Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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AXUS74 KLIX 121600
DGTLIX
LAC005-007-033-037-047-051-057-063-071-075-077-087-089-091-093-
095-103-105-109-117-121-125-MSC005-045-047-059-109-113-147-157-
261600-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1000 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2014

...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ONSETTING ALONG THE GULF COAST...

SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF DRY MONTHS OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI HAS PROMPTED A SEVERE DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION FOR THE
MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES AND EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. A MODERATE DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION IS NOTED
OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED OVER
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THESE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE DECLARED BY THE
UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR...A COLLABORATION OF INPUT FROM
STATE CLIMATOLOGISTS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTERS
TASKED WITH MONITORING CONDITIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS WITH REGARDS
TO DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
SHORT TERM IMPACTS ARE MINIMAL DUE TO VEGETATIVE DORMANCY AND
CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL LOW RIVER FLOWS IN AUTUMN AND EARLY
WINTER. MORE IMPACTS CAN BE REALIZED IF DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY GROWING SEASON AND PRESCRIBED FORESTRY BURN SEASON
IN THE LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE ANNUAL DEPARTURE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA...SINCE JANUARY 1
2014...IS NOT TOO TELLING AS SOME AREAS HAVE GOTTEN COPIOUS
RAINFALL IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR. ALONG THE ATCHAFAYALA
RIVER...SOME LOCATIONS ARE 20 TO 23 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
YEAR. AS ONE GOES FARTHER EAST HOWEVER...SOME RAINFALL DEFICITS
AMOUNT TO 3 TO 4 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE YEAR. LOOKING CLOSER
AT THE PAST 180 DAYS...A LARGER PART OF THE REGION IS SHOWING
RAINFALL DEFICITS GENERALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 11 INCHES. SINCE OCTOBER
1 2014...THE START OF THE NEW WATER YEAR...RAINFALL DEFICITS RANGE
BETWEEN 4 AND 7 INCHES. WHILE THESE VALUES ALONE ARE NOT TOO
ALARMING GIVEN DORMANCY OF VEGETATION...A PERSISTENCE OF THESE
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE SPRING COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE NOAA 3-MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES A 33 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
DROUGHT AREA BETWEEN DECEMBER AND FEBRUARY. TO ACHIEVE THIS...THE
MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES WOULD HAVE TO RECEIVE 6 TO 9 INCHES
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL LEVELS TO DEPLETE THE DROUGHT CONDITION.
NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THESE COUNTIES ARE AROUND 15 INCHES FOR DEC-FEB.
IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
COUNTIES...THE AREA WOULD HAVE TO RECEIVE 3 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL OF 16 TO 17 INCHES IN DEC-FEB.

THE NOAA 3-MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
LIKELIHOOD OF MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH FEBRUARY.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
ALL STREAMS IN THE OUTLOOK AREA ARE AT OR BELOW BASE FLOWS. SOIL
MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE AMPLE CAPACITY FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
ABSORPTION THROUGH THE END OF THE CALENDAR YEAR.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON FRIDAY JANUARY 2 2015 OR SOONER
IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
SOUTHEAST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTP://WWW.SRCC.LSU.EDU
LOUISIANA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE...HTTP://WWW.LOSC.LSU.EDU
MISSISSIPPI STATE CLIMATE OFFICE...
HTTP://GEOSCIENCES.MSSTATE.EDU/STATECLIMATOLOGIST.HTM
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE...HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS
BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE OFFICE
PHONE...985-649-0357
PHONE...504-522-7330
SR-LIX.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

24/RR




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