Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FGUS72 KCAE 311027
ESFCAE
GAC033-073-181-189-245-SCC003-009-011-017-025-027-037-039-055-057-061-
063-065-071-075-079-081-085-141200-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
625 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER FLOODING ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA...

THIS SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS FOR RIVERS AND
TRIBUTARIES OF THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN IN EAST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING:

SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN DOWNSTREAM OF R. B. RUSSELL LAKE AND
UPSTREAM FROM BURTONS FERRY...

THE EDISTO RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF THE BAMBERG...ORANGEBURG
COUNTY LINE IN SOUTH CAROLINA...

THE SANTEE RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF THE CLARENDON/BERKELEY COUNTY
LINE AND DOWNSTREAM ON THE SALUDA AND BROAD RIVERS AT THE
GREENWOOD/SALUDA...LAURENS/NEWBERRY...UNION/FAIRFIELD AND THE
CHESTER/FAIRFIELD COUNTY LINES IN SOUTH CAROLINA...

THE WATEREE RIVER SYSTEM DOWNSTREAM OF GREAT FALLS
SOUTH CAROLINA...

AND THE PEE DEE RIVER BASIN IN CHESTERFIELD COUNTY IN
SOUTH CAROLINA.

            ...SUMMARY OF RECENT WEATHER EVENTS...

OVER THE LAST 14 DAYS ENDING MARCH 17 2016...THE HYDROLOGIC AREA
RECEIVED RAINFALL RANGING FROM 0.50 TO 2.00 INCHES ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER.

             ...SOIL MOISTURE...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID MARCH 22 2016 SHOWED NO AREAS OF THE
MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA IN DROUGHT. ALTHOUGH
PORTIONS OF THE CSRA NORTHWARD INTO NEWBERRY COUNTY HAVE NOW BEEN
LISTED HAS ABNORMALLY DRY. PLEASE SEE DROUGHT.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.


             ...RIVER AND STREAM FLOW...

THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW PROVIDED BY THE USGS AS OF MARCH 29
2016 INDICATED STREAMFLOWS WERE BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.
THERE WERE A COUPLE OF STREAM GAGES IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CSRA THAT WERE MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

             ...RESERVOIR LEVELS...

MANY RESERVOIRS ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THEIR EARLY SPRING TARGET POOLS.

LAKE THURMOND (FP 330.0 FEET)...
MAR 17 2016    329.1 FEET
MAR 31 2016    329.7 FEET
DIFFERENCE PLUS  0.6 FEET

LAKE GREENWOOD (FP 440.0 FEET)...
MAR 17 2016    437.5 FEET
MAR 31 2016    438.3 FEET
DIFFERENCE PLUS  0.8 FEET

LAKE MURRAY (FP 360.0 FEET)...
MAR 17 2016    357.8 FEET
MAR 31 2016    357.7 FEET
DIFFERENCE MINUS 0.1 FEET

LAKE MARION (FP 76.8 FEET)...
MAR 17 2016     75.9 FEET
MAR 31 2016     75.1 FEET
DIFFERENCE MINUS 0.8 FEET

LAKE WATEREE (FP 100.00 FEET)...
MAR 17 2016     97.3 FEET
MAR 31 2016     97.4 FEET
DIFFERENCE PLUS  0.1 FEET

DATA FOR THIS SEGMENT WAS GATHERED FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY...THE UNITED STATES ARMY CORP OF ENGINEERS...DUKE ENERGY...
SOUTH CAROLINA ELECTRIC AND GAS AND SANTEE COOPER

       ...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...

NEAR TERM...THROUGH MONDAY APRIL 7..RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO
3 INCHES IS FORECASTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLEASE SEE THE
GRIDDED FORECASTS FOR THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAE.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD APRIL 5 TO APRIL 9
CALLS FOR A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH EQUAL CHANCE OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD APRIL 7 TO APRIL 13
INDICATES A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.

THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 2016 DISPLAYS A EQUAL CHANCE OF
ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A 33 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.

THE 3-MONTH OUTLOOK FOR APRIL...MAY AND JUNE CALLS FOR A 40
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.

                 ...SUMMARY/OUTLOOK...

THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER
FLOODING IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA.

HISTORICALLY...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID
JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH LATE
WINTER WITH A PEAK IN EARLY TO MID MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THIS FLOOD SEASON BEGAN EARLY DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED DURING THE FALL OF 2015 AND EARLY WINTER OF
2016. THIS SET THE STAGE FOP MORE FLOODING IN THE COMING MONTHS
ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THIS REGION...STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING JUST BELOW TO AROUND NORMAL.
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE LEANS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS WET
WEATHER THROUGH APRIL. THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THIS SPRING DUE TO SOILS THAT IN SOME AREAS ARE
STILL QUITE WET...FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AND LAKES THAT ARE
RUNNING JUST ABOVE THEIR NORMAL TARGET POOL FOR LATE MARCH AND EARLY
APRIL. OVERALL...THE RELATIVE RISK IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.


THE NEXT SCHEDULED WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS
APRIL 14 2016.


               ...QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK PLEASE
CONTACT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2909 AVIATION WAY
WEST COLUMBIA SC 29170
PHONE: 803-822-8135
INTERNET ADDRESS CAEWX@NOAA.GOV
LEONARD.VAUGHAN@NOAA.GOV

VAUGHAN

$$



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