Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FGUS73 KEAX 192208
ESFEAX
KSC005-043-091-103-107-121-209-MOC001-003-005-013-021-025-033-037-
041-047-049-053-061-063-075-079-081-083-087-089-095-101-107-115-
117-121-129-147-159-165-171-175-177-195-197-211-227-202007-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
407 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015

...2015 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...

THIS SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA) INCLUDING THE KANSAS RIVER...MISSOURI
RIVER...AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES...IN NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI.

...THERE IS A NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PROBABILITY OF FLOODING THIS
SPRING...

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  2/21/2015 - 5/22/2015

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:DELAWARE RIVER
MUSCOTAH            27.0   28.0   36.0 :  20   22   11   19   <5   <5

:STRANGER CREEK
EASTON              17.0   18.0   23.0 :  81   81   67   70   <5   <5
TONGANOXIE          23.0   30.0   35.0 :  39   45   <5   <5   <5   <5

:KANSAS RIVER
DE SOTO             26.0   33.0   36.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:TARKIO RIVER
FAIRFAX             17.0   18.0   25.0 :  54   52   53   49   35   38

:NODAWAY RIVER
BURLINGTON JUNCTI   23.0   28.0   35.0 :  17   18   <5   <5   <5   <5

:102 RIVER
MARYVILLE           18.0   23.0   28.0 :  15   36   <5    5   <5   <5
ROSENDALE           18.0   18.1   23.0 :  17   26   16   25   <5   <5

:PLATTE RIVER
AGENCY              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  73   66   50   53   <5   <5

:LITTLE PLATTE RIVER
SMITHVILLE          27.0   30.5   35.0 :   7    7   <5   <5   <5   <5

:PLATTE RIVER
SHARPS STATION      26.0   29.0   33.0 :  66   72   33   59   <5   15
PLATTE CITY         20.0   25.0   29.0 :  72   70   41   52   10   15

:BLUE RIVER
BLUE RIDGE BOULEV   35.0   39.0   48.0 :   8   13   <5    5   <5   <5
BANNISTER ROAD      34.0   40.0   42.0 :   5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
71 HIGHWAY          61.0   66.0   68.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
63RD STREET         48.0   53.0   55.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
KANSAS CITY BLUE    33.0   38.0   44.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
STADIUM DRIVE       33.0   39.0   43.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
40 HIGHWAY          30.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
17TH STREET         24.0   25.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
12TH STREET         30.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
LAKE CITY           18.0   25.0   27.0 :  14   20   <5   <5   <5   <5

:CROOKED RIVER
RICHMOND            20.0   21.0   29.0 :  54   52   51   48   <5   <5

:WAKENDA CREEK
CARROLLTON          16.0   19.0   21.0 :  61   58   45   46   17   35

:BLACKWATER RIVER
VALLEY CITY         22.0   25.0   31.0 :  69   77   52   59   21   25
BLUE LICK           24.0   29.0   37.0 :  85   86   44   42   <5    8

:LAMINE RIVER
OTTERVILLE          15.0   18.0   26.0 :  53   67   40   52    5    7

:MONITEAU CREEK
FAYETTE             16.0   21.0   25.0 :  59   57   18   22   <5   <5

:PETITE SALINE CREEK
BOONVILLE           16.0   19.5   26.0 :  66   68   43   54   <5   14

:THOMPSON RIVER
TRENTON             30.0   33.0   37.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:GRAND RIVER
PATTONSBURG         25.0   30.0   32.0 :  12   36   <5    6   <5   <5
GALLATIN            26.0   33.0   39.0 :  23   36   <5   <5   <5   <5
CHILLICOTHE         24.0   28.0   35.0 :  67   71   46   60   <5   <5
SUMNER              26.0   28.0   40.0 :  83   80   78   78   <5   <5

:CHARITON RIVER
NOVINGER            20.0   23.0   26.0 :  23   22   11   12   <5   <5
PRAIRIE HILL        15.0   19.0   21.0 :  72   67   30   30   11   12

:SOUTH GRAND RIVER
URICH               24.0   26.0   33.0 :  75   94   68   84   <5   <5

:BIG CREEK
BLAIRSTOWN          20.0   23.0   36.0 :  77   91   58   75   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 2/21/2015 - 5/22/2015
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:DELAWARE RIVER
MUSCOTAH              8.0   12.2   17.7   22.9   26.2   28.0   28.4

:STRANGER CREEK
EASTON               11.3   15.2   17.7   19.3   20.3   20.8   21.1
TONGANOXIE           10.6   16.2   17.6   21.9   24.4   25.0   25.6

:KANSAS RIVER
DE SOTO              11.5   13.3   14.0   15.1   18.0   21.8   22.3

:TARKIO RIVER
FAIRFAX               6.9    9.5   11.9   19.4   26.6   27.7   28.1

:NODAWAY RIVER
BURLINGTON JUNCTI     5.7    8.2    9.9   13.3   17.7   24.0   24.4

:102 RIVER
MARYVILLE             8.4   10.7   12.3   14.8   17.6   19.7   21.2
ROSENDALE             4.3   10.5   12.7   15.8   17.5   19.3   20.6

