Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FGUS73 KABR 052020
ESFABR
MNC011-155-SDC013-017-021-025-029-031-037-039-041-045-049-051-057-
059-065-069-075-085-089-091-107-109-115-117-119-129-052000-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
220 PM CST THU MAR 05 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

THIS SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE RIVERS AND STREAMS IN NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXTREME WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.

THE CHANCES FOR MINOR, MODERATE, OR MAJOR FLOODING THIS SPRING ARE
BELOW NORMAL FOR ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE AREA. ICE JAM FLOODING
REMAINS A THREAT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SPRING.

...CURRENT SNOW CONDITIONS...

SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERALLY 4 INCHES OR LESS FOR ALL
AREAS, WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA REPORTING 4 TO 6 INCHES. THE WATER
EQUIVALENT OF THE SNOW IS A TRACE TO ONE INCH.

...CURRENT SOIL CONDITIONS...

FROST DEPTHS IN THE SOILS ARE GENERALLY RUNNING BETWEEN 10 AND 25
INCHES. THIS IS DUE PRIMARILY TO THE COLD FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES WHEN
THERE WAS LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER TO INSULATE THE GROUND. SOIL
MOISTURE IS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR HAS CLASSIFIED ALL BUT THE FAR WEST AS
BEING D0, ABNORMALLY DRY. A PORTION OF FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
IS CLASSIFIED AS D1, MODERATE DROUGHT.

...CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS...

RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE AREA ARE ICE COVERED AND HAVE LEVELS THAT
ARE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

...PROBABLILISTIC OUTLOOKS...

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  3/7/2015 - 6/5/2015

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:ELM RIVER
WESTPORT            14.0   16.0   19.0 :   6   15   <5    8   <5    5
:JAMES RIVER
COLUMBIA            13.0   16.0   18.0 :  21   42   17   26   15   18
STRATFORD           14.0   17.0   18.5 :  25   50   20   31    6   20
ASHTON              13.0   14.0   16.0 :  22   33   21   30   18   24
:TURTLE CREEK
REDFIELD             7.0   10.0   15.0 :  33   41   19   18    5    8
:JAMES RIVER
REDFIELD            20.0   22.0   25.0 :  16   19   15   15   15   14
:BIG SIOUX RIVER
WATERTOWN           11.5   12.5   13.5 :   6   27    5   12   <5   <5
WATERTOWN            9.5   11.5   13.5 :  41   55    8   27   <5    5
WATERTOWN - BROAD   11.0   14.0   16.0 :  32   47   <5   <5   <5   <5
CASTLEWOOD           9.0   11.0   16.0 :  40   52   20   29   <5   <5
:GRAND RIVER
LITTLE EAGLE        15.0   17.0   21.0 :   5    8   <5    6   <5   <5
:MOREAU RIVER
WHITEHORSE          21.0   23.0   25.0 :  <5    8   <5    7   <5    5
:BAD RIVER
FORT PIERRE         21.0   25.0   27.0 :  17   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE MINNESOTA RIVER
PEEVER              17.0   22.0   24.0 :  <5   23   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MINNESOTA RIVER
BIG STONE LAKE     971.5  973.0  975.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 3/7/2015 - 6/5/2015
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:ELM RIVER
WESTPORT              3.0    3.0    4.7    5.7    8.1   11.3   14.7
:JAMES RIVER
COLUMBIA              5.0    5.0    5.4    7.2   12.4   18.6   19.6
STRATFORD             7.1    7.1    7.6    8.3   14.0   17.8   19.3
ASHTON                4.7    4.7    4.8    5.8   10.4   18.9   23.7
:TURTLE CREEK
REDFIELD              4.6    4.6    4.6    5.2    8.2   12.6   14.7
:JAMES RIVER
REDFIELD              5.8    5.8    6.0    7.6   13.5   26.3   28.4
:BIG SIOUX RIVER
WATERTOWN             4.7    5.0    5.6    6.7    8.2    9.5   10.7
WATERTOWN             4.8    5.3    6.4    7.2    9.4    9.8   10.9
WATERTOWN - BROAD     6.2    6.3    7.3    8.6   11.3   12.2   13.0
CASTLEWOOD            5.2    5.5    6.1    7.9   10.6   11.4   12.2
:GRAND RIVER
LITTLE EAGLE          4.1    4.2    4.8    8.3   11.2   14.5   15.0
:MOREAU RIVER
WHITEHORSE            3.1    3.1    6.4    8.6   15.5   17.9   20.5
:BAD RIVER
FORT PIERRE           7.1    7.1    9.0   12.0   17.5   23.7   24.8
:LITTLE MINNESOTA RIVER
PEEVER               11.3   11.3   11.6   12.5   13.8   15.8   17.1

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 3/7/2015 - 6/5/2015
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:ELM RIVER
WESTPORT              3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
:JAMES RIVER
COLUMBIA              5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0
STRATFORD             5.6    5.6    5.6    5.6    5.4    4.4    4.4
ASHTON                3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.1    3.0    3.0
:TURTLE CREEK
REDFIELD              3.2    3.2    3.2    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1
:JAMES RIVER
REDFIELD              3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3    2.8    2.5    2.5
:BIG SIOUX RIVER
WATERTOWN             3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.7    3.7
WATERTOWN             4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1    2.0    2.0
WATERTOWN - BROAD     5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5
CASTLEWOOD            4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.4    4.4
:GRAND RIVER
LITTLE EAGLE          3.3    3.3    3.3    3.2    3.1    3.0    3.0
:MOREAU RIVER
WHITEHORSE            3.0    3.0    3.0    2.7    2.7    2.6    2.5
:BAD RIVER
FORT PIERRE           3.6    3.4    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6
:LITTLE MINNESOTA RIVER
PEEVER               10.1    9.7    9.7    9.7    9.7    9.7    9.7

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/ABR FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TOWARD THE END OF MARCH.

$$

PARKIN









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