Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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709
FGUS74 KJAN 291729
ESFJAN
ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
010000-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1230 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SHAPING UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY WITH FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE...

A deep mid-level trough will swing through the Central Plains with
an associated deepening surface low late this weekend into early
next week. This low will move slowly into the Midwest and drag a
cold front toward and through the Lower Mississippi Valley between
late Saturday and early Monday. The combination of an intense and
divergent upper level jet across the Lower Mississippi Valley and
strong influx of very moist air from the Gulf of Mexico should
enhance torrential rain potential from thunderstorms anticipated
over the forecast area, mainly Sunday. Widespread 2 to 3 inch
rainfall totals are expected but there is potential for a north to
south oriented axis in the forecast area to experience prolonged
training of storms and localized rain amounts in excess of 4 to 6
inches. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for areas along and west
of I-55 from late tonight through Sunday evening. A Flash Flood
Watch may need to be extended to east of I-55 later tonight or
tomorrow morning.

As the system moves across the area from just before daybreak Sunday
through the day before exiting eastern Mississippi during the
evening hours, rainfall rates will be very high producing flash
flooding across the ArkLaMiss region. Many small streams and rivers
will be impacted with minor to moderate river flooding possible. The
rivers most vulnerable to flooding continue to be the Big Black,
Pearl, Chickasawhay, Leaf, and Tallahala Creek. Rivers and Bayous
across Southeast Arkansas and Northeast Louisiana will also see very
sharp rises with some going into flood.

Those living along small streams and flood prone areas should take
preparations now to remove any debris from drainage systems that may
have clogged by the early April flash floods. It would be wise to
move personal items from low lying areas that flooded earlier in the
month as an extra precaution.

Once again, rainfall rates may be intense as the system moves across
and could lead to some localized flash flooding. Please stay tuned
to local media and your National Weather Service as we approach this
rainfall event.


$$

JC/MVP



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