Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
310 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NUMBER 3...

THIS IS THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOKS ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASON. THIS OUTLOOK
IS DESIGNED TO PROVIDE A GENERALIZED ASSESSMENT OF THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA FOR
THE NEXT TWO WEEKS...FEBRUARY 5TH THROUGH FEBRUARY 18TH.

...SUMMARY...
.SHORT TERM FLOOD POTENTIAL...BELOW AVERAGE RISK NEXT TWO WEEKS.
.LONG TERM FLOOD POTENTIAL...AVERAGE RISK THROUGH APRIL.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS...

.PRECIPITATION...BELOW AVERAGE. OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS...RAINFALL
DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN 50 TO 80 PERCENT OF WHAT THEY SHOULD BE THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

.SNOW COVER AND WATER EQUIVALENT...BELOW AVERAGE. AS OF FEBRUARY
3RD...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER
AND WATER EQUIVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.RIVER ICE COVER...BELOW AVERAGE. AS OF FEBRUARY 4TH...NEARLY ALL
CHANNELS ARE 90 PERCENT OR MORE OPEN WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
BORDER ICE A FEW FEET OFFSHORE IN SOME AREAS.

.STREAMFLOW...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. STREAMFLOW AT USGS MONITORING
GAUGES HAD RESPONDED TO RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS AND
WAS RUNNING GENERALLY AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL TREND
BACK TO NORMAL DURING THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD.

.SOIL CONDITIONS...NORMAL. PER THE LONG TERM PALMER DROUGHT
INDEX...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY ABOUT AVERAGE
WETNESS. THERE WAS A MIXTURE OF FROZEN VERSUS UNFROZEN SOIL
CONDITIONS...BUT GENERALLY FROST DEPTHS WERE NOT AS DEEP AS WHAT
THE SHOULD BE FOR FEBRUARY.

.RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ARMY CORPS
FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIRS...THE FINGER LAKES...LAKE WALLENPAUPACK
AND THE NYC DELAWARE RESERVOIR SYSTEM WERE ALL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
RANGES FOR THE SEASON TO DATE.

...FORECAST OUTLOOK...

.FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - THE 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BELOW
AVERAGE FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS LOOK TO BE
GENERALLY WETTER THAN NORMAL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS...HOWEVER WITH
A TENDENCY FOR COLDER CONDITIONS...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

.LONG RANGE RIVER MODELING AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS - LONG RANGE
HYDROLOGIC FORECASTS INDICATE THAT NO FLOODING IS PROJECTED OVER
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. PROBABILITY GUIDANCE FROM THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE SUGGESTS CHANCES OF FLOODING ARE
BELOW AVERAGE WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST.

...IN CONCLUSION...
THE OUTLOOK ESTIMATES THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND LAKE FLOODING
BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF GENERALIZED HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL
FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM SNOW MELT ALONE.
RAINFALL... HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF TIME...IS THE
MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING.
SPECIFIC FORECASTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ARE NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS OUTLOOK.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS
OFFICE IN TWO WEEKS, ON FEBRUARY 18, 2016. IF CONDITIONS CHANGE
IN THE INTERIM... FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES WILL BE
ISSUED AS NECESSARY.

$$

JAB



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