Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FGUS71 KBTV 191703
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NYC019-031-033-089-VTC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-
027-211715-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1203 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK /4/...

...LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW MELT OR ICE JAM FLOODING THROUGH
FEBRUARY...

THIS IS THE FOURTH FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE 2015 WINTER/SPRING
SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY THROUGH THE WINTER AND
SPRING BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON VERMONT TO
SUMMARIZE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOW MELT AND BREAK UP OF
RIVER ICE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT, AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK.

...OVERVIEW...

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SNOW MELT OR ICE JAM FLOODING
THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY AND INTO EARLY MARCH. ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW PACK IS BUILDING AND RIVER ICE IS THICK AND EXTENSIVE, COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF. THE LONGER TERM
SPRING MELT AND ICE JAM THREAT IS NEAR NORMAL.

...SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONS TO THE SNOW PACK OVER THE
FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY. SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT IS NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SNOW DEPTH IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WAS 6 INCHES TO A FOOT IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND 18 INCHES TO TWO AND A HALF FEET IN THE
ADIRONDACKS. IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY IN THE HIGH PEAKS REGION
SNOW DEPTH WAS TWO TO THREE FEET.

IN VERMONT, SNOW DEPTH WAS 20 INCHES TO THREE FEET BELOW 1500
FEET, AND TWO TO FOUR FEET OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT HAD SIX INCHES TO A
FOOT OF SNOW COVER.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, OR THE LIQUID WATER CONTENT HELD IN THE
SNOW PACK, INCREASED WITH THE SNOWFALL. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS HAD AROUND ONE AND A HALF
INCHES OF WATER IN THE SNOW PACK, INCREASING TO THREE TO SIX
INCHES IN THE HIGH PEAKS. IN VERMONT, INTERIOR VALLEYS HAD ONE TO
THREE INCHES OF WATER, INCREASING TO THREE TO SEVEN INCHES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW COVER ON THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FLOOR HELD
AROUND ONE INCH OF LIQUID WATER.

...RIVER AND SOIL CONDITIONS...

EXTENSIVE RIVER ICE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE ARCTIC COLD SINCE THE
END OF DECEMBER WITH A SOLID SMOOTH ICE COVER AND ONLY A FEW OPEN
LEADS. THE US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY REPORTED RIVER ICE THICKNESS OF A
FOOT TO A FOOT AND A HALF ON VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK RIVERS.
RIVER FLOWS HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WINTER MONTHS, AND
THE LOW FLOWS AND THICK ICE WILL KEEP THE ICE COVER INTACT.

SOIL MOISTURE WAS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE THIN SNOW COVER AND
FRIGID TEMPERATURES HAVE ALLOWED FROST TO PENETRATE DEEP INTO THE
SOIL, WITH FROST DEPTHS DOWN TO 20 INCHES IN AREAS THAT HAD A THIN
SNOW COVER THROUGH JANUARY. AREAS THAT HAVE RETAINED SOME
INSULATING SNOW COVER REPORT FROST DEPTHS OF EIGHT TO TEN INCHES.
FROZEN SOILS WOULD ENHANCE RUNOFF RATHER THAN ABSORB EXCESS
MOISTURE.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...

SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY MARCH. COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH EARLY MARCH TO KEEP THE SNOWPACK AND
RIVER ICE LOCKED IN PLACE. NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. SOME BRIEF
MODERATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE JET STREAM FLOW VARIES AND FLATTENS
A BIT.

...SUMMARY...

SNOW MELT OR ICE JAM FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF MARCH. SNOW COVER CONTINUES TO BE NEAR NORMAL,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE
TO PRODUCE RAIN OR MELT THE SNOW. COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED
RIVER ICE COVERAGE AND THICKNESS, AND THE ICE WILL REMAIN LOCKED
IN PLACE AS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY
MARCH 5.

ACCESS CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS ON OUR WEB SITE
AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/BTV.

$$

NEILES



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