT POOR TO VERY POOR...A 17 PERCENT IMPROVEMENT VERSUS FIVE WEEKS AGO. HAY AND FORAGE SUPPLIES EXHIBITED LITTLE CHANGE...RATING 71 PERCENT SHORT TO VERY SHORT. STOCK WATER SUPPLIES HAD IMPROVED SOMEWHAT IN RECENT WEEKS...BUT WERE STILL 48 PERCENT SHORT TO VERY SHORT. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...AS OF APRIL 29TH...FIRE MANAGEMENT AGENCIES INDICATED THAT ALL 24 NEBRASKA COUNTIES IN THE NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA EXHIBITED FUEL CHARACTERISTICS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH...WHILE FUEL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE SIX KANSAS COUNTIES WERE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE. PLEASE NOTE THAT THESE FUEL CHARACTERISTICS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AT ANY TIME BASED ON SHORT-TERM PRECIPITATION TRENDS. CLIMATE SUMMARY... ALTHOUGH A SERIOUS DROUGHT SITUATION PERSISTS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAVE SIGNALED AN OVERALL ENCOURAGING TREND IN PRECIPITATION...REPLACING AN EXTREMELY DRY PATTERN THAT DEFINED MUCH OF THE SUMMER AND FALL OF 2012. FOCUSING SOLELY ON PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS CALENDAR YEAR (SINCE JANUARY 1ST)...MOST OF THE 30-COUNTY AREA HAS MEASURED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 75 AND 115 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE TABLE BELOW. ALTHOUGH THIS NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS BY NO MEANS PUT AN END TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS...IT HAS AT LEAST EASED THE SEVERITY SOMEWHAT. SOME OF THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS SO FAR THIS YEAR HAVE GENERALLY FOCUSED IN TWO SEPARATE AREAS...ONE CORRIDOR NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA...AND ANOTHER INCLUDING MUCH OF SMITH...OSBORNE...AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ONE OF THE WETTEST OFFICIAL OBSERVATION SITES WITHIN THE AREA SO FAR THIS YEAR IS NEAR GENOA IN EASTERN NANCE COUNTY...WITH 10.15 INCHES...OR 134 PERCENT OF NORMAL. IN CONTRAST...ONE OF THE DRIEST SITES SO FAR THIS YEAR IS LOGAN IN PHILLIPS COUNTY KANSAS WITH ONLY 4.41 INCHES...OR 74 PERCENT OF NORMAL. STARTING WITH THE MOST RECENT PRECIPITATION TREND THROUGH THE FIRST FEW WEEKS OF MAY...BY FAR THE MOST FORTUNATE AREA HAS FOCUSED IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ...WHERE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1-2+ INCHES HAS FALLEN IN SEVERAL COUNTIES. HOWEVER...MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAS MISSED OUT ON APPRECIABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SO FAR THIS MONTH...WITH MOST AREAS ONLY REALIZING BETWEEN ONE-THIRD AND TWO-THIRDS OF NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE MAY 1ST-12TH PERIOD. DURING APRIL...AT LEAST 60 PERCENT OF THE 30-COUNTY AREA BENEFITED FROM ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL...AND EVEN THOSE AREAS THAT CHECKED IN BELOW NORMAL WERE TYPICALLY ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THANKS LARGELY TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EVENING OF APRIL 8TH INTO THE EARLY MORNING OF APRIL 9TH...THE HIGHEST MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 3-5+ INCHES WERE CONCENTRATED WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST CORRIDOR RUNNING ROUGHLY 15 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM NEAR HOLDREGE-RAVENNA-FULLERTON. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS WELL-TIMED AND WELL-PLACED...AS MANY OF THESE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES HAD BEEN THE OVERALL-DRIEST WITHIN THE ENTIRE AREA SINCE SUMMER 2012. THE RELATIVELY WET APRIL IN MUCH OF THE AREA FOLLOWED ON THE HEELS OF WHAT WAS A FAIRLY DRY MARCH. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR RUNNING FROM NEAR SMITH CENTER KS...