Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FGUS74 KHGX 161707
ESFHGX
170507-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
1207 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...


THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.
THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS.  EXAMPLE: THE BRAZOS RIVER AT RICHMOND HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 24 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE RICHMOND
FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 20.7 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                  VALID [10/15/2014 - 1/14/2014]

LOCATION     FS(FT)    90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------------------------------------------------------------------
BRAZOS RIVER
 BRYAN          43.0   9.1  9.1 10.6 12.4 16.1 17.0 20.7 23.7 30.1
EAST YEGUA CREEK
 DIME BOX       12.0   2.9  4.2  5.4  7.1  8.4  8.9  9.4  9.8 10.6
MIDDLE YEGUA CREEK
 DIME BOX       10.0   1.9  3.8  5.4  7.9  8.5  9.6 10.2 11.4 13.1
DAVIDSON CREEK
 LYONS          16.0   3.8  5.4  7.3  8.3  9.7 12.8 14.4 15.1 15.9
NAVASOTA RIVER
 NORMANGEE      15.0   3.0  5.1  7.5  9.4 13.0 13.9 15.0 15.7 17.6
LOWER BRAZOS RIVER
 HEMPSTEAD      50.0  12.9  7.8 16.4 20.3 26.1 30.2 32.2 38.3 49.9
 RICHMOND       27.0  11.4 12.1 15.3 16.5 20.7 26.4 30.1 38.0 52.4
 ROSHARON       21.0   7.2  8.1 12.4 14.1 19.3 27.0 32.7 41.7 49.8
 WEST COLUMBIA  29.0   6.9  7.6  9.7 10.4 12.7 16.0 19.2 24.2 29.8

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:   WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH
$$




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