Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
113 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK NUMBER 7...

...THERE IS A NORMAL RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND
NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

A NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS OCCASIONAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITH
WATER LEVELS REACHING MINOR IMPACTS.

THIS IS THE SEVENTH ISSUANCE OF THE WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND. FLOOD
OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BIWEEKLY DURING THE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING
TO SUMMARIZE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...SNOW PACK DEPTH AND
WATER CONTENT...ICE COVERAGE ON AREA RIVERS AND THE LAKE...SOIL
MOISTURE...AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

...OVERVIEW...
PERIODS OF WARM TEMPERATURES IN MARCH ELIMINATED THE SNOWPACK
IN THE AREA AND ROTTED THE RIVER ICE. THE GROUND COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY THAW HOWEVER REMAIN SATURATED AND UNABLE TO
ABSORB MUCH RUNOFF THROUGH MID APRIL. THE BEGINNING OF GROWING
SEASON WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SOIL CONDITIONS AND HELP REDUCE
THE OVERALL FLOOD RISK. WITH THESE FACTORS CONSIDERED...THE FLOOD
THREAT LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS NORMAL.

...CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...
MOST RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THE REGION ARE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WINTER
POOL LEVELS. GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL. WATER SUPPLY
SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

...SNOW AND ICE COVERAGE...
THERE NO LONGER REMAINS A SNOWPACK IN THE REGION. ICE COVERAGE
REMAINS IN PART OVER LAKE ERIE...BUT CONTINUES TO DECAY AND DOES NOT
REPRESENT A HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR FLOODING.

...SOIL MOISTURE...
SEASONAL FROZEN GROUND CAN HAVE A VERY SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON THE
AMOUNT OF RUNOFF. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAWING OF THE
TOPSOILS ACROSS THE AREA.

...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S 8-
14 DAY OUTLOOKS SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...LONG TERM OUTLOOKS...
THE ENSO CYCLE IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
AN EL NINO THIS SUMMER AND FALL...BUT IT IS NOT PLAY A NOTABLE
ROLE ON THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE U.S. THIS
SPRING. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S FORECASTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SPRING ARE FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...AND
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS IS NEAR NORMAL. IN THE LONG TERM
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL.

REAL TIME RIVER INFORMATION AND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FOR
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS ALONG RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/CLE/ AND CLICKING THE /RIVERS AND LAKES
AHPS/ LINK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE.

FOR THE LONG-RANGE RIVER OUTLOOKS AND THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE OR THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RELATIVE TO
NORMAL AT SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS...
REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC AND CLICK ON THE 90-DAY RIVER
OUTLOOK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE PAGE. CLICK ON FLOOD CHC VS
NORMAL TO VIEW THE RISK OF FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL.


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