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HASTINGS...CLAY CENTER...GENEVA AND YORK NEBRASKA AREAS...ROUGHLY 70 PERCENT OF THE 30-COUNTY AREA SAW BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS...HARLAN...GOSPER...DAWSON AND ROOKS KS. DURING THE METEOROLOGICAL WINTER SEASON OF DECEMBER-FEBRUARY... PRECIPITATION TRENDED FAIRLY WELL THANKS PRIMARILY TO FOUR SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORMS...EACH OF WHICH DUMPED SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN ALL OR PARTS OF THE AREA. THE FIRST OF THESE SNOW STORMS STRUCK FROM DEC. 19TH-20TH...ANOTHER ON DEC. 31ST...THE NEXT FROM JAN. 29TH-30TH... AND THE FOUR AND LARGEST EVENT FROM FEB. 20TH-21ST. IN DECEMBER...THE MAJORITY OF THE 30-COUNTY AREA RECEIVED AT LEAST 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH...CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL DECEMBER PRECIPITATION GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES. IN TERMS OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT...THE LATE FEBRUARY WINTER STORM WAS THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. NEARLY ALL 30 COUNTIES RECEIVED AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW FROM...AND WITH MUCH HIGHER TOTALS OF GENERALLY 12-20 INCHES BLANKETING MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND ADJACENT NEBRASKA COUNTIES ALONG THE STATE LINE. FOR PLACES SUCH AS SMITH CENTER KANSAS...15.6 INCHES OF SNOW RESULTED IN THE HIGHEST STORM TOTAL AMOUNT ON RECORD DATING BACK TO 1910. AT GRAND ISLAND...THE METEOROLOGICAL WINTER SEASON OF DECEMBER-FEBRUARY TIED FOR THE 20TH-WETTEST WINTER ON RECORD OUT OF 118 YEARS. TRACING THE ONGOING DROUGHT SITUATION BACK TO ITS INITIAL STAGES...THE MARCH-MAY 2012 TIME FRAME FEATURED THE WARMEST SPRING SEASON ON RECORD ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS ALLOWED THE GROWING SEASON TO GET OFF TO AN UNUSUALLY EARLY START...AND IN FACT THE 2012 GROWING SEASON WAS AMONG THE LONGEST...IF NOT THE LONGEST ON RECORD. SERIOUS DROUGHT PROBLEMS DID NOT REALLY TAKE HOLD UNTIL JUNE AND JULY 2012...WHEN THE COMBINATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WELL BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL ARRIVED JUST IN TIME FOR THE PEAK CROP GROWING SEASON. DURING THE METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER SEASON OF JUNE-AUGUST 2012...GRAND ISLAND RECORDED ITS DRIEST SUMMER OUT OF 117 YEARS ON RECORD...MEASURING ONLY 2.37 INCHES...WHICH WAS 8.45 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THE 2012 CALENDAR YEAR WENT DOWN AS ONE OF THE TOP 10 OR 20-DRIEST YEARS ON RECORD. FOR A FEW SPOTS INCLUDING GRAND ISLAND...IT WAS IN FACT THE OUTRIGHT-DRIEST CALENDAR YEAR ON RECORD...AS CENTRAL NEBRASKA REGIONAL AIRPORT ONLY MEASURED 11.55 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION... ECLIPSING THE PREVIOUS LOW POINT OF 12.01 INCHES WAY BACK IN 1940. THE TABLE BELOW HIGHLIGHTS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL/PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR A FEW DOZEN SITES THROUGHOUT THE NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN 1-MAY 10). THESE DATA ARE PRIMARILY FROM NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...ALONG WITH A FEW AUTOMATED AIRPORT SITES: LOCATION PRECIP NORTH CENTRAL KS JAN 1-MAY 10 NORMAL DEPARTURE % NORMAL -------- -------- ------ --------- -------- ALTON 2SW 7.30 6.78 +0.52 108 BELOIT 7.91 7.09 +0.82 112 BURR OAK 6.12 6.98 -0.86 88 LOGAN 4.41 5.97 -1.56 74 NATOMA 7.95 6.90 +1.05 115 PHILLIPSBURG 5.42 7.05 -1.63 77 PLAINVILLE 4WNW 6.81 6.48 +0.33 105 SMITH CENTER 7.95 6.47 +1.48 123 LOCATION PRECIP SOUTH CENTRAL NE JAN 1-MAY 10 NORMAL DEPARTURE % NORMAL -------- -------- ------ --------- -------- CAMBRIDGE 4.77 5.63 -0.86 85 LEXINGTON 6SSE 5.80 5.74 +0.06 101 CLAY CENTER 6ESE 5.72 6.69 -0.97 86 ELWOOD 8S 5.06 5.78 -0.72 88 FRANKLIN 5.31 6.75 -1.44 79 GENOA 2W 10.15 7.59 +2.56 134 GENEVA 6.89 7.17 -0.28 96 GOTHENBURG 5.76 5.76 0.00 100 GRAND ISLAND ARPT 7.79 6.82 +0.97 114 GREELEY 6.24 6.83 -0.59 91 HASTINGS AIRPORT 6.98 6.82 +0.16 102 HEBRON 7.42 7.97 -0.55 93 HOLDREGE 6.60 6.72 -0.12 98 KEARNEY AIRPORT 7.52 6.40 +1.12 118 MINDEN 5.73 6.21 -0.48 92 NELSON 4.77 7.20 -2.43 66 ORD AIRPORT 6.12 5.93 +0.19 103 OSCEOLA 7.40 7.66 -0.26 97 RAVENNA 7.58 6.60 +0.98 115 RED CLOUD 4.76 6.49 -1.73 73 ST.PAUL 7.69 6.81 +0.88 113 SUPERIOR 4E 7.88 7.42 +0.46 106 YORK 3N 7.00 8.47 -1.47 83 FROM THIS TABLE...IT IS READILY APPARENT THAT MOST OF THE 30-COUNTY AREA HAS MEASURED BETWEEN 75 AND 115 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS YEAR. FOR MUCH MORE INFORMATION ON MONTHLY AND SEASONAL PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE DATA FOR THE NWS HASTINGS COVERAGE AREA...PLEASE REFER TO THE MONTHLY CLIMATE WEB STORIES ROUTINELY POSTED AT THE TOP OF THE NWS HASTINGS WEB SITE AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF MAY...THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE AREA WILL FINALLY EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER. AT THIS POINT...