Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FGUS73 KDVN 241607
ESFDVN
IAC011-019-031-045-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113-
115-139-163-177-183-ILC011-015-067-071-073-085-109-131-155-161-177-
187-195-MOC045-199-151800-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1107 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Probabilistic Outlook...

This outlook provides long-range probabilistic river outlooks for
river basins in the NWS Quad Cities service area. This outlook is
divided into three parts, the first part for the probabilities of
minor, moderate and major flooding, the second part for high water
and the final part for low water.

In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS
is less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor, moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  07/27/2015 - 10/25/2015

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Mississippi River
Dubuque LD11        16.0   17.0   20.5 :   6   <5    5   <5   <5   <5
Dubuque             17.0   18.0   21.5 :   7    6    6   <5   <5   <5
Bellevue LD12       17.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Fulton LD13         16.0   18.0   20.0 :   6    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
Camanche            17.0   18.5   20.5 :   6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Le Claire LD14      11.0   12.0   13.5 :   6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Rock Island LD15    15.0   16.0   18.0 :   8    7    6    6   <5   <5
Ill. City LD16      15.0   16.0   18.0 :   7    6    6    6   <5   <5
Muscatine           16.0   18.0   20.0 :   8    7    6    6   <5   <5
New Boston LD17     15.0   16.5   18.5 :  11    7    6    6   <5    5
Keithsburg          14.0   15.5   17.0 :  14   10    7    8   <5   <5
Gladstone LD18      10.0   12.0   14.0 :  14   10    7    7   <5   <5
Burlington          15.0   16.5   18.0 :  11    9    7    8   <5    6
Keokuk LD19         16.0   17.5   19.0 :  <5    8   <5    5   <5   <5
Gregory Landing     15.0   18.0   25.0 :  15    9    5    8   <5   <5

:Maquoketa River
Manchester Hwy 20   14.0   17.0   20.0 :   8   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
Maquoketa           24.0   26.0   28.5 :   9    9    5    6   <5   <5

:Wapsipinicon River
Independence        12.0   13.0   15.0 :   5    8   <5    7   <5   <5
Anamosa Shaw Rd     14.0   15.5   19.0 :  11   15    6   12   <5    8
De Witt 4S          11.0   11.5   12.5 :  28   28   23   27   15   17

:North Skunk River
Sigourney           16.0   18.0   21.0 :  28   26   21   18   12   12

:Skunk River
Augusta             15.0   17.0   20.0 :  18   14   13   12    7    8

:Cedar River
Vinton              15.0   18.0   19.0 :  10   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
Cedar Rapids        12.0   14.0   16.0 :  13   16    7   10   <5   <5
Conesville          13.0   15.0   16.5 :  28   28   10   16   <5   <5

:Iowa River
Marengo             14.0   15.5   18.5 :  32   30   23   23   <5   <5
Iowa City           22.0   23.0   25.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Lone Tree           15.0   16.5   18.0 :   9   11   <5    8   <5   <5
Columbus Jct        19.0   22.0   23.0 :  23   23   <5    8   <5   <5
Wapello             20.0   22.0   25.0 :  25   25   17   17   <5   <5
Oakville            10.0   12.0   19.0 :  24   24    9   15   <5   <5

:English River
Kalona              14.0   16.0   18.0 :  30   31   21   15   10    7

:Des Moines River
Keosauqua           22.0   25.0   27.0 :  10    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
St Francisville     18.0   22.0   25.0 :  28   12   10    7   <5   <5

:Fox River
Wayland             15.0   18.0   20.0 :  27   15   12    8    8    5

:Pecatonica River
Freeport            13.0   14.0   16.0 :  20   17   13   13    6   <5

:Rock River
Como                10.0   11.0   12.0 :  16   16   12   14   10    8
Joslin              12.0   14.0   16.5 :  19   16   10    9    9    5
Moline              12.0   13.0   14.0 :  22   19   15   11   11    9

:Green River
Geneseo             15.0   16.5   18.0 :  15    9   12    8    9    6

