Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FGUS74 KEWX 191940
ESFEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-200815-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
240 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35...SOME RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR RIVER FLOODING WILL BE
FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. RIVERS COULD REMAIN AT
ELEVATED LEVELS INTO NEXT WEEK. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE.

COLORADO/BRAZOS BASINS...THESE BASINS WILL LIKELY SEE RAINFALL
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
6 INCHES OR MORE. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE SAN GABRIEL RIVER
AT GEORGETOWN...BULL CREEK...BARTON CREEK...WALLER CREEK...THE
COLORADO RIVER AT BASTROP...SMITHVILLE AND LA GRANGE...ONION CREEK
FROM DRIFTWOOD TO HIGHWAY 183. MANY OTHER SMALLER CREEKS AND
STREAMS COULD SEE RAPID RISES FLOODING IF THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS
CONCENTRATED IN ONE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

THE BLANCO AND SAN MARCOS BASINS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL THAT WILL LEAD TO RISES ALONG THE RIVER. IF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS OBSERVED THEN THE WATER LEVELS COULD RISE MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE UPPER GUADALUPE RIVER...ABOVE CANYON LAKE IS
EXPECTED TO SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. WE COULD SEE
HIGHER RISES IF HEAVY RAINFALL IS STATIONARY OR MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS THE BASIN. BELOW CANYON LAKE THIS AREA HAS SEEN MORE
RAINFALL IN RECENT WEEKS AND IS MUCH MORE LIKELY TO SEE RISES ON
THE RIVER. THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SEE RAINFALL OF 2 TO
4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE.

THE SAN ANTONIO RIVER WILL LIKELY SEE RISES AS RUNOFF FROM URBAN
AREAS IN SAN ANTONIO MOVE DOWNSTREAM. OTHER SMALLER CREEKS AND
STREAMS FLOWING INTO THE SAN ANTONIO WOULD ALSO ADD TO THE RISES.
ALL SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS INSIDE BEXAR COUNTY...SUCH AS
LEON...SALADO AND OLMOS WILL EXPERIENCE RISES AND SOME COULD BE
VERY RAPID IF THE RAINFALL IS HEAVY OR CONCENTRATED IN ONE AREA
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. RAINFALL IN THIS AREA IS EXPECTED
TO BE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE.

THE MEDINA...FRIO...MEDINA...DEVILS AND PECOS RIVERS HAVE SEEN
LESS RAINFALL..BUT INTENSE RAINFALL CONCENTRATED IN ONE AREA WOULD
LEAD TO RAPID RISES AND FLOODING.

THE RIO GRANDE COULD SEE RISES AT DEL RIO AND EAGLE PASS IF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS OVER THESE CITIES OR SURROUNDING
CREEKS AND STREAMS THAT FLOW INTO THE RIO GRANDE. ANOTHER THREAT
WOULD BE FROM RAINFALL IN MEXICO THAT WOULD ALSO FLOW INTO THE RIO
GRANDE.

THIS MAY BE A PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST FLOODING WOULD BE MINOR TO MODERATE.
THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AND THE DURATION.

$$



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