Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FGUS72 KILM 171832
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NCC017-019-047-129-141-155-SCC031-033-041-043-051-067-069-089-
180415-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
232 PM EST THU MAR 17 2016

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

RAINFALL DURING THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAS BEEN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...RAINFALL THE LAST 30 DAYS HAS
BEEN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.  AT THIS TIME...NONE OF THE AREA IS
CLASSIFIED IN ANY KIND OF DROUGHT STATUS BY THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR. THE TABLE BELOW SUMMARIZES PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT AREA
OBSERVATION SITES THROUGH THURSDAY...MARCH 16TH...FOR VARIOUS TIME
SCALES.

WILMINGTON NC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      2.55      4.11     -1.56        62%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)     11.13      7.83      3.30       142%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)     17.12     11.39      5.73       150%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     44.89     23.50     21.39       191%
                ONE YEAR      76.14     57.60     18.54       132%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     90.99     68.42     22.57       133%

LUMBERTON NC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      3.80      3.33      0.47       114%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      8.19      6.34      1.85       129%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)     15.04      8.85      6.19       170%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     28.69     17.89     10.80       160%
                ONE YEAR      47.85     43.52      4.33       110%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     61.01     51.91      9.10       118%

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH SC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      2.26      3.82     -1.56        59%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      7.46      7.45      0.01       100%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)     10.60     10.67     -0.07        99%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     36.60     21.80     14.80       168%
                ONE YEAR      65.58     52.00     13.58       126%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     76.09     62.11     13.98       123%

FLORENCE SC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      3.12      3.29     -0.17        95%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      7.45      6.34      1.11       118%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)     14.44      9.47      4.97       152%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     36.60     18.17     18.43       201%
                ONE YEAR      56.66     42.91     13.75       132%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     67.86     51.87     15.99       131%

THANKS TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...SEVEN DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW VALUES
ACROSS THE AREA ARE AT NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UPSTREAM
RESERVOIRS ARE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS ARE
SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS.  GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

DESPITE THE POSSIBILITY OF A RAINY WEEKEND...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.  DURING THE EIGHT TO
FOURTEEN DAY PERIOD...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE
OUTLOOKS FOR APRIL AND FOR APRIL THROUGH JUNE FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER CALL FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

IN CONSIDERATION OF THE ABOVE FACTORS...THIS OUTLOOK CALLS FOR
AN ABOVE NORMAL RISK OF FLOODING INTO MAY.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
MARCH 30TH.

$$

RAN



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