:La Moine River
Colmar              20.0   22.0   24.0 :  43   27   34   20   18   10

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
ft = Feet


In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (ft) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 07/27/2015 - 10/25/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Dubuque LD11          7.0    7.2    7.4    7.5   10.6   13.7   17.0
Dubuque               9.0    9.1    9.2    9.8   12.4   15.2   18.6
Bellevue LD12         7.6    7.8    7.9    8.4   11.1   13.9   16.6
Fulton LD13           7.2    7.3    7.5    8.4   10.8   14.1   17.1
Camanche             10.5   10.7   10.8   10.9   12.6   14.8   17.8
Le Claire LD14        5.8    5.9    6.0    6.6    8.0    9.9   11.6
Rock Island LD15      7.8    7.9    8.0    8.9   11.4   14.7   16.8
Ill. City LD16        6.4    6.6    6.8    7.3   10.6   14.3   16.7
Muscatine             8.3    8.5    8.7    9.0   12.1   15.9   18.6
New Boston LD17       8.2    8.5    8.6    8.8   12.1   15.4   17.8
Keithsburg            9.0    9.1    9.2   10.0   11.8   14.5   16.5
Gladstone LD18        5.0    5.1    5.2    5.2    7.7   10.5   12.9
Burlington           10.7   10.8   10.9   11.0   13.0   15.3   17.2
Keokuk LD19           7.3    7.4    7.5    7.6    9.4   13.2   15.5
Gregory Landing       9.2    9.3    9.4   10.4   12.3   15.7   18.4

:Maquoketa River
Manchester Hwy 20     3.9    4.0    4.3    5.6    7.5   12.1   15.7
Maquoketa            11.3   11.5   12.0   13.2   16.6   22.6   26.4

:Wapsipinicon River
Independence          4.9    5.0    5.3    6.0    6.9    9.1   12.3
Anamosa Shaw Rd       5.5    5.7    5.9    7.4    9.8   14.3   17.6
De Witt 4S            6.2    6.4    6.8    8.3   11.2   12.7   13.1

:North Skunk River
Sigourney             6.0    6.8    9.3   11.9   17.2   23.2   24.6

:Skunk River
Augusta               3.8    3.9    4.9    7.5   13.3   18.8   23.5

:Cedar River
Vinton                4.0    4.2    5.2    7.6   11.5   15.1   16.6
Cedar Rapids          4.3    4.5    5.0    6.2    8.8   12.9   14.5
Conesville            7.5    7.7    8.3   10.8   13.8   14.9   15.5

:Iowa River
Marengo               8.1    8.3    9.6   12.1   15.2   17.3   17.9
Iowa City            15.7   15.7   15.7   15.7   15.9   16.1   17.5
Lone Tree            10.0   10.0   10.0   10.2   12.6   14.7   16.1
Columbus Jct         13.1   13.2   13.5   15.2   18.3   20.6   21.9
Wapello              14.5   14.7   14.8   16.7   19.9   22.5   23.8
Oakville              4.6    4.7    4.9    6.9    9.7   11.9   12.9

:English River
Kalona                4.9    5.0    6.8   10.6   15.0   17.9   19.1

:Des Moines River
Keosauqua            16.3   16.4   16.5   16.7   19.0   21.8   24.3
St Francisville      14.5   14.7   14.9   15.3   19.1   22.2   24.5

:Fox River
Wayland               3.0    3.9    5.8    8.3   15.3   18.9   21.3

:Pecatonica River
Freeport              4.5    5.1    6.2    8.5   11.8   14.8   16.0

:Rock River
Como                  5.5    5.7    5.8    5.9    7.5   12.7   16.3
Joslin                7.5    7.6    7.8    8.1   11.1   14.8   19.2
Moline                9.1    9.2    9.3    9.7   11.4   14.2   17.1

:Green River
Geneseo               4.4    4.5    5.4    7.3   10.9   17.6   21.2

:La Moine River
Colmar                7.7    7.9   10.6   17.5   22.7   25.4   26.4