:PLATTE RIVER
AGENCY               10.2   15.3   19.7   25.2   27.4   28.1   28.3

:LITTLE PLATTE RIVER
SMITHVILLE           14.1   14.7   15.6   17.0   19.5   25.3   28.3

:PLATTE RIVER
SHARPS STATION       14.3   18.2   25.3   27.1   29.3   30.5   30.7
PLATTE CITY           9.5   12.6   19.4   23.9   28.0   29.0   29.3

:BLUE RIVER
BLUE RIDGE BOULEV    26.3   26.4   27.7   29.5   32.1   34.4   39.2
BANNISTER ROAD        9.1   10.6   14.0   20.7   26.1   28.8   33.7
71 HIGHWAY           36.6   37.8   40.5   45.4   49.1   51.2   54.5
63RD STREET          25.8   26.3   27.7   31.2   35.7   38.6   43.4
KANSAS CITY BLUE     12.7   14.1   16.7   20.9   24.1   25.6   29.4
STADIUM DRIVE        10.4   11.8   15.8   19.5   23.3   25.9   31.6
40 HIGHWAY            5.8    6.7    9.0   12.0   15.7   18.1   23.2
17TH STREET           3.0    3.5    5.7    8.6   12.1   14.5   19.0
12TH STREET           9.8   11.5   14.5   17.3   20.3   22.5   27.3

:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
LAKE CITY             5.8    6.3    7.8   12.6   16.4   18.8   22.5

:CROOKED RIVER
RICHMOND             10.8   13.1   18.2   21.1   23.4   24.6   26.4

:THOMPSON RIVER
TRENTON              12.9   16.3   19.2   22.8   25.5   27.3   29.2

:GRAND RIVER
PATTONSBURG           3.5    5.5   11.2   19.6   22.9   26.0   27.1
GALLATIN              4.5    7.0   13.6   19.4   25.5   28.2   29.7
CHILLICOTHE           8.0   14.4   21.9   27.3   30.7   32.9   33.5
SUMNER               15.8   21.4   28.7   33.2   35.0   35.8   36.6

:CHARITON RIVER
NOVINGER              3.5    6.0   12.9   15.9   17.9   23.3   25.5
PRAIRIE HILL          4.9    8.6   14.8   17.2   19.3   21.2   21.5

:SOUTH GRAND RIVER
URICH                17.3   19.1   23.9   27.6   28.4   28.8   29.0

:BIG CREEK
BLAIRSTOWN           16.7   17.9   21.6   24.2   25.6   28.3   29.5

OUTLOOK:

FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD LATE FEBRUARY THROUGH LATE MAY...THE
PROBABILITY OF FLOODING IS NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.

THUNDERSTORMS...NOT SNOWMELT...WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
SPRING FLOODING IN THE LOWER THIRD OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN.
WHILE THE PROBABILITIES OF FLOODING ARE BELOW NORMAL IN SOME
CASES...MANY LOCATIONS WHICH TYPICALLY FLOOD AS A RESULT OF
NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL STILL SHOW A GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF FLOODING. IN ADDITION...TYPICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING DURING THIS
OUTLOOK PERIOD.

RECENT CONDITIONS:

FROM MID-DECEMBER THROUGH MID-FEBRUARY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE PLEASANT HILL HSA HAVE BEEN NEAR NORMAL. PRECIPITATION VARIED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION.  ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FELL ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE ROUGHLY 125
PERCENT OF NORMAL WAS REPORTED. THE DRIEST AREAS WERE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM
50 TO 70 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

PRESENT CONDITIONS:

DURING THE PAST 7 DAYS...AVERAGE STREAMFLOW VALUES WERE NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE PLEASANT HILL HSA. HOWEVER...THERE WERE A
FEW BASINS WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS
INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE PLEASANT HILL HSA. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
SOIL MOISTURE WAS FOUND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL
KANSAS.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...THERE IS NO DROUGHT ACROSS
THE PLEASANT HILL HSA. HOWEVER...ABNORMALLY DRY (D0)CONDITIONS WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS JOHNSON, MIAMI, AND LINN COUNTIES IN EASTERN KANSAS.

SNOWPACK EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLEASANT HILL HSA. WATER
EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE NOT SUBSTANTIAL AS VALUES ARE GENERALLY A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF LIQUID. LOOKING AT THE UPPER MISSOURI
BASIN...CURRENT MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT IS NEAR NORMAL.

FUTURE CONDITIONS:

FOR THE 6 TO 14 DAY PERIOD...THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK INDICATES A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
PERIOD HAS A SLIGHTLY INCREASED PROBABILITY OF BEING BELOW NORMAL.

FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH...THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES
OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

THE THREE MONTH CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD MARCH THROUGH MAY
INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION.

THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON MARCH 5TH.

PLEASE VISIT OUR HOME PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX FOR MORE
WEATHER AND FLOOD INFORMATION

$$

SAW






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