Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
455 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

HERE IS THE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS IN THE
MAUMEE RIVER BASIN IN NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO AND FOR
THE UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA.

IN THE TABLE BELOW THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE TO OR ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN
THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MAUMEE RIVER AT FORT WAYNE...
INDIANA HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 17 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 19.6 FEET. WABASH
INDIANA ON THE WABASH RIVER HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 14 FEET. IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE TO OR
ABOVE 14.1 FEET.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
        ...VALID FEBRUARY 23 2015 - MAY 24 2015...

MAUMEE RIVER BASIN
LOCATION         FS(FT)  95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

SAINT JOSEPH RIVER OHIO
MONTPELIER OH     12.0  10.3 11.0 11.5 12.2 13.1 13.9 14.7
NEWVILLE IN       12.0  11.6 12.2 12.5 13.0 13.8 14.7 15.3
ST. JOE FTW. IN   12.0   7.9  8.4  9.3 10.8 11.8 14.9 16.8

SAINT MARYS RIVER
DECATUR IN        17.0  11.2 13.2 14.9 16.3 18.8 20.3 20.8
MULDOON BRIDGE IN 14.0   6.7  8.0  9.1 10.5 13.2 15.6 16.9

MAUMEE RIVER
FORT WAYNE IN     17.0  11.1 11.9 13.9 15.6 17.9 19.6 20.5
DEFIANCE OH       10.0   3.5  4.3  5.1  6.2  6.9  8.4  9.5
NAPOLEON OH       12.0    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

TIFFIN RIVER
STRYKER OH        11.0  11.5 11.8 12.6 13.1 13.9 14.9 15.8

BLANCHARD RIVER
OTTAWA OH         23.0  18.2 18.7 19.6 20.8 22.4 23.5 23.9

AUGLAIZE RIVER
FORT JENNINGS OH  13.0   6.1  7.4  9.8 11.7 13.4 15.5 15.8
DEFIANCE OH       21.0  10.8 11.8 13.5 15.4 17.1 19.4 21.5

UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN
LOCATION         FS(FT)  95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

WABASH RIVER
LINN GROVE        11.0   7.2  7.4  8.3  9.2 10.2 11.4 12.8
BLUFFTON IN       10.0    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
WABASH IN         14.0   7.8  8.5 10.1 11.5 13.0 14.1 15.1
LOGANSPORT IN     15.0   6.4  7.1  8.0  8.8  9.7 10.6 10.9

TIPPECANOE RIVER
ORA IN            12.0   7.8  8.1  8.7  9.4 10.7 11.2 13.1
WINAMAC IN        10.0   6.9  7.2  8.2  9.3 10.0 11.3 15.0

MISSISSINEWA RIVER
MARION IN         12.0   3.9  4.3  5.5  6.2  7.4  8.7  9.3

SALAMONIE RIVER
WARREN IN         12.0   8.4  8.7  9.4 10.1 11.0 12.0 13.1

EEL RIVER
N. MANCHESTER IN   9.0   7.2  8.5  9.9 11.2 12.3 14.3 15.0

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW MELT AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE
RANGE OF PROBABILITIES... THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG
RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE A PART OF NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND
EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
INTERNET ADDRESSES ARE ALL IN LOWER CASE LETTERS. AHPS CAN BE FOUND
UNDER HYDROLOGY/RIVERS AND LAKES.

...SNOW COVER/SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
SNOW AND ICE STILL COVER A LARGE PART OF NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST
OHIO AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDELY VARIABLE SNOW DEPTHS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED FROM NEARLY ZERO ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
DOWNSTREAM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER WABASH BASIN...TWO TO FIVE INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TIPPECANOE...UPSTREAM UPPER WABASH...ST.
MARYS...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MAUMEE BASINS...AND FIVE TO TEN
INCHES ACROSS THE ST. JOSEPH AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MAUMEE
BASINS. SNOW WATER CONTENT WITHIN THE SNOW PACK IS GENERALLY LESS
THAN ONE INCH...HOWEVER WHERE GREATER SNOW DEPTHS ARE PRESENT ACROSS
THE ST. JOSEPH AND NORTHERN MAUMEE BASINS...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
SNOW WATER CONTENT IS REPORTED. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE FROZEN ACROSS
NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION DOWN TO A DEPTH OF FOUR INCHES...WITH SOME
AREAS REPORTING FROZEN GROUND TO AS DEEP AS NINE INCHES.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES THAT
THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
TOWARDS NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MARCH OUTLOOK
CALLS FOR MODERATELY INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...BELOW AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
AREA RIVERS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE STREAMFLOW.
MOST POINTS IN THE UPPER WABASH BASIN ARE EXPERIENCING STREAMFLOW
VALUES IN THE 25TH TO 50TH PERCENTILE...WHILE POINTS IN THE MAUMEE
BASIN ARE CLOSER TO THE 15TH TO 40TH PERCENTILE FOR STREAMFLOW. A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA STREAMS AND WATERWAYS ARE FROZEN OR ONLY
PARTIALLY OPEN. DEPTH OF RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN LOW
VELOCITY REGIONS INTO EARLY MARCH. THIS COULD LEAD TO SUBSEQUENT ICE
JAM FLOOD PROBLEMS DUE TO ICE BREAKUP AND POTENTIAL ICE JAM
FORMATION. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR ICE JAM FLOOD ISSUES APPEAR
TO BE IN THE MID MARCH TO EARLY APRIL TIMEFRAME. ICE JAMS WILL CAUSE
WATER TO PILE UP BEHIND THE JAM AND CAUSE UPSTREAM FLOODING. ICE
JAMS CAN RELEASE QUICKLY AND ALLOW LARGE QUANTITIES OF WATER TO FLOW
DOWNSTREAM IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WHICH CAN CAUSE DOWNSTREAM
FLOODING.

...OVERALL FLOOD RISK...
DUE TO INITIAL LOW STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...NEAR NORMAL SNOW WATER
CONTENT...BELOW NORMAL TEMEPRATURE OUTLOOKS AND NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION...THE OVERALL RISK FOR FLOODING IS AT OR
BELOW NORMAL AT THIS TIME. THE RISK FOR SPRING FLOODS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON FUTURE PRECIPITATION EVENTS AND POTENTIAL ICE JAM
FORMATION.

...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY...
THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE. HOWEVER...SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF
SECONDARY ROADS. TRANSFER TO A HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY
TO SAVE PROPERTY.

THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION AND
PROPERTY DAMAGE USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE EVACUATION OF PEOPLE
AND LIVESTOCK AND CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS.

THE NEXT LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN EARLY
MARCH FOR THE MAUMEE AND UPPER WABASH RIVER BASINS.

$$







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