Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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MEC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-031-NHC001-003-005-007-
009-011-013-015-017-019-021815-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
215 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL FOR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN MAINE. ELSEWHERE THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IS
OVER FOR THIS SEASON.

THIS IS THE SEVENTH IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED FLOOD
POTENTIAL OUTLOOKS THAT ARE ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING
SEASONS. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE
END OF THE SNOW MELT SEASON... AND WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING BASED A NUMBER OF FACTORS.

...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

AFTER A VERY WARM WINTER... MARCH IS CONTINUING WITH THE SAME
TEMPERATURE REGIME. MARCH TEMPERATURES WILL END UP 3 TO 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL END AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY BY SUNDAY. COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION NEXT WEEK WITH WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE AFTER NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL ALSO REMAIN ACTIVE AS WE WILL HAVE SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR AT LEAST LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 2
WEEKS.

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 10 FORECAST AND 8 TO 14
DAY FORECAST CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

SNOW IS NOW GONE FROM MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE HIGH PEAKS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM THE CONNECTICUT LAKES NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. HERE SNOW
DEPTH RANGES FROM LITTLE IF ANY IN THE VALLEYS TO AS MUCH AS 20
INCHES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. SNOW SURVEYS DONE BY TRANSCANADA
SHOW 21.1 INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH AND 7.8 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT
AT MOOSE FALLS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. AT SECOND CONNECTICUT
LAKE SNOW DEPTH IS 15.3 INCHES AND 5.4 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT.
FARTHER SOUTH AT FIRST CONNECTICUT LAKE JUST 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
ON THE GROUND WITH ONLY 0.4 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT.

SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME
OF YEAR.

...WESTERN MAINE...

SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS THE GROUND IS BARE. IN THE MOUNTAINS SNOW
DEPTH IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 INCHES. THE MOST SNOW IS BEING
REPORTED FROM JACKMAN NORTH AND EAST TO PITTSTON FARM AND NORTH TO
THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE UP TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW STILL EXISTS IN
WOODED LOCATIONS. EVEN IN THESE LOCATIONS THE SNOW IS VERY SPARSE
IN OPEN AREAS.

THE WATER EQUIVALENT OF THE SNOWPACK IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 OR 4
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT FROM JACKMAN TO PITTSTON FARM AND
NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER 4 TO AS MUCH AS 8 INCHES OF WATER
REMAINS IN THE SNOWPACK.

SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME
OF YEAR.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY MAPS INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE IN
WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS DUE TO RECENT
RAIN AND SNOWMELT.

THE LONGER TERM PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX IS INDICATING ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN MAINE AND NEAR NORMAL FOR NEW
HAMPSHIRE.

RESERVOIRS IN THE KENNEBEC RIVER BASIN ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE TIME.

RESERVOIRS IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN RIVER BASIN ARE 67.2 PERCENT FULL
WHICH IS 35.6 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL.

GROUNDWATER LEVELS COURTESY OF THE USGS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. IN MAINE GROUNDWATER LEVEL ARE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING IN WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
IS OVER FOR THIS SEASON.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL FOR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN MAINE. ELSEWHERE THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IS
OVER FOR THIS SEASON.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM
SNOWMELT ALONE. RAINFALL...HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF
TIME...IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY
OF FLOODING.

ANOTHER WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8
AM FRIDAY APRIL 15.


$$

TFH



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