Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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000
AXGM70 PGUM 140058
DGTGUM
PMZ181-280200-
MAJURO-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1100 AM CHST THU SEP 14 2017

...FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS GETTING SOME
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL RELIEF BUT STILL DRIER THAN EXPECTED...

SYNOPSIS...
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
YEAR. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE LA NINA OR LA NINA-
LIKE CONDITIONS THE LAST THREE MONTHS OF THE YEAR...BUT THE IMPACTS
SHOULD BE RATHER MINOR. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
MICRONESIA THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS...BUT SHOULD VACILLATE BETWEEN
WEAK AND MODERATE INTENSITIES. DURING LATE AUGUST THROUGH SEPTEMBER
AND EARLY OCTOBER...PERIODS OF MONSOON WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINS AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY DOMINATE WESTERN MICRONESIA AND
COULD PENETRATE INTO CENTRAL MICRONESIA. ONE SUCH WEAK EPISODE
AFFECTED THE MARIANA ISLANDS DURING 8-10 SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED RECENTLY BUT DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY AT UTIRIK AND
WOTJE. NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MARSHALL ISLANDS...BUT LIKE THE REST OF
MICRONESIA...THESE ISLANDS HAVE HAD SUFFICIENT RAINFALL TO AVERT
DROUGHT. JALUIT HAS BEEN RATHER DRY AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
IT.

THE DEVELOPMENT AND WESTWARD PROPAGATION OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IN THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) HAS
INTENSIFIED...INDUCING LARGE AREAS OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL.


THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
SHOWS UTIRIK OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS HAS BEEN REDUCED FROM
ITS SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT STATUS (DROUGHT
LEVEL 4 OF 4) TO EXTREME DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4).
ENEWETAK...AILUK AND OTHER ISLANDS NORTH OF 10N ARE LIKELY AT THE
SAME EXTREME DROUGHT LEVEL. WOTJE AND NEARBY ATOLLS REMAIN IN LONG-
TERM EXTREME DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4). WOTJE DID RECEIVE 3.10
INCHES OF RAIN ON 6 SEPTEMBER. KWAJALEIN AND NEARBY ATOLLS REMAIN IN
A RATING OF D-NOTHING.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

MARSHALL ISLANDS...

FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS...
SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE LAST FEW DAYS SHOWED DEEP CONVECTION AND
MORE PERSISTENT TRADE-WIND SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
MARSHALL ISLANDS. ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N SUCH AS UTIRIK...
RONGELAP...BIKINI...AILUK...AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND
WILL SEE IMPROVED RAINFALL IN SEPTEMBER. WHILE WOTJE HAS BEEN
DRIER THAN EXPECTED...RAINFALL IS IMPROVING.

OTHER ATOLLS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...
SOME PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO AFFECT KWAJALEIN...WOTHO...
MALOELAP...UJAE...LIKIEP AND NEIGHBORING ATOLLS BUT FUTURE RAINFALL
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS INDICATE
THAT CURRENT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST TO THE END OF THE
YEAR. CLIMATE MODELS ARE FAVORING A CONTINUATION OF ENSO-NEUTRAL
CONDITIONS BUT WITH SOME INCREASED PROBABILITY OF A DEVELOPING LA
NINA PATTERN. EARLIER...MODELS SUGGESTED A DEVELOPING EL NINO
PATTERN...BUT THAT POSSIBILITY IS DECREASING.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                  AUG (1-30)   SEP       SEP     SEP %
                               (1-13)   NORMAL  NORMAL
WOTJE             1.26         5.08      3.25    156
UTIRIK            4.59         2.53      4.58     55
AILINGALAPLAP     6.20         2.95      4.55     65
JALUIT            5.22         3.10      4.72     66
MAJURO           13.00         5.00      5.01    100
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE   6.28        10.08      4.72    214

                  JAN   FEB   MAR   APR   MAY   JUN    JUL    JUL %
                                                      (1-31) NORMAL

WOTJE             0.08  4.48  0.99  5.23  1.14  8.86   5.55    124
UTIRIK            0.63  MSG   MSG  TRACE  1.38  1.60   1.74     36
AILINGALAPLAP    12.75  7.39  7.76  9.82  2.82  9.45   7.91     70
JALUIT            9.94 13.50 11.23  9.58  2.33  5.41   8.56     73
MAJURO           17.65  7.59 13.07 10.36  4.93 13.03  12.52    105
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE   9.00  5.60  1.07  3.44  5.20 10.80   6.91     68


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE SEASONAL MOVEMENT OF THE SUN WILL RANGE FROM DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
IN LATE AUGUST FOR NORTHERN AREAS OF MICRONESIA TO DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
IN MID-SEPTEMBER FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. A MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND MODERATE THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. EVAPORATION CAUSED BY
TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE OCEAN SHOULD ALSO HELP OFFSET AND
MODERATE THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...
COMPUTER MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
VARIABLE. RAINFALL FOR AREAS NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE (ENEWETAK TO
UTIRIK) ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM TWO TO THREE INCHES THROUGH THE
NEXT 10 DAYS. RAINFALL SOUTH OF 10 NORTH (BUT NORTH OF 8N)KWAJALEIN
TO AILINGALAPLAP TO WOTJE) SHOULD BE TWO TO THREE AND A HALF INCHES
FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MAJURO AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MARSHALL ISLANDS SHOULD RECEIVE TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL
DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT INDICATES THAT UTIRIK...ENEWETAK...
AILUK...WOTJE...AND MEJIT HAVE OPERATING REVERSE OSMOSIS (RO)
SYSTEMS. DESPITE THESE SYSTEMS...LOCAL VEGETATION AND FOOD SOURCES
WILL SUFFER FROM THE DROUGHT. LOCAL WELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SALTY.
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED GUIDANCE FOR WATER
CONSERVATION AND GOOD HYGIENE.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED 28 SEPTEMBER 2017. AT THAT TIME WE WILL RE-ASSESS THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION
OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...NWS WFO
GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT
CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE PACIFIC
ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...
THE SEVERITY OF CORAL REEF BLEACHING ACROSS THE MARIANA ISLANDS HAS
LIKELY BEEN REDUCED SLIGHTLY BY RECENT MONSOON FLOW AND BY THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THAT BECAME TYPHOON TALIM. DESPITE THIS...THE
AREA FROM GUAM TO SAIPAN STILL REMAINS AT THE HIGHEST ALERT LEVEL
(2). NORTHERN CHUUK AND YAP ISLANDS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO ALERT LEVEL
2. OTHERWISE...CORAL REEF BLEACHING ALERT LEVEL 1 INCLUDES MOST OF
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MICRONESIA . A BLEACH WARNING
EXTENDS OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE
NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM
...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICES AT MAJURO AND AT WENO CHUUK...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL
OFFICES...THE NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM
AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...
WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-
0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

GUARD/M. AYDLETT

$$



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