Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FGUS74 KJAN 122331 CCA
ESFJAN
ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
140000-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
630 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO
NIGHT COULD PRODUCE SIGNFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING...


HEAVY RAINFALL FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...A STRONG AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
AND BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THEN...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
MOVES THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL INCREASES. CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR.

SOILS ARE VERY WET DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MOST OF THE RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE
FALLING. WITH THE RIVERS IN RECESSION...THE FIRST FEW INCHES OF
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES BUT RAINFALL FROM 3 TO 4
PLUS INCHES COULD BRING RIVERS TO OR ABOVE LEVELS OF THIS PAST WEEK.
HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT TIME PERIOD COULD PRODUCE SMALL STREAM
FLASH FLOODING AS SIGNIFICANT AS THIS PAST WEEKS EVENT.

MUCH OF THE PEARL RIVER AND BIG BLACK RIVER ARE IN MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOOD AS OF LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NOXUBEE RIVER AND THE
MIDDLE CHICKASAWHAY RIVER ARE EXPERIENCING MINOR FLOODING.  THESE
SHOULD HAVE A GOOD 24 HOURS TO CONTINUE FALLING. THESE RIVERS HAVE A
POTENTIAL TO EXCEED THIS PAST WEEKS RIVER CRESTS. IN NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING NEAR FORT NECESSITY ON THE
BOEUF RIVER. THIS STREAM IS STILL RISING AND COULD RISE HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM HAS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREDICTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THOSE LIVING IN FLASH
FLOOD PRONE AREAS AND AREAS AFFECTED BY LAST WEEKS SMALL STREAM
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING NEED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THIS
POTENTIAL FLOOD RISK. A FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED ON SUNDAY.

$$
MVP















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