Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1104 AM CST THU NOV 17 2016

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Long Range
Probabilistic Outlook for the Nueces River Basin in South
Central Texas...


The Austin/San Antonio Texas National Weather Service Office
has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
(AHPS) for the Nueces River Basin in South Central Texas.
AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range
probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the
Internet.


In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate
the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels
in the next 90 days. Example: The Nueces River at Laguna
has a flood stage of 10 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
the Laguna forecast point will rise above 3.2 feet
during the next 90 days.


         Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
                    Valid 11/16/2016 - 2/14/2017


 Location        FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
 --------        ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
Nueces River
 Laguna          10.0    2.5  2.5  2.5  2.9  3.2  3.6  4.0  4.6  5.7
 Uvalde          11.0    3.2  3.2  3.2  3.7  4.2  4.4  4.9  5.6  7.5
 Asherton        20.0    4.3  4.3  4.3  4.5  5.9  7.3  9.3 12.9 16.0


West Nueces
 Bracketville    15.0    1.6  1.6  1.6  2.1  2.5  2.9  3.4  4.2  5.2


Frio River
 Concan          11.0    3.8  3.8  3.8  3.9  4.2  4.4  4.6  4.8  5.3
 Below Dry Frio  12.0    2.4  2.4  2.4  2.5  2.9  3.4  3.9  4.1  5.2
 Derby            6.0    0.6  0.6  0.6  0.8  1.2  1.5  1.7  2.0  3.4


Sabinal River
 Sabinal         12.0    3.4  3.4  3.4  3.7  4.3  4.7  5.3  5.8  6.7


Seco Creek
 Rowe Ranch      15.0    6.6  6.6  6.6  6.6  6.6  6.6  7.5  8.6  9.2


Hondo Creek
 at Hwy 173      12.0    3.2  3.2  3.2  3.2  3.3  3.8  4.1  4.5  5.2


This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take
into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.
By providing the current range of probabilistic numbers...the
level of risk associated with the long-range planning decisions
can be determined.


Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
Internet at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=ewx


Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.


$$




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