National Weather Service Text Product Display

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5

000
FGUS74 KLCH 211617
ESFLCH
LAC001-003-009-019-039-053-055-079-099-101-113-115-TXC199-241-245-
351-361-457-LAC011-019-TXC351-361-221617-


PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1017 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010


...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG
RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SABINE RIVER BASIN
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) IN LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
HAS IMPLEMENTED THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE
(AHPS) FOR THE SABINE RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS
ENABLES THE NWS TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.
THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.


IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE SABINE RIVER NEAR
DEWEYVILLE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 24 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THE DEWEYVILLE FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 24.5 FEET
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.


      CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
         VALID FOR JANUARY 20 2010 TO APRIL 20 2010


 LOCATION     FS(FT)   90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
---------------------------------------------------------------------


SABINE RIVER
 BURKEVILLE     43    24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 25.0 25.5 26.3
 BON WEIR       30    24.7 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.8 25.1 26.3 27.8 28.8
 DEWEYVILLE     24    24.5 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.9 25.2 25.4
 ORANGE          4     1.5  1.5  1.5  1.5  1.6  1.6  1.7  1.8  1.9
BAYOU ANACOCO
 ROSEPINE       17    12.1 14.5 16.5 18.8 19.9 20.4 21.2 21.5 21.9

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT CURRENT RIVER FLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. BY
PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF
RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:  HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LCH (INTERNET
ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$
National Weather Service National Headquarters
