Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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000
AXGM70 PGUM 140216
DGTGUM
GUZ001>004-210200-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
PMZ161-PMZ171>174-PMZ181-210200-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-MAJURO-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1200 PM CHST THU JUL 14 2016

...RAINFALL PATTERNS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS MICRONESIA...

...THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED STATEMENT FOR THIS DROUGHT EVENT...

SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH DROUGHT EFFECTS LINGER FOR THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS AND THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...RAINFALL HAS
BEEN TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL RECENTLY.

THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ALSO
INDICATES IMPROVEMENTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS MICRONESIA.
RECOVERY TIME MAY STILL BE NEEDED EVEN WHERE SUBSTANTIAL RAINS HAVE
FALLEN...BUT DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED FOR MOST ISLANDS OF
MICRONESIA.

ONE OF THE STRONGEST EL NINO EVENTS IN RECORDED HISTORY HAS WEAKENED
ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. A FINAL EL NINO ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) WHILE A LA NINA WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT. LATEST INFORMATION AND CLIMATE MODELS INDICATE
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE NOW PRESENT AND THE PATTERN COULD SHIFT
TO LA NINA STATUS LATE THIS SUMMER OR IN THE FALL MONTHS.

DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED AT KAPINGAMARANGI ATOLL AND
COULD DEVELOP AT NUKUORO ATOLL IN SOUTHERN POHNPEI STATE. AS THE LA
NINA DEVELOPS...RAINFALL FOR KAPINGAMARANGI AND NUKUORO WILL BECOME
LESS. BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS FOR ANOTHER FEW WEEKS. GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS HAVE BEEN RECEIVING ADEQUATE RAINFALL RECENTLY AND
BENEFICIAL RAINS HAVE FALLEN AT MOST LOCATIONS.

SOME LOCATIONS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONSERVE WATER FOR A FEW MORE WEEKS
OR UNTIL THE NEXT MAJOR RAINFALL EVENT OF 2 INCHES OR MORE. BASED ON
THEIR RAINFALL REPORTS. THESE WILL BE MENTIONED BELOW.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS....

THE MARIANA ISLANDS...

THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...
THE CNMI REMAINS IN THE EFFECTS OF SEVERE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 2
OF 4) BUT RAINFALL IN JULY HAS IMPROVED. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. WATER SUPPLIES STILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AND WATER CONSERVATION IS ENCOURAGED. WATER WELL
SUPPLIES ON SAIPAN SHOULD BE IMPROVING.

GUAM...
GUAM WEATHER HAS IMPROVED WITH ADEQUATE RAINFALL AND RAINFALL SHOULD
TREND CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE COMING WEEKS.

THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS DECLARED A
STATE OF DISASTER DUE TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS THERE. MANY ISLANDS HAVE
REQUESTED AND OBTAINED ASSISTANCE. THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS
REMAIN IN DROUGHT...BUT RAINFALL HAS IMPROVED FOR MOST OF THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS RECENTLY. BASED ON RAINFALL REPORTS JALUIT ATOLL
SHOULD CONSERVE WATER FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS OR UNTIL THE NEXT HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT.

NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...
UTIRIK...RONGELAP...BIKINI AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS HAVE RECEIVED GOOD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RECENTLY BUT THE EFFECTS OF DROUGHT WILL PERSIST
FOR A WHILE. SATELLITE IMAGES AND COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL
PATTERNS HAVE IMPROVED. WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE STILL A GOOD
IDEA TO AVOID DEPLETION OF CATCHMENT WATER. WELLS SHOULD STILL BE
MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE SALINITY. DRINKING WATER AND REVERSE OSMOSIS
SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN TRANSPORTED TO SEVERAL NORTHERN ISLANDS OF THE
REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS.

SEVERE DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS LIKELY OCCURRED ACROSS THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD
STILL BE MONITORED...AND FOOD ASSISTANCE COULD BE NECESSARY IF THE
DAMAGE TO PLANTS AND FRUITS IS IRREVERSIBLE.

FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA...
ADEQUATE RAINFALL HAS RETURNED TO THE FSM AND DROUGHT HAS ABATED.
BASED ON RAINFALL REPORTS...ULITHI IN YAP STATE...POLOWAT IN CHUUK
STATE AND PINGELAP IN POHNPEI STATE SHOULD CONSERVE WATER FOR THE
NEXT FEW WEEKS OR UNTIL THE NEXT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT.

KAPINGAMARANGI IN POHNPEI STATE IS GETTING DRY AND COULD SLIP INTO A
PROLONGED DROUGHT AS LA NINA BEGINS TO DEVELOP. NUKUORO WILL ALSO BE
MONITORED FOR DRYING CONDITIONS.

