Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1020 AM CST THU FEB 15 2018

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...

This outlook applies to the Wichita Hydrologic Service area (HSA)
which includes the Arkansas River...Smoky Hill River...Verdigris
River and Neosho River and their tributaries in central...south
central and southeast Kansas.

...There is a slightly below normal risk of flooding along most
streams and rivers this spring based on current conditions...

Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give
advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil
moisture, snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook
is issued. The vast majority of flood events in the Wichita Service
Area result from short periods of higher intensity precipitation or
longer periods of excessive precipitation.

This outlook is valid from February 15th through March 1st, 2018.

The outlook is based on current climatological conditions. However,
heavy rainfall at any time can lead to flooding even when the
snowmelt flood potential is low. Convection, not snowmelt is often
the primary driver of spring flooding in the service area.

Over the past weekend scattered amounts of light snow, mainly a
trace, fell across parts of central and south central KS with
slightly higher amounts of 2 inches in northern Russell County. This
seems to be the general trend this winter with experiencing subpar
snowfall.

Currently we are snow-free across the entire service area. For the
season so far, 5 to 10 inches of accumulated snow has been recorded
over central KS and 0.5 of an inch or less to 4 inches across the
remainder of the service area. Snowfall deficits are running between
2 to 10 inches across the area or in other words south central KS
receiving 2 to 25 percent of its normal snowfall and 25 to 75 percent
of normal snowfall over central and southeast KS. During this winter
season, frozen soils have been minimal in occurrence. Soils are not
frozen at this time.

Precipitation over the long term, the past 6 month, has mainly been
below normal. Most of the service area has received 50 to 70 percent
of its normal precipitation.

Precipitation received over the last 3 months has been less than 50
percent of normal. This equates to deficits of 1 inch over central KS
and increasing to deficits of near 5 inches across southeast KS.

There has been no reprieve in dry conditions in this recent month.
The majority of the service area received less than 25 percent of its
normal precipitation over the last 30 days.

Temperatures have been 2 to 4 degrees below normal over the last
couple of months.

January soil moisture anomaly data shows levels are below normal over
the service area.

Drought conditions have become progressively worse over the last 3
months. The first appearance of Moderate Drought (D1) occurred at the
end of November over parts of south central KS and has intensified
more so during January. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor issued
February 15th 2018...(http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu) shows most
of the service area in Severe Drought (D2) conditions over most of
south central KS and parts of central and southeast KS. The remaining
areas in central KS and southeast KS are in Moderate Drought (D1)
conditions. Lastly, a small area of Extreme Drought (D3) has crept
into parts of Harper County. These dry soils over the area will limit
Springtime flooding in terms of extent and severity.

The Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook
valid through end of May 2018, indicates drought to persists over the
entire service area with a few areas seeing some improvement in south
central and southeast KS.

The U.S. Geological Survey 28-day average streamflow conditions map
shows below normal flows covering all of southeast KS with a few
basins scattered across south central and central KS also
experiencing those same conditions. Otherwise the remaining basins
have near normal flows. (http://waterwatch.usgs.gov).

The reservoir storage in the service area is near normal. The U.S.
Corps of Engineers data indicates that the Corps reservoirs currently
have near 100 percent of their flood-control storage available at
this time.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlook for the 3 month period
March-April-May, calls for equal chances of normal, above normal, and
below normal precipitation over much of the area with exception of
the western sections of the service area favoring slightly below
normal precipitation. Slightly stronger probabilities of above normal
temperatures are favored during this period.