In Table 3 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (ft) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Non-Exceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 07/27/2015 - 10/25/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Dubuque LD11          4.8    4.7    4.3    4.2    4.0    3.7    3.4
Dubuque               7.8    7.7    7.4    7.3    7.1    7.0    7.0
Bellevue LD12         4.6    4.4    3.8    3.6    3.4    3.1    2.9
Fulton LD13           4.8    4.7    4.4    4.3    4.1    4.0    3.9
Camanche              9.0    8.9    8.8    8.8    8.7    8.7    8.7
Le Claire LD14        4.7    4.7    4.5    4.4    4.3    4.2    4.2
Rock Island LD15      5.2    4.8    4.4    4.1    3.9    3.7    3.6
Ill. City LD16        4.2    3.8    3.5    3.4    3.3    3.2    3.1
Muscatine             6.4    6.2    6.0    5.9    5.7    5.6    5.5
New Boston LD17       4.3    3.8    3.5    3.3    3.0    2.9    2.8
Keithsburg            6.1    5.9    5.7    5.4    5.3    5.2    5.1
Gladstone LD18        1.8    1.6    1.3    1.0    0.8    0.7    0.6
Burlington            8.2    8.1    7.8    7.6    7.4    7.3    7.2
Keokuk LD19           4.1    3.7    2.6    2.3    2.1    2.0    2.0
Gregory Landing       6.8    6.5    6.3    6.2    6.2    6.1    6.1

:Maquoketa River
Manchester Hwy 20     3.7    3.7    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.5
Maquoketa            11.0   10.8   10.6   10.4   10.3   10.2   10.2

:Wapsipinicon River
Independence          4.7    4.6    4.5    4.5    4.4    4.4    4.3
Anamosa Shaw Rd       5.1    5.0    5.0    4.9    4.8    4.8    4.7
De Witt 4S            5.3    5.2    5.0    4.9    4.8    4.7    4.7

:North Skunk River
Sigourney             5.2    4.9    4.6    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.1

:Skunk River
Augusta               2.7    2.4    2.0    1.7    1.6    1.5    1.5

:Cedar River
Vinton                2.7    2.6    2.4    2.1    1.9    1.7    1.7
Cedar Rapids          3.9    3.9    3.8    3.6    3.5    3.4    3.4
Conesville            6.4    6.2    6.0    5.8    5.6    5.4    5.4

:Iowa River
Marengo               7.4    7.2    6.9    6.6    6.4    6.3    6.2
Iowa City            10.4   10.2    9.8    9.4    9.0    8.9    8.9
Lone Tree             5.4    5.2    4.8    4.2    3.8    3.6    3.6
Columbus Jct         10.2    9.9    9.7    9.3    9.0    8.7    8.7
Wapello              11.6   11.3   11.1   10.6   10.3   10.0    9.9
Oakville              1.9    1.5    1.3    0.9    0.6    0.3    0.2

:English River
Kalona                4.1    3.9    3.6    3.4    3.3    3.3    3.3

:Des Moines River
Keosauqua            11.5   10.8   10.4    9.6    9.6    9.5    9.5
St Francisville       8.5    7.4    6.9    5.6    5.6    5.5    5.5

:Fox River
Wayland               1.8    1.7    1.6    1.6    1.5    1.5    1.5

:Pecatonica River
Freeport              3.8    3.7    3.2    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.7

:Rock River
Como                  4.1    3.4    3.1    2.9    2.8    2.8    2.8
Joslin                6.0    5.0    4.7    4.4    4.2    4.1    4.1
Moline                8.5    8.1    8.0    7.9    7.8    7.8    7.7

:Green River
Geneseo               4.0    3.7    3.5    3.3    3.2    3.1    3.1

:La Moine River
Colmar                3.9    3.8    3.7    3.6    3.6    3.5    3.5

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data, including current conditions of the
river, soil moisture, snow cover, and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities, the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site at http://www.weather.gov/dvn for more weather and
water information.

The next outlook will be issued near the end of next month.

$$

Brooks




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