REPUBLIC OF PALAU...
ALL LOCATIONS IN PALAU HAVE RECEIVED ADEQUATE RAINFALL AND THE
COUNTRY IS NO LONGER IN A DROUGHT.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS TRANSITIONED TO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS AND LA
NINA IS LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE THIS SUMMER OR DURING THE FALL. SOME
PERIODS OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE FOR MICRONESIA DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS BUT RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY RETURN CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

LATEST AVAILABLE RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                FEB    MAR   APR    MAY   JUNE    JULY    % NORMAL
                                                  (1-12)
KOROR WSO       2.55   2.68  9.90  13.55  16.25    3.80    54
PELELIU         1.93   2.63  6.35  10.75  10.90    5.90   121
YAP WSO         1.77   0.70  2.56   8.90   6.46    2.41    41
ULITHI          2.61   0.62  3.24   5.55   4.88    2.30    46
WOLEAI          0.22   0.58  2.41   7.61  12.28    6.95   132
GUAM INTL AP    3.63   1.63  1.31   1.80   7.73    3.20    70
ROTA            2.07   4.36  0.91   1.97   2.54    2.59    58
TINIAN          1.61   3.00  0.97   0.57   1.63    2.80    64
SAIPAN          2.72   3.29  1.78   2.07   2.05    2.59    75
CHUUK           2.59   7.08 10.73  12.11  10.61    4.55   103
FANANU          1.74   0.61  4.26   8.84   8.65    7.37   173
ONUON           2.56   0.36  4.05   9.16   6.10    4.45    89
PULUWAT         4.81   1.24  2.71   7.65   3.82    2.03    50
LUKUNOR         5.46   7.70 12.83  11.92   8.49    2.74    43
POHNPEI         4.64   5.76 11.01  16.06  21.18    4.67    75
PINGELAP        2.65   1.52  5.39   8.52   5.02    1.32    26
NUKUORO        11.60   8.77  7.23  25.33  10.33    3.24    76
KAPINGAMARANGI  6.04  10.02 12.78   4.07   3.30    1.94    38
KOSRAE         14.56   5.17  4.05  12.70  18.99    6.08    98
KWAJALEIN       0.46   1.05  1.13   3.80   9.81    5.43   131
JALUIT          3.69   1.63  4.52   6.86   4.32    3.13    59
WOTJE           0.05   0.28  0.16   9.27   6.21    6.49   361
UTIRIK          0.94   0.77  1.86   0.73   3.30    7.87   373
MAJURO          3.17   1.33  2.05  11.12   7.27    3.22    76

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
ON A LARGE REGIONAL SCALE...THE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN HAS CHANGED TO A
MOIST PATTERN AND SEASONAL CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SOME DROUGHT EFFECTS WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
PARTS OF MICRONESIA AND THE RAINFALL PATTERNS WILL BE MONITORED
CAREFULLY IN THE COMING WEEKS.

THE MARIANA ISLANDS...

THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE ONE OR TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
ROTA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH JULY.

GUAM...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE ADEQUATE RAINFALL OF ABOUT 2 INCHES THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS...WITH NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL THROUGH JULY.

THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...
BENEFICIAL RAINS HAVE FALLEN RECENTLY AND DROUGHT EFFECTS WILL
DIMINISH. FOR NORTHERN AREAS NEAR UTIRIK...RONGELAP...BIKINI AND
ENEWETAK ATOLLS...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ONE TO THREE INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

PEOPLE SHOULD MAINTAIN CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT BECAUSE HEAVIER SHOWERS
WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER. EVEN WITH MORE
RAINFALL...SOME DROUGHT EFFECTS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKS AND RECOVERY WILL TAKE MORE RAINFALL AND MORE TIME.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL WILL BE ADEQUATE THROUGH THE NEXT
10 DAYS AND RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR MAJURO...AILINGALAPLAP...
JALUIT AND OTHER ATOLLS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

THE FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA...
THE FOLLOWING ARE SELECTED LOCATIONS STILL AT RISK FOR DRY WEATHER
AND WATER CONSERVATION IS STILL RECOMMENDED.

KAPINGAMARANGI IN POHNPEI STATE IS RELATIVELY DRY. COMPUTER MODELS
DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY AND RAINFALL WILL BE VARIABLE DURING THE COMING
WEEKS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE ONE OR TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. NUKUORO SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SHOWERS FOR ABOUT TWO
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

ULITHI IN YAP STATE HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY BUT COMPUTER MODELS SHOW
IMPROVING RAINFALL WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

POLOWAT IN CHUUK STATE SHOULD HAVE DECENT RAINFALL IN THE COMING
WEEKS AND COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

PINGELAP IN POHNPEI STATE WILL BE DRY IN THE NEAR TERM BUT RAINFALL
SHOULD IMPROVE NEXT WEEK WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED DURING THE 5 TO
10 DAY TIME-FRAME.

REPUBLIC OF PALAU...
PALAU WILL HAVE ADEQUATE BUT VARIABLE RAINFALL DURING THE COMING
WEEKS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR THE
POST-PEAK EL NINO DROUGHT OF 2016. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO LOCAL
MEDIA OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL
DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT
INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

NWS WFO GUAM...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT.

PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...
JULY 11TH CORAL REEF BLEACHING WARNING AREA IS FARTHER NORTH OVER
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. THE WATCH AREA IS EVEN FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AND
TARAWA ACROSS THE DATE LINE. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE NOAA WEBSITE
AT HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION CENTER IN ASHEVILLE NORTH
CAROLINA...PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL
RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...
UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICES AT MAJURO...POHNPEI...CHUUK...YAP AND KOROR AND THE USAID
SUBREGIONAL OFFICE MAJURO AND INTERNATIONAL OFFICE FOR MIGRATION
OFFICES IN POHNPEI...CHUUK...YAP AND MAJURO.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...

WFO TIYAN GUAM
3232 HUENEME RD
BARRIGADA GU 96913
PHONE: 671-472-0946
W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

GUARD/SIMPSON

$$


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