Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1124 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK /3/...

THIS IS THE THIRD FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE 2016 WINTER/SPRING
SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON VERMONT TO SUMMARIZE THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT AND BREAK UP OF RIVER ICE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

...OVERVIEW...

THE FLOOD OUTLOOK DUE TO SNOWMELT AND ICE JAMS IS BELOW TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. EARLY WINTER
SNOWPACK AND RIVER ICE CONDITIONS ARE BELOW NORMAL.

...SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

SNOW COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT IS REMARKABLY THIN.
EVEN MOUNTAIN TOP LOCATIONS REPORT ONLY 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW,
AND VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVE LESS THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE
GROUND.

THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, OR AMOUNT OF LIQUID WATER HELD IN THE
SNOWPACK, WAS AN INCH OR LESS IN THE VALLEYS AND 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

...RIVER AND SOIL CONDITIONS...

RIVER ICE COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATER JANUARY. ICE THAT REMAINS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS IS STILL
THINNER THAN NORMAL. THE AMOUNT OF RIVER ICE IS MUCH LESS THAN
NORMAL.

FROST DEPTHS RANGE FROM ABOUT 5 TO 9 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT. SOIL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...

A MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE NEXT FEW
WEEKS. THE 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS SHOW COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER HEADING OUR WAY.

...SUMMARY...

THE SPRING SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT IS BELOW TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL. SNOW COVER ON LAND AND ICE COVER ON RIVERS ARE
EQUALLY THIN, AND POSE LITTLE FLOOD THREAT. A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS WILL INCREASE RIVER ICE
FORMATION.

THE PROBABILITY FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN FLOODING IS LOW BASED ON MELT
OF THE EXISTING SNOW COMBINED WITH NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE LAKE
LEVEL IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON FEBRUARY
18.

ACCESS CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS ON OUR WEB SITE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV.

$$

NEILES


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