Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
130 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...2015 WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NUMBER 7...

INTRODUCTION.

DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ISSUES A SERIES OF WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOKS.
THESE OUTLOOKS ESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING (NOT
FLASH FLOODING) ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BASED ON A CURRENT
ASSESSMENT OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO
RIVER FLOODING. ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THESE FACTORS INCLUDE
RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAMFLOW...FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OR EXTENT
OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN INCLUDING THE
WEST BRANCH...JUNIATA...AND MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. ALSO COVERED ARE PORTIONS OF THE UPPER AND
LOWER ALLEGHENY BASINS...INCLUDING AREAS FROM WARREN AND MCKEAN
COUNTIES IN THE NORTH...THROUGH CAMBRIA AND SOMERSET COUNTIES IN
THE SOUTH.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID THURSDAY APRIL 16TH 2015 THROUGH THURSDAY
APRIL 30TH 2015.

IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR
WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE
YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW
OR BELOW AVERAGE.

DETAILED DISCUSSION.

TWO WEEK RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...THE CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR RIVER
FLOODING IS NEAR AVERAGE.

CURRENT FLOODING...NONE.
NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN THE REGION AT THIS TIME.

RECENT PRECIPITATION...VARIABLE.
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE STATE COLLEGE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LAST
30 DAYS (MARCH 16TH - APRIL 15TH ) IS VARIABLE ACROSS THE  ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA REPORTING BELOW
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE NORTHER HALF OF THE AREA HAS SEEN
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

SNOW CONDITIONS...INSIGNIFICANT.
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS MELTED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ONLY SPARSE
AMOUNTS OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SNOW DATA AND INFORMATION SOURCES INCLUDE THE NOAA/NWS
OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER
(WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV)...THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS...NWS
COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...THE COMMUNITY RAIN, HAIL AND SNOW NETWORK
(COCORAHS) AND OTHERS. SNOW DEPTH AND BASIN AVERAGE WATER
EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES CAN BE SEEN AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/MARFC
(LOWER CASE) AND WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE).

RIVER ICE...INSIGNIFICANT.
RIVER ICE HAS ALL MELTED ACROSS THE REGION AND IS NOT A CONTRIBUTOR
TO FLOODING FOR THE REST OF THE SPRING.

FOLLOW RIVER ICE CONDITIONS AT
HTTP://ERH.NOAA.GOV/CTP/HYDRO/RIVERICE/INDEX.PHP (LOWER CASE)

STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS...AVERAGE.
IN GENERAL STREAM FLOWS ARE VERY CLOSE TO AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.

REAL TIME WATER DATA IS AVAILABLE FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY BY VISITING HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV (LOWER CASE) ON THE
INTERNET.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...BELOW AVERAGE.
THE LATEST SOIL MOISTURE REPORTS SHOW THAT MOST OF THE REGION IS
REPORTING BELOW AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE AVERAGE VALUES ARE OBSERVED.

MOISTURE MONITORING CHARTS FROM NOAA`S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/SOILMST/SOILMST.SHTML
(LOWER CASE) AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

GROUND WATER...AVERAGE.
MONITORING WELLS INDICATE  THAT CURRENT GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE CLOSE
TO SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

CURRENT GROUND WATER CONDITIONS BASED ON A 30 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
CAN BE FOUND AT HTTP://PA.WATER.USGS.GOV/MONITOR/GW/INDEX.HTML
(LOWER CASE)

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...AVERAGE.
MOST WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS WITHIN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ARE
HOLDING AVERAGE STORAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS ARE MOST FLOOD
CONTROL RESERVOIRS.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LONGER RANGE...WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD APRIL 211 - APRIL 25 IS FOR
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. THE 8 TO
14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM APRIL 23 - APRIL 29 IS FOR BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)...AVERAGE.
ANOTHER TOOL USED TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING IS THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE...AHPS. AHPS GENERATES
PROBABILISTIC RIVER FORECASTS BASED ON CURRENT BASIN CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING RIVER LEVELS...SOIL MOISTURE...EXTENT AND CONDITION OF ANY
SNOW PACK...ALONG WITH 50 YEARS OF HISTORIC TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
DATA. FOR THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD... AHPS INDICATES THAT THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RIVER FLOODING IS BELOW AVERAGE COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN
HISTORICALLY OBSERVED DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. RIVER INFORMATION CAN
BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/AHPS

SUMMARY OF FLOOD POTENTIAL APRIL 16 TO APRIL 30 2015:
THE REGIONAL FLOOD POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.

OVERVIEW:
CURRENT FLOODING...NONE.
RECENT PRECIPITATION...VARIABLE.
SNOW CONDITIONS...INSIGNIFICANT.
RIVER ICE...INSIGNIFICANT.
STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS...AVERAGE.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...BELOW AVERAGE.
GROUND WATER...AVERAGE.
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...AVERAGE.
AHPS...AVERAGE.
OVERALL  FLOOD POTENTIAL...AVERAGE.

THE NEXT FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY
APRIL 30TH.

OTHER HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING
THE STATE COLLEGE INTERNET HOMEPAGE AT HTTP://ERH.NOAA.GOV/CTP
(LOWER CASE).

$$

CR



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