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AROUND THE 15TH OF THE MONTH...AND WHILE THIS RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY FLATTEN OUT TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH...THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ZONAL AND SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE 20TH OF THE MONTH...WHEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE LATEST 6-10 DAY FORECAST FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR AN UNUSUALLY HIGH CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE TIME PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE ANTICIPATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...THE SAME 6-10 DAY FORECAST FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PERIOD. THESE INCREASED CHANCES FOR BOTH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION EXTEND INTO THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...WHICH IS VALID FROM MAY 19TH-25TH. THE LATEST THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...VALID FOR THE ENTIRE MONTHS OF MAY...JUNE AND JULY...INDICATE THAT THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION...WITH A DECENT BIAS...AROUND 75 PERCENT...FOR EITHER NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE GENERALLY POSITIVE OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MAY AND THE GENERALLY NEUTRAL OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE THREE WETTEST MONTHS OF THE YEAR...NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK INDICATES THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW AT LEAST SOME IMPROVEMENT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE END OF JULY. THESE LONG RANGE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON THE OUTPUT FROM NUMEROUS FORECAST MODELS AS WELL AS FORECASTER EXPERTISE WHICH TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION ONGOING GLOBAL AND TROPICAL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC STATES...RECENT TRENDS IN OBSERVED DATA AS WELL AS SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE FORECASTS CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS (CPC) WEB SITE AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/FORECASTS HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... AS OF MAY 11TH...MOST RIVERS ARE NOW RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...WHICH IS A NOTICEABLE IMPROVEMENT IN STREAM FLOW DUE TO RECENT SPRING RAINS. THE REPUBLICAN RIVER WAS EVEN RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL AT CAMBRIDGE AND ORLEANS...WHICH MAY IN PART BE DUE TO INCREASED RELEASES FROM UPSTREAM RESERVOIRS IN ADDITION TO RECENT RAINFALL. THE NORTH FORK OF THE SOLOMON RIVER WAS ANOTHER SITE THAT WAS RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. THE SITES RUNNING BELOW NORMAL WERE THE SOLOMON RIVER BELOW WACONDA RESERVOIR...THE LITTLE BLUE RIVER...AND THE PLATTE RIVER. ALTHOUGH THE PLATTE RIVER IS STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...IT IS INCHING CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH INCREASING STREAMFLOW OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED SOMETIME IN JUNE...OR AS CHANGING CONDITIONS WARRANT. && RELATED WEB SITES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... TO REPORT EFFECTS OF THE DROUGHT IN YOUR AREA...PLEASE GO TO THE DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER AT: HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU AND CLICK ON SUBMIT A REPORT. INFORMATION FOR THE MEDIA MAY BE FOUND AT: HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/NEWSOUTREACH/INFORMATIONFORMEDIA.ASPX ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU NOAA DROUGHT PORTAL HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV HIGH PLAINS REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER HTTP://HPRCC.UNL.EDU NEBRASKA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE HTTP://WWW.CLIMATE.UNL.EDU KANSAS CLIMATE AND DROUGHT UPDATE FROM KANSAS WATER OFFICE HTTP://KWO.ORG/REPORTS_PUBLICATIONS/DROUGHT.HTM USDA WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER/PUBS/INDEX.HTM NWS RIVER INFORMATION HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS USGS RIVER INFORMATION HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS HTTP://WWW.NWK.USACE.ARMY.MIL ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6365 NORTH OSBORNE DRIVE WEST HASTINGS, NE 68901-9163 PHONE: 402-462-4287 E-MAIL: W-GID.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV $$ PFANNKUCH/ROSSI/WESELY
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