National Weather Service Text Product Display

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Versions: 1
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123-PAC015-069-079-103-115-127-131-042015-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
412 PM EDT THU MAR 21 2013

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NUMBER 13-06...

...SUMMARY...
THIS IS THE SIXTH IN A SERIES OF OUTLOOKS FOR THE SPRING SNOW MELT SEASON.
THIS OUTLOOK IS DESIGNED TO PROVIDE A GENERALIZED ASSESSMENT OF THE
FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA FOR
THE TWO WEEK PERIOD FROM MARCH 21ST TO APRIL 4TH 2013. THIS ASSESSMENT
IS FOR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) BINGHAMTON HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA, WHICH INCLUDES THE FINGER LAKES/ONEIDA LAKE/OSWEGO RIVER BASIN,
CHEMUNG RIVER BASIN, NORTH BRANCH SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN AND THE UPPER
DELAWARE RIVER BASIN.

THE OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS BELOW
NORMAL.

...DETAILS...

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS, PRECIPITATION
WAS ABOVE AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST 30 TO 90 DAYS HAS
BEEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SNOW PACK CONDITIONS - SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH SNOW DEPTHS
RANGING FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THESE AMOUNTS WERE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION...AND SOME OF THE LOWEST VALLEYS
ACTUALLY HAVE LIMITED OR NO SNOW.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) VALUES - THE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF THE
SNOW PACK WAS UNDER ONE INCH ACROSS THE REGION. MELTING THIS
EXISTING SNOW PACK WOULD BE HYDROLOGICALLY INSIGNIFICANT UNLESS
ACCOMPANIED BY A SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT.

RIVER ICE CONDITIONS - ICE COVER WAS NON-EXISTENT ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS IS NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

STREAM AND RIVER CONDITIONS - FLOWS AVERAGED OVER THE PAST MONTH AT
THE USGS INDEX MONITORING GAUGES WERE RUNNING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - THE LONG TERM PALMER DROUGHT INDEX AND
THE U.S. CROP INDEX OBSERVED THROUGH MID MARCH WERE INDICATING
NEAR NORMAL SOIL WETNESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A
TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL WETNESS AROUND THE FINGER LAKES BASINS.

GROUND WATER - WELL LEVELS ARE GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL.

RESERVOIR AND LAKE CONDITIONS -
THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIR STORAGE IN THE CATSKILLS
OF NEW YORK / UPPER DELAWARE RIVER BASIN WAS 2.0 PERCENT ABOVE
NORMAL AT A STORAGE CAPACITY OF 92.5 PERCENT.

ARMY CORPS LAKE RESERVOIR PROJECTS ARE INDICATING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE POOL HEIGHTS AS A RESULT OF RAIN AND SNOW MELT LAST WEEK,
BUT WERE RAPIDLY TRENDING DOWN TOWARD NORMAL SPRING POOLS.

THE FINGER LAKES ARE WITHIN THEIR MANAGED TARGET LEVELS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - OVERALL...THE NEXT TWO WEEKS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE COLDER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENTS EXPECTED.

ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) HISTORICAL
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK - ACCORDING TO THIS GUIDANCE TOOL, THE
PROBABILITY OF RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE
WHEN COMPARED TO EXPECTED HISTORICAL FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

EXPERIMENTAL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECAST MODEL PREDICTION - THE
PROBABILITY OF RIVER FLOODING INDICATED BY THIS MODEL GROUP
INDICATES ESSENTIALLY LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF FLOODING OVER THE
NEXT 10 DAYS.

ANALYSIS SUMMARY...

FLOOD POTENTIAL NEXT TWO WEEKS - BELOW NORMAL.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - BELOW NORMAL.
SNOW PACK CONDITIONS - SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) HYDROLOGICALLY INSIGNIFICANT.
RIVER ICE CONDITIONS - NORMAL (NONE).
STREAM AND RIVER CONDITIONS - AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE FLOWS.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL WETNESS.
GROUND WATER - NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.
RESERVOIR AND LAKE CONDITIONS - NORMAL TO ABOVE, TRENDING DOWN.
FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - COLDER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL.
AHPS PROBABILITY FORECAST - CHANCES ARE BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE.
ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECAST MODEL PREDICTION - LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FLOODING.

...CAVEATS...
THE OUTLOOK ESTIMATES THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND LAKE FLOODING
BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF BROAD BASED HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL
FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER AND LAKE FLOODING AS SHOWN
ABOVE.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER AND
LAKE FLOODING. INDIVIDUAL HEAVY RAIN STORMS CAN NOT BE PRECISELY
PREDICTED WITHIN THIS OUTLOOK. HEAVY RAIN CAN DEVELOP ON SHORT
NOTICE...AND RAPIDLY CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR, EVEN
WHEN THE OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED BELOW AVERAGE.

THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ATTEMPT TO ADDRESS FLASH FLOODING,
OR THE SEVERITY OF ANY POSSIBLE FUTURE FLOODING.

...REFERENCES...
MUCH MORE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND BY
VISITING THESE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INTERNET WEB SITES.

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BGM (CLICK HYDROLOGY LINK)
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/NERFC
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MARFC
HTTP://WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV (FOR SNOW INFORMATION)

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS
OFFICE IN TWO WEEKS, ON APRIL 4, 2013.


$$

JAB
National Weather Service National Headquarters
