Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1024 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

Rainfall during the last one to three months has been near to
below normal across the area. Due to recent dry conditions
through the central portion of the area served by NWS Wilmington,
the U.S. Drought Monitor has classified a large part of the area
as abnormally dry. The area of abnormally dry conditions extends
from Georgetown and Williamsburg Counties northward through Myrtle
Beach, Conway, and Marion to Whiteville and Elizabethtown.

The table below summarizes precipitation amounts at area
observation sites through Sunday March 5th for various time
scales.

WILMINGTON NC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      1.34      3.92     -2.58        34%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      4.46      7.59     -3.13        59%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      9.65     11.09     -1.44        87%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     27.88     25.08      2.80       111%
                ONE YEAR      64.05     57.74      6.31       111%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     81.88     68.14     13.74       120%

LUMBERTON NC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      1.47      3.22     -1.75        46%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      2.68      6.09     -3.41        44%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      7.34      8.78     -1.44        84%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     24.80     18.50      6.30       134%
                ONE YEAR      52.77     43.62      9.15       121%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     67.83     51.80     16.03       131%

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH SC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      1.55      3.69     -2.14        42%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      3.24      7.22     -3.98        45%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      5.58     10.55     -4.97        53%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     25.28     22.82      2.46       111%
                ONE YEAR      51.34     52.13     -0.79        98%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     62.07     61.97      0.10       100%

FLORENCE SC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      1.77      3.16     -1.39        56%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      3.69      6.28     -2.59        59%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      8.33      9.26     -0.93        90%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     28.34     18.32     10.02       155%
                ONE YEAR      58.16     43.02     15.14       135%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     72.56     51.73     20.83       140%

Streamflow values across the area are at below normal values for
this time of year but upstream reservoir levels are near normal
levels. Soil moisture conditions are at normal to slightly below
normal levels.

During the next seven days, there is a chance of showers Tuesday
night and Wednesday and again on Sunday. Otherwise, the next seven
days are currently forecast to be dry and rainfall amounts the
next seven days are expected to be below normal. The eight to
fourteen day outlook calls for above normal rainfall. The outlook
for the rest of March through May from the Climate Prediction
Center calls for near normal rainfall.

In consideration of the above factors, this outlook calls for a
normal risk of flooding through May.

The next scheduled Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued by
March 16th.

$$

RAN



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