The 8-14 day CPC Outlook (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) indicates a
tilt towards stronger probabilities of above normal temperatures. A
slight favoring for above normal precipitation is indicated.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  02/15/2018 - 05/09/2018

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Arkansas River
Great Bend          12.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Hutchinson           8.0   13.0   19.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Haven               10.0   11.0   12.0 :   5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Derby               12.0   15.0   16.2 :  <5    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mulvane             16.5   19.0   21.0 :  <5    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
Oxford              17.0   20.0   23.0 :  10   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
Arkansas City       11.0   17.0   21.0 :  16   28   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Walnut Creek
Albert              24.0   25.0   25.7 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cow Creek
Lyons               18.0   22.0   24.7 :   6    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
Hutchinson           9.5   10.5   12.5 :  32   11   21   <5   <5   <5
:Little Arkansas River
Alta Mills          22.0   25.0   27.0 :   7   11   <5    6   <5   <5
Halstead            25.0   27.0   29.0 :   6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Sedgwick            22.0   25.0   26.0 :   7    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cowskin Creek
Wichita At 119th    18.0   22.0   24.0 :   5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Ninnescah South Fork
Murdock              8.0   10.0   12.0 :   6    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Ninnescah River
Peck                17.0   21.0   26.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Belle Plaine        23.0   24.5   26.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Whitewater River
Towanda             22.0   25.0   28.0 :  <5   11   <5    5   <5   <5
Augusta             21.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:West Branch Walnut River
El Dorado           21.0   22.0   24.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Walnut River
El Dorado           19.0   23.0   25.6 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Augusta             23.0   28.0   36.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Winfield            18.0   22.0   29.0 :  14   18    6    9   <5   <5
Arkansas City       18.0   22.0   28.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Chikaskia River
Corbin              10.0   19.0   28.0 :  25   29   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Fall River
Fredonia            17.0   27.0   36.0 :   8   20   <5    5   <5   <5
:Verdigris River
Altoona             19.0   21.0   26.0 :  11   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
Independence        30.0   47.6   53.0 :  13   27   <5   <5   <5   <5
Coffeyville         18.0   23.0   26.5 :   9   16   <5    5   <5   <5
:Cottonwood River
Florence            22.0   27.0   32.0 :  <5   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
Cottonwood Falls     9.0   11.0   18.0 :   7   16   <5    8   <5   <5
Plymouth            32.0   34.0   37.0 :   8   19    5    6   <5   <5
:Neosho River
Iola                15.0   21.0   27.0 :  18   21   <5    6   <5   <5
Chanute             23.0   28.5   35.0 :  23   28    9   13   <5   <5
Erie                29.0   32.0   36.0 :  24   33   19   26   12   15
Parsons             21.0   23.0   32.0 :  37   40   29   34   <5   <5
Oswego              17.0   20.0   25.0 :  36   36   28   27    8    9
:Salt Creek
Barnard             21.0   23.3   24.9 :   7   16    6   15   <5   <5
:Saline River
Lincoln             30.0   36.0   38.5 :  11   27    7    8   <5   <5
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg           21.0   29.0   33.9 :   9   23   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mentor              20.0   24.0   28.0 :   7   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Mulberry Creek
Salina              24.0   26.0   27.4 :   7   31    6   13   <5   <5
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria         27.0   30.0   33.1 :  18   35   10   23   <5    7
