Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
322 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

OUTLOOK NUMBER 14-07 - APRIL 3, 2014

...INTRODUCTION...
THIS IS THE FINAL IN THE SERIES OF OUTLOOKS FOR THE ANNUAL SPRING
SNOW MELT SEASON. THIS OUTLOOK IS DESIGNED TO PROVIDE A GENERALIZED
ASSESSMENT OF THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE TWO WEEK PERIOD FROM APRIL 3RD TO
APRIL 17TH, 2014. THIS ASSESSMENT IS FOR THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE (NWS) BINGHAMTON HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA, WHICH INCLUDES
THE FINGER LAKES/ONEIDA LAKE/OSWEGO RIVER BASIN, CHEMUNG RIVER
BASIN, NORTH BRANCH SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN AND THE UPPER DELAWARE
RIVER BASIN.

...SUMMARY...
THE OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT OUR SERVICE AREA FOR THE
NEXT TWO WEEKS IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR APRIL. SMALLER STREAMS AND
TRIBUTARIES IN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY HAVE A HIGHER FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE
TO ABOVE NORMAL STREAM FLOWS...AND FUTURE MELTING OF THE REMAINING
SNOW COVER AND WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE AREA.

...DETAILS...

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - DURING THE PAST 14 DAYS...PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION...BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR
PARTS OF THE UPPER SUSQUEHANNA BASIN. FOR THE PAST 30 DAYS...
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL IN NEW YORK...AND BELOW NORMAL
IN THE UPPER DELAWARE BASIN AND THE REST OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

SNOW PACK CONDITIONS - THE BULK OF THE SNOW PACK IS GONE ACROSS
THE AREA. SNOW REMAINS SEVERAL INCHES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF
ONEIDA COUNTY.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) VALUES - WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EXISTS
IN THE UPPER MOHAWK BASINS...THE WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM
ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES...UP TO AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES IN SOME AREAS.

RIVER ICE CONDITIONS - ALL SIGNIFICANT RIVER ICE IS GONE.

STREAM AND RIVER CONDITIONS - USGS GAUGES INDICATE STREAM FLOWS
ARE GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR APRIL.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - THE LONG TERM PALMER INDEX SUGGESTS WET
TO VERY WET SOIL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA. THE THAW DEPTH AT NWS
BINGHAMTON HAS REACHED 13 INCHES. A SUB-SURFACE FROZEN LAYER EXISTS
BETWEEN 13 AND 21 INCHES DEEP.

RESERVOIR AND LAKE CONDITIONS - RECENT RAINS AND SNOW MELT HAVE
FORCED LAKE LEVELS IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO JUMP ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. OTHER FLOOD CONTROL...AND WATER RESOURCE
RESERVOIRS IN THE NYC DEP WATERSHED APPEAR NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - THE OFFICIAL 6 TO 14 DAY FORECAST IS
CALLING FOR A COOLER AND WETTER PERIOD THIS MONTH. THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS APPEARS TO BE ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND PERIODIC RAINFALL MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS WILL PREVENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS FROM DRYING OUT...AND
STREAMS RETURNING TO BASE FLOWS. AT THIS TIME...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
NOT CERTAIN...BUT WITH SEVERAL WEATHER FEATURES ON THE HORIZON...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAN AN EVENT OR TWO COULD PROVIDE SUBSTANTIAL RAINS
TO THE BASINS DURING THIS TIME.

ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) HISTORICAL
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK - THE PROBABILITY OF RIVER FLOODING IN THE
BASINS IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL WHEN COMPARED TO TRENDS OF
HISTORICAL SEASONAL FLOODING FOR THE PAST 50 YEARS.

LONG RANGE HYDROLOGIC MODELING SUGGESTS A POSSIBILITY OF NEAR
BANKFUL MINOR FLOODING STAGES OF HEADWATER STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES OVER
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THIS IS MAINLY A FUNCTION OF MILDER TEMPERATURES
MELTING THE REMAINING SNOW PACK AND SEVERAL RAIN EVENTS MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION.

...CAVEATS...

THE OUTLOOK ESTIMATES THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND LAKE FLOODING
BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF BROAD BASED HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL
FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER AND LAKE FLOODING AS SHOWN
ABOVE.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER AND
LAKE FLOODING. INDIVIDUAL HEAVY RAIN STORMS CAN NOT BE PRECISELY
PREDICTED OVER THE LONG RANGE...AND ARE NOT WITHIN THE SCOPE OF
THIS
OUTLOOK. HEAVY RAIN CAN DEVELOP ON SHORT NOTICE...AND RAPIDLY
CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR, EVEN WHEN THE OVERALL FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED BELOW AVERAGE.

THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ATTEMPT TO ADDRESS FLASH FLOODING, OR THE
SEVERITY OF ANY POSSIBLE FUTURE FLOODING.

...REFERENCES...

MUCH MORE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND BY
VISITING THESE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INTERNET WEB SITES.

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BGM (CLICK HYDROLOGY LINK)
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/NERFC
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MARFC
HTTP://WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV (FOR SNOW INFORMATION)

THIS WILL BE THE LAST OUTLOOK UNTIL NEXT SEASON.

$$

JAB






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