Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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AXCA72 TJSJ 231742
DGTSJU
PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053>055-057-059-061-
063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-
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127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-VIC010-
020-030-240545-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
142 PM AST SAT JAN 23 2016

...LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICIT PERSISTS...

SYNOPSIS...LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICIT PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. IN FACT...DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN
PUERTO RICO ARE NOT ONLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAINFALL DEFICIT
OBSERVED DURING 2015. 2013 AND 2014 ALSO ENDED WITH RAINFALL
DEFICITS ACROSS THIS AREA.

&

CLIMATE SUMMARY...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO STRONG TRADES RESULTED IN
LIMITED RAINFALL ACTIVITY MARCH THROUGH AT LEAST MAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EL NINO PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FROM MAY THROUGH JULY. THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME SHIFTED
AROUND MID AUGUST AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...THE REMNANTS OF DANNY
AND FORMER TROPICAL STORM GRACE MOVED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
WETTING RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WERE BENEFICIAL...
BUT NOT ENOUGH. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WERE FINALLY OBSERVED DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF OCTOBER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. NOVEMBER
AND DECEMBER WERE NEAR NORMAL WITH PASSING SHOWERS OBSERVED ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS.

2015 ENDED AS THE 8TH DRIEST AND 5TH WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD AT
THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA WITH A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 41.30 INCHES
AND AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 81.9F. AT THE CYRIL E. KING AP SAINT
THOMAS...2015 ENDED AS THE 6TH WETTEST AND 4TH WARMEST YEAR ON
RECORD WITH A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 50.25 INCHES AND AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 81.9F. SIMILAR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT HENRY E
ROHLSEN AP SAINT CROIX...2015 ENDED AS THE 3RD DRIEST AND 3RD
WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD WITH A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 23.07 INCHES
AND AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 81.6F.

&&

RAINFALL OUTLOOK...THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL JANUARY THROUGH JUNE. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER DROUGHT OUTLOOK INDICATES THAT DROUGHT REMAINS BUT IMPROVES
ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...BASED ON USGS DATA...THE MAJORITY OF STREAMFLOWS
ARE NOW RUNNING IN THE NORMAL RANGE...WITH A FEW OUTLIERS HERE AND
THERE. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ALSO REGISTERED SOME IMPROVED
HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS.

&&

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE LATE FEBRUARY...UNLESS CONDITIONS CHANGE BEFORE
THAT TIME. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA
FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES.

RELATED WEB SITES...

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NOAA

NWS...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/AHPS USGS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
4000 CARRETERA 190
CAROLINA, PR 00979
PHONE: 787-253-4586
EMAIL: SR-SJU.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV


$$



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