Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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AXGM70 PGUM 280307
DGTGUM
PMZ181-120200-
MAJURO-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1245 PM CHST THU SEP 28 2017

...FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS FINALLY GETTING
NEEDED RAINFALL RELIEF..FINAL DROUGHT STATEMENT...

SYNOPSIS...ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OR WILL GIVE WAY TO
LA NINA OR LA NINA-LIKE CONDITIONS DURING THE LAST THREE MONTHS OF
THE YEAR. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A LA NINA WATCH
INDICATING THAT LA NINA CONDITIONS COULD SOON DEVELOP AND LAST AT
LEAST FIVE CONSECUTIVE MONTHS. SINCE THE EVENT WILL LIKELY BE WEAK
OR MODERATE...THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE RATHER MINOR. TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS...BUT
SHOULD VACILLATE BETWEEN WEAK AND MODERATE INTENSITIES THROUGH THE
FALL. SHORT PERIODS OF MONSOON WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINS AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY AFFECT WESTERN MICRONESIA AND
BRIEFLY PENETRATE INTO CENTRAL MICRONESIA IN EARLY TO MID OCTOBER.
THE LAST EPISODE AFFECTED THE MARIANA ISLANDS DURING 8-10 SEPTEMBER
AND IT WAS WEAK.

SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED RECENTLY BUT SOMEWHAT DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY AT UTIRIK. THE DEVELOPMENT AND WESTWARD
PROPAGATION OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) HAS PERSISTED AND CONTINUES TO INDUCE
AREAS OF PERIODIC CONVECTIVE RAINFALL.

THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
SHOWS THAT UTIRIK OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS REMAINS AT SHORT-
TERM AND LONG-TERM EXTREME DROUGHT STATUS (DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4).
ENEWETAK...AILUK AND OTHER ISLANDS NORTH OF 10N ARE LIKELY AT THE
SAME EXTREME DROUGHT LEVEL. ALL OF THESE ARE IMPROVING. WOTJE AND
NEARBY ATOLLS HAVE IMPROVED TO A RATING OF D-NOTHING. KWAJALEIN
RECEIVED 5.60 INCHES OF RAIN ON 10 SEPTEMBER. KWAJALEIN AND NEARBY
ATOLLS REMAIN IN A RATING OF D-NOTHING.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

MARSHALL ISLANDS...

FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS... SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE LAST FEW
WEEKS SHOWED PERIODS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND MORE PERSISTENT TRADE-
WIND SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N SUCH AS UTIRIK... RONGELAP...
BIKINI...AILUK...AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND SHOULD SEE
IMPROVED RAINFALL IN OCTOBER.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS INDICATE
THAT CURRENT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS COULD TRANSITION TO LA NINA
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. CLIMATE MODELS ARE FAVORING
THIS TRANSITION...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE NEARLY EQUAL FOR REMAINING
IN THE ENSO-NEUTRAL PATTERN.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                  AUG (1-30)    SEP       SEP     SEP %
                               (1-27)     NORMAL  NORMAL
WOTJE              1.26        12.11      6.27    193
UTIRIK             4.59         3.80      8.83     43
AILINGALAPLAP      6.20         9.28      8.78    106
JALUIT             5.22         6.68      8.77     76
MAJURO            13.00        19.71     10.83    182
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE    6.28        20.90      9.80    213

                  JAN   FEB   MAR   APR   MAY   JUN    JUL    JUL %
                                                      (1-31) NORMAL

WOTJE             0.08  4.48  0.99  5.23  1.14  8.86   5.55    124
UTIRIK            0.63  MSG   MSG  TRACE  1.38  1.60   1.74     36
AILINGALAPLAP    12.75  7.39  7.76  9.82  2.82  9.45   7.91     70
JALUIT            9.94 13.50 11.23  9.58  2.33  5.41   8.56     73
MAJURO           17.65  7.59 13.07 10.36  4.93 13.03  12.52    105
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE   9.00  5.60  1.07  3.44  5.20 10.80   6.91     68


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THE SUN IS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR
NOW. THUS...A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL MODERATE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS. EVAPORATION CAUSED BY TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE OCEAN
SHOULD ALSO HELP OFFSET AND MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO... COMPUTER MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON
THE 5-DAY AND 10-DAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH ONE MODEL INDICATING AS
MUCH AS 100 PERCENT MORE RAIN THAN THE OTHER. RAINFALL FOR AREAS
NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE (ENEWETAK TO UTIRIK) IS EXPECTED TO BE
ABOUT ONE INCH THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. RAINFALL SOUTH OF 10 NORTH (BUT NORTH
OF 8N)KWAJALEIN TO AILINGALAPLAP TO WOTJE) SHOULD BE ABOUT 1.5 TO
2.0 INCHES FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND FROM 1.75 TO 2.5 INCHES FOR THE
NEXT 10 DAYS. MAJURO AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS SHOULD RECEIVE 2.0 TO 3.0 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...THE CORAL BLEACH WARNING AREA OVER
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A CORAL REEF BLEACHING
WATCH AREA. THE AREA FROM GUAM TO SAIPAN STILL REMAINS AT THE
HIGHEST ALERT LEVEL (2). NORTHERN CHUUK AND YAP STATESS HAVE BEEN
ADDED TO ALERT LEVEL 2. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE NOAA/NESDIS
WEBSITE AT HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FINAL DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENT. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION
OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...NWS WFO
GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT
CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE PACIFIC
ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/



ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM
...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICES AT MAJURO AND AT WENO CHUUK...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL
OFFICES...THE NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM
AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...
WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-
0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

GUARD/W. AYDLETT

$$


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