Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
152 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

RAINFALL DURING THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAS BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...NONE OF THE AREA IS
CLASSIFIED IN ANY KIND OF DROUGHT STATUS BY THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR. THE TABLE BELOW SUMMARIZES PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT AREA
OBSERVATION SITES THROUGH MONDAY...JANUARY 25TH...FOR VARIOUS
TIME SCALES.

WILMINGTON NC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      6.02      3.56      2.46       169%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      9.74      7.10      2.64       137%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)     16.79     10.29      6.50       163%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     47.03     29.56     17.47       159%
                ONE YEAR      72.83     60.38     12.45       121%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     86.77     67.43     19.34       129%

LUMBERTON NC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      4.03      2.60      1.43       155%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      8.44      5.53      2.91       153%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)     14.35      8.27      6.08       174%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     26.41     21.28      5.13       124%
                ONE YEAR      46.70     45.60      1.10       102%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     56.85     51.45      5.40       110%

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH SC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      2.61      3.27     -0.66        80%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      4.95      6.70     -1.75        74%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)     10.55      9.75      0.80       108%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     39.71     27.29     12.42       146%
                ONE YEAR      62.60     54.60      8.00       115%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     72.78     61.24     11.54       119%

FLORENCE SC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      3.43      3.12      0.31       110%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      9.01      6.00      3.01       150%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)     13.95      8.63      5.32       162%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     37.03     20.66     16.37       179%
                ONE YEAR      56.52     45.32     11.20       125%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     65.34     51.12     14.22       128%

SEVEN DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW VALUES ACROSS THE AREA ARE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UPSTREAM RESERVOIRS ARE ALSO AT ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ABOVE
NORMAL AS WELL.

OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS...A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. DURING THE EIGHT TO
FOURTEEN DAY PERIOD...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE
OUTLOOKS FOR FEBRUARY AND FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL FROM THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CALL FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

IN CONSIDERATION OF THE ABOVE FACTORS...THIS OUTLOOK CALLS FOR
AN ABOVE NORMAL RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH APRIL.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
FEBRUARY 4TH.

$$

RAN



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