Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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NCC017-019-047-129-141-155-SCC031-033-041-043-051-067-069-089-
201530-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1016 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

Rainfall during the last one to three months has been near to
below normal across the area. Due to dry conditions through the
central portion of the area served by NWS Wilmington, the U.S.
Drought Monitor has classified a large part of the area as
abnormally dry.  The area of abnormally dry conditions extends
from Georgetown and Williamsburg Counties northward through
Myrtle Beach, Conway, and Marion to Whiteville and Elizabethtown.
The table below summarizes precipitation amounts at area
observation sites through Friday February 17th for various
time scales.

WILMINGTON NC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      3.80      3.75      0.05       101%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      6.48      7.32     -0.84        89%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)     11.04     10.81      0.23       102%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     36.78     26.95      9.83       136%
                ONE YEAR      65.78     57.74      8.04       114%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     82.68     67.87     14.81       122%

LUMBERTON NC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      1.68      3.07     -1.39        55%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      4.32      5.57     -1.25        78%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      7.81      8.62     -0.81        91%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     29.43     19.41     10.02       152%
                ONE YEAR      54.32     43.63     10.69       125%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     68.04     51.63     16.41       132%

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH SC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      2.65      3.71     -1.06        71%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      4.13      6.90     -2.77        60%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      5.97     10.29     -4.32        58%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     35.14     25.04     10.10       140%
                ONE YEAR      52.22     52.12      0.10       100%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     62.65     61.79      0.86       101%

FLORENCE SC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      2.73      3.06     -0.33        89%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      5.08      6.19     -1.11        82%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      9.57      8.98      0.59       107%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     32.95     19.01     13.94       173%
                ONE YEAR      59.61     43.02     16.59       139%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     72.92     51.45     21.47       142%

Streamflow values across the area are at normal to below normal
values for this time of year but upstream reservoir levels
are near normal levels.  Soil moisture conditions are normal to
above normal levels.

During the next seven days, mainly dry weather is expected,
though there is a small chance of showers tonight and Sunday and
again during the middle of the week.  During the eight to fourteen
day period, near normal rainfall is expected.  The outlooks for
March and for March through May from the Climate Prediction Center
call for above normal and near normal precipitation respectively.

In consideration of the above factors, this outlook calls for
a normal risk of flooding through May.

The next scheduled Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued by
March 2nd.

$$

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