Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
715 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED FEBRUARY 05 2016...

INTRODUCTION.

DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ISSUES A SERIES OF WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOKS.
THESE OUTLOOKS ESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING (NOT
FLASH FLOODING) ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BASED ON A CURRENT
ASSESSMENT OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO
RIVER FLOODING. ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THESE FACTORS INCLUDE
RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAMFLOW...FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OR EXTENT
OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN INCLUDING THE
WEST BRANCH...JUNIATA...AND MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. ALSO COVERED ARE PORTIONS OF THE UPPER AND
LOWER ALLEGHENY BASINS...INCLUDING AREAS FROM WARREN AND MCKEAN
COUNTIES IN THE NORTH...THROUGH CAMBRIA AND SOMERSET COUNTIES IN
THE SOUTH.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID THURSDAY FEBRUARY 4TH 2016 THROUGH THURSDAY
FEBRUARY 18TH 2016.

IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR
WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE
YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW
OR BELOW AVERAGE.

DETAILED DISCUSSION.

TWO WEEK RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...THE CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR RIVER
FLOODING IS NEAR AVERAGE.

CURRENT FLOODING...NONE.
NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN THE REGION AT THIS TIME.

RECENT PRECIPITATION...VARIABLE.
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE STATE COLLEGE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LAST
30 DAYS (JANUARY 5TH - FEBRUARY 4TH ) IS VARIABLE ACROSS THE ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA REPORTING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA HAS SEEN
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY DUE TO THE SNOW STORM TWO WEEKS
AGO.

SNOW CONDITIONS...AVERAGE SOUTH...WELL BELOW AVERAGE NORTH.
THE RECENT DEEP SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
HAS LARGELY MELTED WITH THE RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL...
WITH SNOW DEPTHS UNDER THREE INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

SNOW DATA AND INFORMATION SOURCES INCLUDE THE NOAA/NWS
OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER
(WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV)...THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS...NWS
COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...THE COMMUNITY RAIN, HAIL AND SNOW NETWORK
(COCORAHS) AND OTHERS. SNOW DEPTH AND BASIN AVERAGE WATER
EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES CAN BE SEEN AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/MARFC
(LOWER CASE) AND WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE).

RIVER ICE...AVERAGE.
RIVER ICE HAS FORMED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THOUGH THICKNESSES ARE
AVERAGE OR BELOW DUE TO THE HIGHLY VARIABLE TEMPERATURES THIS MONTH.

FOLLOW RIVER ICE CONDITIONS AT
HTTP://ERH.NOAA.GOV/CTP/HYDRO/RIVERICE/INDEX.PHP (LOWER CASE)

STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS...ABOVE AVERAGE.
STREAMS SAW MODERATE RISES THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO RAIN AND SNOWMELT.
WITH DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
STREAMFLOWS ARE FORECAST TO RECEDE BACK TO AVERAGE LEVELS.

REAL TIME WATER DATA IS AVAILABLE FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY BY VISITING HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV (LOWER CASE) ON THE
INTERNET.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...BELOW AVERAGE.
THE LATEST SOIL MOISTURE REPORTS SHOW THAT MOST OF THE REGION IS
REPORTING BELOW AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES.

MOISTURE MONITORING CHARTS FROM NOAA`S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/SOILMST/SOILMST.SHTML
(LOWER CASE) AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

GROUND WATER...AVERAGE.
MONITORING WELLS INDICATE  THAT CURRENT GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE CLOSE
TO SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

CURRENT GROUND WATER CONDITIONS BASED ON A 30 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
CAN BE FOUND AT HTTP://PA.WATER.USGS.GOV/MONITOR/GW/INDEX.HTML
(LOWER CASE)

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...AVERAGE.
MOST WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS WITHIN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ARE
HOLDING AVERAGE STORAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS ARE MOST FLOOD
CONTROL RESERVOIRS.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A RETURN TO MORE WINTER CONDITIONS IS FORECAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AT
THIS POINT NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD FEBRUARY 10 - FEBRUARY 14 IS FOR
BELOW ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. THE 8 TO
14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM FEBRUARY 12 - FEBRUARY 18 IS FOR NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)...VARIABLE.
ANOTHER TOOL USED TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING IS THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE...AHPS. AHPS GENERATES
PROBABILISTIC RIVER FORECASTS BASED ON CURRENT BASIN CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING RIVER LEVELS...SOIL MOISTURE...EXTENT AND CONDITION OF ANY
SNOW PACK...ALONG WITH 50 YEARS OF HISTORIC TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
DATA. FOR THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD... AHPS INDICATES THAT THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RIVER FLOODING IS ABOVE  AVERAGE COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN
HISTORICALLY OBSERVED DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD ACROSS SMALL RIVER BASINS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS ARE AVERAGE OR BELOW
AVERAGE. RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/AHPS

SUMMARY OF FLOOD POTENTIAL FEBRUARY 4TH TO FEBRUARY 18TH 2016:
THE REGIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.


OVERVIEW:
CURRENT FLOODING...NONE.
RECENT PRECIPITATION...VARIABLE.
SNOW CONDITIONS...MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
RIVER ICE...AVERAGE.
STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS...ABOVE AVERAGE.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...BELOW AVERAGE.
GROUND WATER...AVERAGE.
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...AVERAGE.
AHPS...VARIABLE.
OVERALL  FLOOD POTENTIAL...AVERAGE.

THE NEXT FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY
FEBRUARY 18TH.

OTHER HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING
THE STATE COLLEGE INTERNET HOMEPAGE AT HTTP://ERH.NOAA.GOV/CTP
(LOWER CASE).

$$

CR



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