Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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AXCA72 TJSJ 060445
DGTSJU
PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053>055-057-059-061-
063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-
095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-
127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-VIC010-
020-030-061645-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1245 AM AST TUE SEP 6 2016

..MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS SALINAS...
GUAYAMA...CAYEY...AIBONITO AND VIEQUES...

&&

SYNOPSIS...MOST OF THE ISLANDS ARE RECEIVING DECENT AMOUNTS OF
RAIN EXCEPT NEAR THE D0/D1 AREA IN SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES...WHERE IT HAS BEEN DRIER.

&&

CLIMATE SUMMARY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT MAINLY MISSED
THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE
LATTER AREA INCLUDED THE EXISTING D0/D1 AREA...AND OUT TO 180-DAYS...
RAINFALL HAS BEEN 25 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

&&

EXTENDED FORECAST...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN EL NINO
REGION ARE BELOW NORMAL...AND MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE...WITH EITHER
DEVELOPING WEAK LA NINA OR COLD-NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS.

TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC SSTS TEND TO BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE DURING
DEVELOPING LA NINA...AND ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN. WARM ATLANTIC TEMPERATURES INCREASE EVAPORATION AND
LOCAL DEEP ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTION.

AVERAGE CIRCULATIONS PATTERNS DURING LA NINA PERIODS MAY ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED FREQUENCY OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORMS.
IN ADDITION...LA NINA TEND TO SHIFT RAINFALL CHANCES DURING
DEC-JAN-FEB TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN.

THEREFORE...RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA LIKELY TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.

&&

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...THE 28-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW MEASURED BY
THE USGS GAGING NETWORK SHOWS MOST LOCATIONS RUNNING IN THE 25
TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE...EXCEPT A FEW OUTLIERS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO. LAKE LEVELS AT
MOST OF THE WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS CONTINUE AT OPTIMUM LEVELS.

&&

NEXT ISSUANCE...THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED BY MID OCTOBER
OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NOAA

NWS...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/AHPS

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
4000 CARRETERA 190
CAROLINA, PR 00979
PHONE: 787-253-4586
EMAIL: SR-SJU.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV


$$



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