Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FGUS72 KCAE 042100
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GAC033-073-181-189-245-SCC003-009-011-017-025-027-037-039-055-057-061-
063-065-071-075-079-081-085-181200-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
400 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER FLOODING ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA...

THIS WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS FOR RIVERS AND
TRIBUTARIES OF THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN IN EAST-CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING:

SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN DOWNSTREAM OF R. B. RUSSELL LAKE AND
UPSTREAM FROM BURTONS FERRY...

THE EDISTO RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF THE BAMBERG...ORANGEBURG
COUNTY LINE IN SOUTH CAROLINA...

THE SANTEE RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF THE CLARENDON/BERKELEY COUNTY
LINE AND DOWNSTREAM ON THE SALUDA AND BROAD RIVERS AT THE
GREENWOOD/SALUDA...LAURENS/NEWBERRY...UNION/FAIRFIELD AND THE
CHESTER/FAIRFIELD COUNTY LINES IN SOUTH CAROLINA...

THE WATEREE RIVER SYSTEM DOWNSTREAM OF GREAT FALLS
SOUTH CAROLINA...

AND THE PEE DEE RIVER BASIN IN CHESTERFIELD COUNTY IN
SOUTH CAROLINA.

            ...SUMMARY OF RECENT WEATHER EVENTS...

OVER THE LAST 14 DAYS ENDING FEBRUARY 4 2016...THE HYDROLOGIC AREA
RECEIVED RAINFALL RANGING FROM 1.0 TO 3.0 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MIDLANDS TO 3.0 TO 4.0 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA.


             ...SOIL MOISTURE...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID FEBRUARY 2 2016 SHOWED NO AREAS IN
DROUGHT. PLEASE SEE DROUGHT.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.


             ...RIVER AND STREAM FLOW...

THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW PROVIDED BY THE USGS AS OF FEBRUARY 2
2016 INDICATED STREAMFLOWS WERE ABOVE NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

             ...RESERVOIR LEVELS...

MANY RESERVOIRS ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THEIR WINTER TARGET POOLS.

LAKE THURMOND (FP 330.0 FEET)...
JAN 21 2016    327.4 FEET
FEB 04 2016    328.5 FEET
DIFFERENCE  PLUS 1.1 FEET

LAKE GREENWOOD (FP 440.0 FEET)...
JAN 21 2016    437.0 FEET
FEB 04 2016    435.8 FEET
DIFFERENCE MINUS 1.2 FEET

LAKE MURRAY (FP 360.0 FEET)...
JAN 21 2016    355.1 FEET
FEB 04 2016    355.8 FEET
DIFFERENCE   PLUS 0.7 FEET

LAKE MARION (FP 76.8 FEET)...
JAN 21 2016     76.3 FEET
FEB 04 2016     76.4 FEET
DIFFERENCE   PLUS 0.1 FEET

LAKE WATEREE (FP 100.00 FEET)...
JAN 21 2016     96.1 FEET
FEB04 2016      95.6 FEET
DIFFERENCE MINUS 0.5 FEET

DATA FOR THIS SEGMENT WAS GATHERED FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY...THE UNITED STATES ARMY CORP OF ENGINEERS...DUKE ENERGY...
SOUTH CAROLINA ELECTRIC AND GAS AND SANTEE COOPER

       ...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...

NEAR TERM...THROUGH MONDAY FEBRUARY 8...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 0.35 EAST TO ZERO WEST ARE FORECAST. PLEASE SEE THE
GRIDDED FORECASTS FOR THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAE.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD FEBRUARY 9 TO FEBRUARY 13
CALLS FOR A 60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
A 33 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD FEBRUARY 11 TO FEBRUARY 17
INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA.

THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 2016 DISPLAYS EQUAL CHANCES OF
ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE 3-MONTH OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH MARCH CALLS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

                 ...SUMMARY/OUTLOOK...

THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER
FLOODING IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA.

HISTORICALLY...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID
JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH LATE
WINTER WITH A PEAK IN EARLY TO MID MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THIS FLOOD SEASON HAS BEGUN EARLY DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED DURING THE FALL OF 2015 AND EARLY WINTER OF
2016. THIS HAS SET THE STAGE FOP MORE FLOODING IN THE COMING MONTH
ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THIS REGION...STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL...MEDIUM AND
LONG RANGE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE LEANS TOWARDS WET WEATHER THROUGH
APRIL. THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND RIVER FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE THIS WINTER DUE TO SATURATED SOILS...FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL AND LAKES THAT ARE RUNNING ABOVE THEIR NORMAL TARGET
POOL FOR THE SEASON. OVERALL...THE RELATIVE RISK IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.


THE NEXT SCHEDULED WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS
FEBRUARY 18 2016.


               ...QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK PLEASE
CONTACT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2909 AVIATION WAY
WEST COLUMBIA SC 29170
PHONE: 803-822-8135
INTERNET ADDRESS CAEWX@NOAA.GOV

MORRISON

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