Russell             18.0   20.0   38.0 :   5    7   <5    6   <5   <5
Ellsworth           20.0   24.0   27.0 :   5   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Saline River
Russell             18.0   20.0   23.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/08/2018 - 05/09/2018
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Arkansas River
Great Bend            1.5    1.5    1.5    2.2    4.1    6.6    7.6
Hutchinson            1.2    1.2    1.6    2.1    3.4    4.1    5.0
Haven                 2.3    2.3    3.0    4.2    6.2    7.0   10.6
Derby                 1.9    2.1    2.5    3.4    5.1    9.6   11.5
Mulvane               6.8    6.9    7.3    8.1   10.0   14.1   16.4
Oxford                8.3    8.5    9.0   10.1   12.4   17.2   17.9
Arkansas City         3.8    3.9    4.4    6.3    8.8   12.7   14.6
:Walnut Creek
Albert                3.1    3.1    3.1    5.6   10.1   16.2   20.6
:Cow Creek
Lyons                 4.5    4.5    8.4   11.9   15.0   17.0   18.3
Hutchinson            2.2    2.2    4.0    7.5   10.4   11.0   11.2
:Little Arkansas River
Alta Mills            0.1    0.1    3.5    7.8   13.0   18.2   24.9
Halstead              5.9    6.2    7.9   10.7   15.4   20.3   26.2
Sedgwick              2.7    2.8    5.2    7.3   10.7   19.3   23.9
:Cowskin Creek
Wichita At 119th      7.3    7.3    9.9   11.2   14.1   16.3   18.2
:Ninnescah South Fork
Murdock               4.1    4.1    4.1    4.3    5.2    6.9    8.5
:Ninnescah River
Peck                  3.2    3.3    3.9    6.0    7.9   10.9   13.9
Belle Plaine          9.7    9.8   10.6   12.6   14.4   17.1   19.1
:Whitewater River
Towanda               1.8    3.5    4.4    7.2   10.5   17.0   21.8
Augusta               3.9    5.4    5.8    7.3    9.2   11.5   16.1
:West Branch Walnut River
El Dorado             5.8    6.6    7.6    8.4   10.7   14.3   17.8
:Walnut River
El Dorado             2.3    2.6    3.0    3.7    6.2   10.5   12.3
Augusta               5.9    6.1    6.8    7.9   11.2   18.8   22.2
Winfield              1.5    2.4    4.5    6.6   12.8   20.1   22.6
Arkansas City         2.8    3.7    5.8    8.7   12.2   15.9   17.9
:Chikaskia River
Corbin                2.2    2.2    2.3    6.4   10.1   11.2   13.3
:Fall River
Fredonia              3.5    4.7    7.2    9.4   12.6   14.6   23.4
:Verdigris River
Altoona               3.8    5.0    7.4   10.1   16.1   19.2   19.7
Independence          3.3    6.4   10.8   15.8   25.7   31.4   37.6
Coffeyville           1.1    2.2    3.1    5.5   13.6   17.7   22.6
:Cottonwood River
Florence              3.3    3.4    3.6    4.9    6.8   16.7   21.7
Cottonwood Falls      0.7    1.0    1.4    2.4    3.3    7.5   10.4
Plymouth              2.6    3.8    5.2    9.3   13.4   30.9   34.5
:Neosho River
Iola                  7.7    8.0    9.1    9.9   12.5   17.9   19.5
Chanute              10.8   11.2   12.5   16.1   22.3   28.3   32.1
Erie                 14.5   15.8   16.9   21.1   28.8   37.1   39.0
Parsons              10.7   11.9   13.2   17.6   24.2   27.0   28.8
Oswego                8.8    9.7   10.4   12.1   21.2   24.3   26.1
:Salt Creek
Barnard               4.3    4.3    4.4    8.1    9.9   16.6   23.9
:Saline River
Lincoln              11.4   11.9   12.5   17.5   25.3   31.1   38.2
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg             6.3    6.4    6.7    8.7   17.1   19.0   26.3
Mentor                3.9    4.0    4.3    6.0   13.4   16.1   21.8
:Mulberry Creek
Salina                2.4    2.4    3.3    5.4    8.8   22.3   26.4
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria          11.2   12.9   15.4   20.3   23.2   29.8   32.3
Russell               3.6    3.6    3.7    6.2    9.7   12.8   17.1
Ellsworth             1.6    1.6    2.8    5.0    8.2   13.7   20.0
:Saline River
Russell               5.7    5.7    6.1    7.3    9.2   14.5   17.4

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Based upon the above information, there is a slightly below normal
risk of spring flooding across the Wichita Service Area.

The next Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be issued
March 1st, 2018.

Visit our home page at
www.weather.gov/wichita for more weather and flood information.

$$

Salazar





























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